The Catholic vote

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There is no "Catholic vote". Catholics do not vote in bloc and never really have actually. But the "Catholic vote" has gone to the winner of the popular vote in every election since at least 1972 and possibly since 1932 since it just acts a microcosm of the country.

There are also no specific issues that appeal to Catholics, Catholic socons care about the same issues as evangelicals and other socons, affluent economic right Catholics care about their tax rate just like everyone else who fits the profile and liberal Catholics have the sane concerns as liberal Protestants and secular types. There is also no issues all of those groups agree on.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If I wasn't on my phone i could post maps disproving that any Catholic bloc ever existed but that'll have to wait until I'm off work.

Also LOL@the idea Catholics have ever been homogenous on sex or "social justice" issues.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

First of all the white Catholic vote is quite a bit stronger than simply "Lean R" and certainly not "slightly lean R":



The Obama-Romney numbers though aren't so as important as the trend. The reason for this shouldn't be overthought though, it's probably simply due to the fact that white youngs are far less likely than white olds to be Catholic, and the white youngs who are Catholic are likely to be TJ/Phil type socons. So basically white Catholic Democrats are dying off and they aren't being replaced because their offspring are ditching the church. I'd be willing to bet the area I live in (kind of the epitome of white liberal youngs) has a significantly higher LGBT population than it does white Catholics, and it's not just here, find any comparable area in any major city and you'd have the same. It has nothing to do with "secular Democrats" (unless you're talking about the former Catholics who are Democrats) and no one votes Republican solely because of Bill Maher.

Now here's some maps of 1960. Let me preface by saying that I'll concede there certainly was more bloc voting amongst Catholics this year for obvious reasons than most, but the only other year you can find any such bloc voting is 1928. JFK is believed to have received around 72% of the Catholic vote. That still leaves some obvious areas where such a swing didn't occur:



Long Island? Staten Island?



The most heavily Republican parts of here have also been the most Catholic (which is really just saying they don't have many Scandinavians.) That applies here as well, though admittedly not in Emmons County.



True JFK didn't do as well in the rural west as modern day Democrats do, but he didn't do that well in the rural east, which is more German and Catholic either. He also barely won Brown county too.



The most Catholic non-Hispanic part of the state also clearly sticks out as the most Republican. Sure Texas Germans have always been Republican, but that proves that other factors were at play here, not simply being Catholic (also worth nothing LBJ's home state advantage and being from the region next election clearly trumped JFK's Catholicism in a factor of what was more important for a swing.)

And if any of these areas started swinging Democratic, it wasn't until the 90s. When social issues took more prominence.

And these areas never swing together. Some got more D, some got more R as a general trend. So Catholic bloc voting only existed at any point if there was a Catholic candidate, and now that doesn't matter at all (as proven by the lack of any in 2004). Catholic bloc voting never really did exist and most certainly doesn't now. And the only trend I can see is the "Catholic vote" basically ending up just correlating with the Hispanic vote with how insanely bleeding the church is of white youngs. You'll probably just end up with it being Hispanics + white socons, so basically like the Hispanic vote but more Republican.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd be rather surprised if the Texas Germans didn't convert and intermarry as much as Midwestern Germans did.