Alaska Results Map by House District

[Oldiesfreak1854]

How do you get/make these maps?

[minionofmidas]

All I know how to do is to take screenshots, and to use clean (or in this case cleanish but a quick search didn't turn up anywhere better, most maps still lacking Skagway and Wrangell) basemaps and color in the fields with the underrated Microsoft Paint, with the colors from the Atlas Master Key.

realisticidealist is doing stuff with ArcGIS that I've no idea how to do.

[nclib]

Listing white Obama areas and non-white Romney areas...

Prince of Wales - Hyder CA Obama 50.2, Romney 43.7; 50% nhw, 40% Native, 8% nh mixed
Petersburg Obama 48.2, Romney 47.2; 69% nhw, 16% Native, 8% nh mixed
Sitka Obama 53.0, Romney 41.5; 64% nhw, 17% Native, 9% nh mixed, 5% Hispanic
Juneau Obama 57.4, Romney 37.9; 67% nhw, 12% Native, 9% nh mixed, 6% Asian, 5% Hispanic
Hoonah - Angoon CA Obama 59.3, Romney 36.1; 46% nhw, 41% Native, 10% nh mixed
Skagway Obama 58.1, Romney 30.7; 91% nhw (very hippie / touristy kind of place. Notice that 11% Other vote? Mostly Jill Stein.)
Yakutat Obama 56.0, Romney 40.1; 40% nhw, 36% Native, 15% nh mixed
Aleutians West CA Obama 62.7 Romney 34.4;31% White, 29% Asian, 15% Native, 13% Hispanic, 6% Black

Aleutians East Romney 53.4 Obama 42.5; 36% Asian, 28% Native, 14% nhw, 12% Hispanic, 7% Black
Bristol Bay Romney 59.8 Obama 34.2; 48% White, 34% Native, 13% Mixed

Comments on the others (Juneau is expected; surprised about Aleutians West and East given their racial make-up):

[minionofmidas]

Skagway has been commented, the others are really mixed rather than White areas.

I'll really need to take a closer look at these Aleutian East places by precinct some time.

Unalaska is a navy and fisheries place and accounts for three quarters of the census population of Aleutians West, but IIRC closer one half or so of the vote. Obama won it, but his margin came from the Pribilof Islands, where people voted in person on election day and are Natives.

[Badger]

What about Aleutians East? Romney had to have done quite well among non-whites here.

[RBH]

Places listed in Aleutians East

Akutan: Obama 52, Romney 22 (24% White, 16% Native)
Cold Bay: Romney 30, Obama 1 (72% White, 17% Native)
King Cove: Romney 67, Obama 56 (47% Native, 15% White)
Sand Point: Romney 95, Obama 71 (42% Native, 28% White)

I believe he covered the Asian aspect of the Aleutians too

[Badger]

Places listed in Aleutians East

Akutan: Obama 52, Romney 22 (24% White, 16% Native)
Cold Bay: Romney 30, Obama 1 (72% White, 17% Native)
King Cove: Romney 67, Obama 56 (47% Native, 15% White)
Sand Point: Romney 95, Obama 71 (42% Native, 28% White)

I believe he covered the Asian aspect of the Aleutians too

Huh. Anyone know anything at all about these towns? What's up with Cold Bay? Wonder why Romney did so much better among non-whites here than nationally. I rea;ize Native Alaskans don't vote like, say, Shannon County SD, but still. He also dis remarkably well among Asians.

Deadliest Catch voters?

[RBH]

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[Badger]

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So the voting population is notably more white than the census? I buy that, but I still wonder what the difference between here and Aleutians West (and indeed, most of the surrounding region) is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It should be noted that with final results, the difference in swing gets slightly smaller than it was on election day. There is a reason for this. As a general rule in urban Alaska, absentee votes tilt Republican and early and provisional (Alaska calls them "question") votes lean Democratic. By contrast in rural Alaska, absentee votes lean Republican, provisional votes tilt Democratic and early votes don't exist. (Alaska has only a handful of early voting locations, located in populated parts, but which stock ballots for all districts. So the bush districts have just a couple of early votes each, presumably cast mostly by people now residing in the cities but still registered back home.)

Here is a table with results by Borough / Census Area. Precincts cutting across a boundary (about half a dozen of them) have been assigned to the Borough / Census Area including the precinct's main settlement. Absentee, question and early votes from House Districts including part of more than one Borough or CA (6, 11, and 32 through 40. 1 to 5 are in Fairbanks, 7 to 10 are in MatSu, 12 through 27 are in Anchorage, 28 to 30 are in the Kenai Pen and 31 is in Juneau) have been assigned on the principle that Obama, Romney, and Johnson/Stein/write-ins combined received the same share of the district's a/q/e vote in each Borough or part of Borough as they received of the day vote. This works very well in most areas but obviously misleads in a few cases where a HD includes areas with differing day vs absentee vs early (vs overall) turnout patterns - though not by enough to make me adopt a different scheme. Especially as correcting for that without hard data on how many people from each precinct got an a/q/e ballot would require fuzzy maths / pulling numbers out of my ass.

