Casey +7

[bullmoose88]

I don't know about the ABS vote.

Sure, it might exist...heck I might be one of em...but it may not translate into votes for casey...

especially if there are strong Libertarian/Green candidates out there...

Thing is, Casey is essentially fighting Santorum on Casey's home turf...Socially Conservative Democrats...The conservative/uber partisan republicans will stay with rick...the partisan dems with casey, the liberals may (stress may) back a green while liberal moderate republicans (unless arlen can sway)...will likely stay at home...or vote Libertarian [some will vote casey...but I doubt they will in decisive numbers].

Casey has a lead...he should...that name is quite valuable...for it to be only 7 right now...before Santorum has moderated his image or thrown mudballs at Casey is something that should be observed carefully...as the battle will be waged on democratic turf.

[TeePee4Prez]

I don't know about the ABS vote.

Sure, it might exist...heck I might be one of em...but it may not translate into votes for casey...

especially if there are strong Libertarian/Green candidates out there...

Thing is, Casey is essentially fighting Santorum on Casey's home turf...Socially Conservative Democrats...The conservative/uber partisan republicans will stay with rick...the partisan dems with casey, the liberals may (stress may) back a green while liberal moderate republicans (unless arlen can sway)...will likely stay at home...or vote Libertarian [some will vote casey...but I doubt they will in decisive numbers].

Casey has a lead...he should...that name is quite valuable...for it to be only 7 right now...before Santorum has moderated his image or thrown mudballs at Casey is something that should be observed carefully...as the battle will be waged on democratic turf.

Good analysis unfortunately for me.  I know what the numbers say, but do you think us Dems would be better with a pro-choice, social liberal to rile up the base and invite out of state cash or bring back the conservative, pro-life Dems including those former Dems who are now GOP solely because of abortion?   

[TeePee4Prez]

And turncoat Barb Hafer= BAD CHOICE! 

[they don't love you like i love you]

Here's teh thing. If it was something like Casey 42 Santorum 35, you could argue Santorum wasn't in too much trouble. But Casey's almost at 50 this early. Santorum has a lot of ground to cover, he's going to need almost all the undecideds (since they break against the incumbent usually not easily) and going to sway a few Casey voters back. Anything can happen in a campaign, but having your opponent at almost 50 this early is not good.

[TeePee4Prez]

Here's teh thing. If it was something like Casey 42 Santorum 35, you could argue Santorum wasn't in too much trouble. But Casey's almost at 50 this early. Santorum has a lot of ground to cover, he's going to need almost all the undecideds (since they break against the incumbent usually not easily) and going to sway a few Casey voters back. Anything can happen in a campaign, but having your opponent at almost 50 this early is not good.

Here's another thing.  Why can't us Democrats field a good pro-choice socially liberal, economically left-center candidate?  Out of Philadelphia and suburbs, we should have someone articulate and intelligent enough as a Democrat who can look very good against Rick Santorum.  The name Lois Murphy keeps popping up in my mind as such a candidate.  She did incredibly well in such a horribly gerrymandered conservative district.  I went to bed thinking she won PA 6!  Jim Gerlach is a horrendous candidate though.  I think we can win PA elections with putting forth an effort solely in eastern PA and trying not to lose too much in SW Penn or Erie County.

[bullmoose88]

Here's teh thing. If it was something like Casey 42 Santorum 35, you could argue Santorum wasn't in too much trouble. But Casey's almost at 50 this early. Santorum has a lot of ground to cover, he's going to need almost all the undecideds (since they break against the incumbent usually not easily) and going to sway a few Casey voters back. Anything can happen in a campaign, but having your opponent at almost 50 this early is not good.

The way I see it, the Casey name almost makes him the incumbent.

Lets put it this way...I think more people recognize Casey than Santorum...hell a very well educated, fairly liberal friend of mine confused Santorum with Specter...he certainly knows who Casey is.


Look at how Democrats have won and lost this state in the last 20 or so years....

Carter=fairly populist...lost in 80
Mondale=populist lost in 84
Dukakis=came close to winning in 88, lost
Wofford won a special election...but I chalk that up to no one wanting 3 different senators in a short time span

Clinton-Gore-Kerry-won 92-04

You guys haven't won a senate seat here (in a regular election) in God knows how long...

when you guys run libertarian like centrists (socially liberal, moderate on fiscal issues, Clinton, Rendell) you win...when you run liberals...you come close, or win (Kerry, Gore).

When you run populists you generally lose.

Now think of it this way

Conservative Democrats (likely the catholic target group) have a choice...a Republican (albeit conservative on fiscal issues) who has a lot of clout and is pro life...vs a Democrat who is prolife and is likely to be a backbencher [to borrow the UK term] and marginalized like his father was nationally (casey should run for governor, he can't be marginalized there)...

If you're voting on social issues, let alone abortion...who's the better choice?

