When will PA vote to the right of VA?
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  When will PA vote to the right of VA?		 « previous next »
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2016		  
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2020		  
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Author Topic: When will PA vote to the right of VA?  (Read 4451 times)
I Will Not Be Wrong
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« on: January 13, 2014, 01:28:20 PM »
Based on current trends, what do you guys say?
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2014, 01:32:20 PM »
You don't seem to know how to make a poll (too few options, including "never"), and your question is inherently loaded to assume it will at all.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2014, 01:34:27 PM »
I've heard about you, haha.
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Supersonic
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2014, 01:34:42 PM »
Quote from: Snowstalker on January 13, 2014, 01:32:20 PM
You don't seem to know how to make a poll (too few options, including "never"), and your question is inherently loaded to assume it will at all.

Calm down.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2014, 01:45:06 PM »
Quote from: Supersonic on January 13, 2014, 01:34:42 PM
Quote from: Snowstalker on January 13, 2014, 01:32:20 PM
You don't seem to know how to make a poll (too few options, including "never"), and your question is inherently loaded to assume it will at all.

Calm down.

I'm from Pennsylvania, so people making silly assumptions gets on my nerves.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2014, 01:47:00 PM »
It must be easy to tick  you off if you get frustrated over this.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2014, 02:13:29 PM »
I think it's likely in 2016, but what's holding me back is Hillary Clinton.  PA Appalachia is more powerful than VA Appalachia, so I'm confident it will happen soon.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2014, 03:28:30 PM »
Quote from: Snowstalker on January 13, 2014, 01:45:06 PM
I'm from Pennsylvania, so people making silly assumptions gets on my nerves.
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free my dawg
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« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2014, 03:36:22 PM »
Quote from: Snowstalker on January 13, 2014, 01:45:06 PM
Quote from: Supersonic on January 13, 2014, 01:34:42 PM
Quote from: Snowstalker on January 13, 2014, 01:32:20 PM
You don't seem to know how to make a poll (too few options, including "never"), and your question is inherently loaded to assume it will at all.

Calm down.

I'm from Pennsylvania, so people making silly assumptions gets on my nerves.

>complains about people making silly assumptions
>makes absurd assumptions about one of his few friends on the forum's state

just saying.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2014, 04:14:03 PM »
PA has already moved to the right of NH after the 2012 election.
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Flake
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« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2014, 04:17:47 PM »
I guess 2020, but you should add a few more options.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2014, 04:18:25 PM »
Quote from: Flo on January 13, 2014, 04:17:47 PM
I guess 2020, but you should add a few more options.
I will next time, I don't know how to change it.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2014, 05:07:39 PM »
2020 seems like a good possibility. 
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2014, 05:11:51 PM »
Quote from: TDAS04 on January 13, 2014, 05:07:39 PM
2020 seems like a good possibility. 
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henster
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« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2014, 07:19:03 PM »
I fully expect Hillary to do better than Obama in PA especially in Western PA where there a lot of white blue collar worker voters (her base) and no 'bitter clingers' comment that would linger over her like it did with Obama.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #15 on: January 13, 2014, 07:46:17 PM »
I'd say 2024, although it could potentially happen already in 2020. Smiley
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #16 on: January 13, 2014, 08:22:30 PM »
When Christie and Warner are on the ticket of their respective parties.
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DS0816
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« Reply #17 on: January 15, 2014, 02:43:48 AM »
Quote from: outofbox6 on January 13, 2014, 01:28:20 PM
Based on current trends, what do you guys say?

What "current trends"?
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2014, 12:27:42 PM »
Maybe 2016, but it all depends on who is running in the election.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #19 on: January 17, 2014, 10:56:58 AM »
The poll's incomplete. It might not happen in 2016 or 2020.

There's a non-trivial chance that the Democratic national ticket will include a Virginian, so that could be worth two points in the polls.

But it could also be that the trends stop, and that PA stays about two points to the left of VA.
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #20 on: January 18, 2014, 11:18:20 PM »
I think Republicans win PA in a presidential election soon. Pittsburgh and the suburbs of Philadelphia have been trending more red.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #21 on: January 18, 2014, 11:50:48 PM »
Quote from: New_Conservative on January 18, 2014, 11:18:20 PM
I think Republicans win PA in a presidential election soon. Pittsburgh and the suburbs of Philadelphia have been trending more red.

Pittsburgh yes, the Philly burbs definitely not. The result is a very slow Republican trend. In order to win it now, the GOP would need a candidate who can win some votes from people who are not typically part of the Republican coalition.

Also, the GOP has something of a demographic change advantage in PA since PA is very old.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2014, 11:52:58 PM »
And Chris Cristie, before the scandal, looked like he could speed up the trend, but now... Smiley
I do have hope in Scott Walker though.
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SWE
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« Reply #23 on: January 21, 2014, 08:00:47 PM »
I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen by 2020
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #24 on: January 26, 2014, 08:49:43 PM »
Too hard to tell.  Factors to consider:

PA: 

- Is the GOP maxed out in western PA?  Obama as the Dem nominee certainly helped that.
- Eastern Pocono region trending leftward due to NYC migration.
- Philadelphia suburbs. Bucks and Chester counties certainly snapped back to the GOP in 2012 compared to 2008, but still more Democratic than 2004. See next point....
- Seesaw between GOP appealing more towards Populism (NE/South Philly, SW Penn, Scranton/WB, Coal Country) vs. Business/Preppy-types (Philadelphia suburbs, non-industrial Pittsburgh suburbs).

On the last point I see practically no one appealing to both types simultaneously.  GOP= KEEP DREAMING!

VA:

-  Will NoVA continue leftward trend?  Lots of left leaning Federal employees but also GOP leaning military contractors.
-  Hampton Roads area.  Trending left or right?  Obama may have maxed out support in region due to large black population.
-  Rest of VA- Is it similar to Western PA?  Richmond suburbs and Appalachia are strongly conservative, but can Hillary Clinton turn the tide along I-81 corridor?

The similarities are striking but VA's are more extreme.  PA has more moderate liberals and conservatives while VA is sharper left or right. 
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