Ketchikan Gateway Romney 55.3, Obama 38.3
Prince of Wales - Hyder CA Obama 50.2, Romney 43.7
Wrangell Romney 64.7, Obama 31.8
Petersburg Obama 48.2, Romney 47.2
Sitka Obama 53.0, Romney 41.5
Juneau Obama 57.4, Romney 37.9
Hoonah - Angoon CA Obama 59.3, Romney 36.1
Skagway Obama 58.1, Romney 30.7
Haines Romney 47.8, Obama 45.4
Yakutat Obama 56.0, Romney 40.1
Valdez - Cordova CA Romney 58.0, Obama 36.4
Kenai Peninsula Romney 66.0 Obama 29.7
Anchorage Romney 53.0 Obama 43.2
Matanuska-Susitna Romney 71.2 Obama 24.5
Denali Romney 51.6 Obama 43.8
Southeast Fairbanks CA Romney 72.9 Obama 21.9
Fairbanks North Star Romney 58.6 Obama 36.3
Yukon - Koyukuk CA Obama 61.6 Romney 34.0
Kodiak Island Romney 57.0 Obama 38.8
Lake and Peninsula Obama 56.6 Romney 38.8
Aleutians East Romney 53.4 Obama 42.5
Aleutians West CA Obama 62.7 Romney 34.4
Bristol Bay Romney 59.8 Obama 34.2
Dillingham CA Obama 58.7 Romney 36.4
Bethel CA Obama 71.6 Romney 23.5
Wade Hampton CA Obama 77.5 Romney 16.9
Nome CA Obama 63.8 Romney 30.6
Northwest Arctic Obama 64.0 Romney 31.8
North Slope Obama 64.3 Romney 31.9

And a quick lazy map



One further note: Not only were two new Boroughs created in 2008 (Wrangell and Skagway), the next one is being voted on (which will be just a formality) in December - Petersburg. And after that, annexation of the uninhabited (but touristically used) sliver of unincorporated borough between it and Juneau to Juneau will be just a formality (Juneau wanted to annex even more territory, that is now going to Petersburg instead.) I couldn't find information on what the Census Bureau is intending to do with Kake and Port Alexander, the last remaining populated bits of the former Wrangell-Petersburg Census Area in the Unincorporated Borough. Kake (a Native settlement) is the reason Petersburg is shown in pale red rather than light blue here, though.

That's awesome Lewis! Do you have the borough results for 2008 as well?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Alaska has only a handful of early voting locations, located in populated parts, but which stock ballots for all districts. So the bush districts have just a couple of early votes each, presumably cast mostly by people now residing in the cities but still registered back home.

I'd imagine that fair number of those bush district votes are done by people who are in town for other reasons and decide to take care of voting rather than having to make a trip to their polling place on election day.

[minionofmidas]

Alaska has only a handful of early voting locations, located in populated parts, but which stock ballots for all districts. So the bush districts have just a couple of early votes each, presumably cast mostly by people now residing in the cities but still registered back home.

I'd imagine that fair number of those bush district votes are done by people who are in town for other reasons and decide to take care of voting rather than having to make a trip to their polling place on election day.

That too - although most of those that actually have to take a trip to their polling place - and they exist, oh yes they do. For an extreme example, Aleutians 1 precinct officially consists of all the island chain west of Unalaska. Several of these islands are populated, and they're far apart. Most bush settlements of any size whatsoever have a precinct of their own, however, especially in the Native part - vote by mail anyways.

[minionofmidas]

That's awesome Lewis! Do you have the borough results for 2008 as well?

Not using the same formula, but

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88046.0

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank you! This is gonna help me out in a project I have.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Nice work! 

[cinyc]

I posted this in this thread on the Political Geography & Demographics forum, but for completeness' sake, I'm also posting it here.  The Alaska Division of Elections made a 2012 precinct-level shapefile, so I can make a 2012 precinct-level map of the Presidential results.

Note that this is the election day precinct vote ONLY.  Absentee, question and early votes were NOT allocated to the precincts.  Unlike Lewis, I am not comfortable allocating things that are only reported by HD level to individual precincts.  We have no way of knowing how many absentees, etc. were requested in any individual precinct.

The Yellow lines are the Borough/Census Area Boundaries.  The grey lines are precinct boundaries:

Statewide:


Anchorage Municipality:


The older areas of the city near and around Downtown Anchorage generally voted for Obama, including the two University of Alaska at Anchorage precincts.  The rest of the city, save the ski town of Girdwood and its neighbor Indian on the city's southern outskirts, generally voted for Romney.  Stuckagain Heights was a tie.

