Irish presidential election, 2018-10-26

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Today a contested election to the ceremonial office of President of Ireland was confirmed, as two candidates were nominated by local councils. Sean Gallagher is a construction businessman, former functionary in enterprise/jobs roles, TV celebrity entrepreneur and a former candidate in 2011, finishing second. Joan Freeman is a former charity boss in the field of self-harm, and is an independent senator nominated under the FG-FF government deal.

Nominations close on 26 September; prior to that date, the incumbent Michael D. Higgins will nominate himself (or perhaps he already has). Two further candidates are likely. Gavin Duffy, a media entrepreneur and Gallagher's fellow "Dragon" (i.e. "Dragon's Den" TV investor), has secured two of the four required nominations. The Sinn Féin party will also nominate a candidate. A further suitable candidate could find enough willing nominators, probably among councils, but no such individual has emerged.

The President enjoys a ceremonial office with extremely limited powers; notably, no powers to nominate or dismiss a Taoiseach or government, dissolve a parliament, or veto a law. The President can refuse the dissolution of the lower house on the advice of a Taoiseach who has ceased to retain the support of a majority there. The President can also seek a special Supreme Court review of whether any part of a normal bill is against the Constitution prior to signing it, and a negative verdict invalidates the law. All other powers are exercised on the approval or advice of the government.

[MAINEiac4434]

Higgins is going to cakewalk this election.

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If the election were today, he would win most of the Dublin-centric support for last time's 4th and 5th place candidates, Mitchell and Norris, totalling 12.5%. Gavin Duffy is up to 3 out of 4 required nominations, with his home county Louth yet to vote.

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Duffy is nominated. Duffy's profile is more conservative than the other candidates, as a local media entrepreneur later involved in business coaching and promotion, and hunting (the English style, on horses). He's the only candidate who has overtly criticised Higgins, e.g. for praising the dictators of Cuba and Venezuela while condemning the EU. My assumption is that Duffy's entry allows Gallagher to fight with clean hands while Duffy gets tough. I wouldn't say we can reliably predict a landslide merely from the overwhelming support of the writerly classes (Twitter/journalists). It is not so easy to see a path to Higgins > 50% unless Gallagher's past voters desert him, but if anything I suspect the opposite.

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Sinn Féin parliamentarians will nominate Liadh Ní Riada, former broadcaster as Gaeilge, SF Irish language officer and current MEP in the South constituency. Her father was a very well-known and respected traditional musician and I think this gets her a lot of goodwill from non-traditional voters.

The sixth candidate, and the third "Dragon's Den" investor, on the ballot, is Peter Casey. He was born in Derry but owned a U.S. personnel company. He also has a more centre-right profile and has criticised Higgins for his Cuba/Venezuela support. I'd actually say he has the most serious political profile of the three Dragons, but Gallagher has a big head-start (30% of people voted for him last time).

And that's probably it? Several councils voted for no endorsement, and the remaining candidates seem to be too anti-mainstream politics to win nominations from mainstream politicians. It is unwise to read too much into nominations because candidates stopped seeking them after qualifying, so they are influenced by ticka ticka timing. With that proviso, Joan Freeman was mainly supported by city councils, Duffy by suburban councils and the east and south-east, Casey won in the south and Gallagher in the north-west.

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Nominations closed. In approximate order from left to right, not that it matters too much,
Michael D. Higgins (77), president, legislator, academic, poet
Liadh Ní Riada (51), member of the European Parliament, Irish language officer, Irish language TV producer and director
Joan Freeman (60), senator, charity boss, psychologist
Seán Gallagher (56), TV personality from "Dragon's Den", director of state enterprise and economic agencies, building contracting boss
Peter Casey (60? 62? press age?), TV personality from "Dragon's Den", recruitment consulting boss in America, author about & fan of Tata Steel
Gavin Duffy (58), TV personality from "Dragon's Den", recruitment consulting boss in Ireland, local radio boss

Honourable mention to Gemma O'Doherty, former investigative and lifestyle journalist, who won 1 of 4 necessary nominations.

All candidates are formally non-party except Ní Riada [Sinn Féin]. Higgins was a Labour government minister, TD and senator. Gallagher formerly sat on the national executive of Fianna Fáil and was a SpAd avant le lettre in the 90s.

The election is single transferable vote with one seat, i.e. "instant run-off". All polls prior to the campaign had Higgins at 60-70%, followed by previous second-place Gallagher in the teens, SF sub 10, then the field. The other large parties probably do not regret sitting this election out.

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You've not missed anything - nothing's happening in the Presidentials. It is set to be an extremely strong re-election on the first-round. It is certainly a dull one. Only people with a specific personal grievance dissent. Candidates fall apart. Literal car crash interviews - one excruciatingly defended his suitability after his role in causing a car crash. But most of them have no public support to begin with, so there's nowhere to fall, or at least nobody hears the tree in the forest.

The decision to stand no candidates by FG and FF looks sound, in spite of the cost to the pride of their cadres. I am coming to the belief that Varadkar and Martin are two of the most skilful party leaders of modern times. It elicits the question of what SF were doing by declaring a contested election in the first place. There's a good chance no other candidates would have been nominated if not for the fear that it would be a long promotional opportunity for SF. They are polling 5-10% here, suggesting half their regular voters are backing the incumbent.

[bigic]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1055927483365769216
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1055928195189534721

Higgins unsurprisingly re-elected. Surprisingly high result for Peter Casey.

Today, the citizens of Ireland also removed the reference to blasphemy in the Constitution:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1055929358592937985
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1055929482815639553