AJC: Deal up 9 on Carter

[Miles]

Article.

Nathan Deal (R)- 47%
Jason Carter (D) -38%

Deal gets 50% with leaners included.

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[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I'm not familiar with AJC.  Is this a reliable pollster?

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm guessing if it were held today, a 53-44 victory? Is his scandal still in play?

[Miles]

I'm not familiar with AJC.  Is this a reliable pollster?

Its the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. If I'm correct, it was in the news business before it got into the polling industry.

The actual polling outfit for this was SRBI; it last poll of 2012 had 51-43 Romney, so about right.


 

[pbrower2a]

I'm not familiar with AJC.  Is this a reliable pollster?

Atlanta Journal-Constitution -- it's a good newspaper.

This poll is consistent with what we see with Georgia so far -- the state GOP may be pieces of work, but it knows how to win elections even with candidates disgusting to people who don't live in Georgia. Christian Protestant fundamentalism is strong in Georgia, and even if it has little to offer except Heaven to those who suffer in This World for corrupt politicians and rapacious plutocrats -- those people can't understand how Northern and Western secularists (or even religious people who can separate the Divine from something so profane as the economic well-being of one's family) can damn themselves to Hell.

It's a huge cultural divide, one that political campaigns cannot smooth.


   

[tmthforu94]

Believable - I'm no fan of Deal but he hasn't been an awful Governor.

[Adam Griffin]

Bacon King and I were going over the crosstabs and methodology of the poll last night. Usually, SRBI does produce fairly accurate polls and I am not totally sure that the overall margin here is that far off, but there are no fewer than a dozen issues we both spotted in regards to double-weighting, sample sizes and the like.

The most prominent one was the results among white and non-white voters. It currently shows Deal leading 67-21 among whites (believable and probably higher for Deal), but it also shows Carter leading among non-whites by a paltry 60-21. Ludicrous - no statewide Democrat has received less than 80% of the non-white vote in Georgia since Dems really began losing control in 2002.

If we assume that 60% of white undecideds would break for Deal if the election were held today and Carter performs as well as any other statewide Democrat (receiving 80-85% of the non-white vote in a midterm year), then the real race looks more like:

Whites: 74-24 Deal
Non-whites: 84-14 Carter

Deal 51, Carter 47

[windjammer]

Dean, even if he's corrupt, will probably win.