Mat-Su Borough:


The Anchorage exurbs of the Mat-Su Valley are the Republican heartland of Alaska.  Sarah Palin is from here.  Romney won all but one precinct, often with over 70% of the vote.  The one precinct Romney lost is Talkeetna, a quirky town that is basecamp for treks to Mount McKinley/Denali.

Kenai Peninsula Borough:


The Kenai Peninsula is also prime Republican territory.  Romney won most areas, in some places with over 70% of the vote.  But Obama also racked up wins here, in the hippy community of Hope in the north, in the Alaska Native community of Tyonek on the other side of Cook Inlet, and in the areas surrounding Homer in the south of the borough.  

Note that the blue precinct on the ocean in the southwest is actually attached to Port Lyons on Kodiak Island for some bizarre reason.  It is in a separate house district with more rural areas.  I don't think many people live there, anyway.

Fairbanks-North Star Borough:


Romney won most of the borough, though generally not by as large a margin as in the Mat-Su or Kenai.  Obama's best areas were near the University of Alaska at Fairbanks in the west of the borough.  Romney did his best in North Pole and the east.  One district near downtown Fairbanks tilted Obama.

Juneau City and Borough:


The state capital of Juneau is a Democratic stronghold.  Nevertheless, Romney squeaked by in four precincts in Juneau's suburban Mendenhall Valley.  Obama won the rest, breaking 80% in Juneau Number 2 near downtown.

[Badger]

Can anyone compare House District or county results with racial make-up?

Ketchikan 66% nhw, 14% Native, 8% nh mixed, 7% Asian
POW 50% nhw, 40% Native, 8% nh mixed
Wrangell 72% nhw, 16% Native, 9% nh mixed
Petersburg 69% nhw, 16% Native, 8% nh mixed
Sitka 64% nhw, 17% Native, 9% nh mixed, 5% Hispanic
Juneau 67% nhw, 12% Native, 9% nh mixed, 6% Asian, 5% Hispanic
Hoonah-Angoon 46% nhw, 41% Native, 10% nh mixed
Haines 83% nhw, 9% Native, 5% nh mixed
Skagway 91% nhw (very hippie / touristy kind of place. Notice that 11% Other vote? Mostly Jill Stein.)
Yakutat 40% nhw, 36% Native, 15% nh mixed
Valdez-Cordova 72% nhw, 14% Native, 6% nh mixed
Kenai 83% nhw, 7% Native, 5% nh mixed
Anchorage 63% nhw, 8% Asian, 8% Native, 8% Hispanic, 7% nh mixed
Mat-Su 85% nhw, 6% nh mixed, 6% Native
Denali 91% nhw (tourism industry country, hence so marginal)
SE Fairbanks 79% nhw, 12% Native
Fairbanks North Star 74% nhw, 7% Native, 6% Hispanic, 6% nh mixed
Yukon-Koyukuk 71% Native, 22% nhw, 6% nh mixed
Kodiak 53% nhw, 20% Asian, 13% Native, 7% Hispanic, 7% nh mixed
Lake & Peninsula 66% Native, 23% White, 8% Mixed
Bristol Bay 48% White, 34% Native, 13% Mixed
Aleutians East 36% Asian, 28% Native, 14% nhw, 12% Hispanic, 7% Black
Aleutians West 31% White, 29% Asian, 15% Native, 13% Hispanic, 6% Black
Dillingham 72% Native, 18% White, 7% Mixed
Bethel 83% Native, 11% White
Wade Hampton 95% Native (no urban place of any size here)
Nome 76% Native, 16% White, 6% Mixed
NW Arctic 81% Native, 11% White
North Slope 54% Native, 32% White, 5% Mixed

Mixed race populations in rural areas are almost entirely mixed Native/White (and the few exceptions are usually Native/Black or Native/Asian rather than White/Asian or other combos). In the cities, Native/White tends to be a narrowish majority of the mixed race population.

Census results for Kodiak and the Aleutians should be treated with the utmost caution. They include a transient, mostly Filipino population present only for salmon canning season. Similarly, all those North Slope extra Whites are highly paid seasonal oil field workers who for some reason showed up on the Census this year but not ten years ago. North Slope has 2000 more census inhabitants than NW Arctic but nearly identical numbers of registered voters and votes cast.

So what's with the only notable African-American population being in the Aleutians? I would've assumed Anchorage (5.6% per 2010 census). Is it a military base and/or fishing/canning industry thing? I assumed there was more of the latter outside the Aleutians.

[minionofmidas]

Salmon canners. Africans, not Afro-Americans.

[Badger]

Salmon canners. Africans, not Afro-Americans.

Not to nitpick over PC semantics, but Afro is a hair style.