[TeePee4Prez]

In other words run a liberal or someone with a economically centrist stance that's socially liberal?  I see your point.  they win the Southeast overwhelmingly and can knock off the whiny conserative Democrats that pout over abortion.

[bullmoose88]

If you guys didn't have your heads up your collective asses...you would have run Casey against Specter, Hoffel against Santorum.


ah well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The way I see it, the Casey name almost makes him the incumbent.

No. He has more name recognition than a normal challenger, but almost incumbent he's not.

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Interesting that you've not included '76 as well, eh?

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PA was actually one of his *better* states that election. Try again.

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One of his better states U.S wide actually. Relatively speaking it was an impressive showing.

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Bubba did not run as a libertarian-like centrist

[bullmoose88]

The way I see it, the Casey name almost makes him the incumbent.

No. He has more name recognition than a normal challenger, but almost incumbent he's not.

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Interesting that you've not included '76 as well, eh?

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PA was actually one of his *better* states that election. Try again.

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One of his better states U.S wide actually. Relatively speaking it was an impressive showing.

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Bubba did not run as a libertarian-like centrist

1) 1976: I chalk Carter's win up more to Ford's poor debate showing and his pardon of Nixon. Carter only won the state by 2-3 points.

2) So what if Pennsylvania was one of Mondale's "better" states...any state with a very large urban center would have been a "better" state. Walter still lost by 7-8 points. Reagan won in Pa because he carried the area necessary to win Pennsylvania...the SE (not including Philly...not that philly's not important...but its really the burbs around it). Maybe the 1984 election really isn't important to this discussion...as the 1976 one wasn't.

3) As for Bubba...maybe in 1992 he didn't run as a libertarian...but he wasn't a populist either. By 1996 he had become republican lite.

The point remains...despite the fact there are tons of populists in PA...particularly in the NE and SW...populists generally don't do as well as liberals/libertarians in this state.

And here's why...most of the votes are in the libertarian, or liberal Southeast.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this going to turn into one of those absurdly parochial "debates" that people with oblong avatars (with a little strange thing in the top left corner) like to indulge themselves in?

[bullmoose88]

Is this going to turn into one of those absurdly parochial "debates" that people with oblong avatars (with a little strange thing in the top left corner) like to indulge themselves in?

By God I hope not.

Though (just to continue things a bit) I find the 2002 Democratic Gubernatoral Primary Map to be telling.

And what is wrong with my quirky oblong avatar? Don't knock Erie (not that I care too much...but Soult might have something to say)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By God I hope not.

I suspect it's too late now... *looks worried*

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It's interesting, but some of the statewide results from last year are interesting as well.
PA's ticket splitting habits make for interesting maps at times

[bullmoose88]

By God I hope not.

I suspect it's too late now... *looks worried*

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It's interesting, but some of the statewide results from last year are interesting as well.
PA's ticket splitting habits make for interesting maps at times

Yeah.

I voted for Casey.

Go figure...a libertarian, voting for a populist...for state treasurer.

Casey, if elected, will be marginalized, just like his father was at the convention. That move pissed of a lot of conservative democrats...and a bunch of republicans who generally liked his late father...including myself (and my family).

Thats why he should just wait for a chance to run for governor.

[Keystone Phil]

Here's teh thing. If it was something like Casey 42 Santorum 35, you could argue Santorum wasn't in too much trouble. But Casey's almost at 50 this early. Santorum has a lot of ground to cover, he's going to need almost all the undecideds (since they break against the incumbent usually not easily) and going to sway a few Casey voters back. Anything can happen in a campaign, but having your opponent at almost 50 this early is not good.

Here's another thing.  Why can't us Democrats field a good pro-choice socially liberal, economically left-center candidate?  Out of Philadelphia and suburbs, we should have someone articulate and intelligent enough as a Democrat who can look very good against Rick Santorum.  The name Lois Murphy keeps popping up in my mind as such a candidate.  She did incredibly well in such a horribly gerrymandered conservative district.  I went to bed thinking she won PA 6!  Jim Gerlach is a horrendous candidate though.  I think we can win PA elections with putting forth an effort solely in eastern PA and trying not to lose too much in SW Penn or Erie County.

Lois Murphy would be laughed at out west. Her economic views might help but socially she'd be a joke.

[Keystone Phil]

By God I hope not.

I suspect it's too late now... *looks worried*

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It's interesting, but some of the statewide results from last year are interesting as well.
PA's ticket splitting habits make for interesting maps at times

Yeah.

I voted for Casey.

I actually would have voted for Casey, too. Jean Pepper was the definition of a joke.

[Keystone Phil]

If you guys didn't have your heads up your collective asses...you would have run Casey against Specter, Hoffel against Santorum.


ah well.

Specter would have won it and Hoeffel vs. Santorum would have meant a Santorum win, too.

[bullmoose88]

See. I don't know about that.

[12th Doctor]

Please, Specter would have crushed Casey.  A four term US Senator against an Auditor General!?  What in the Hell does the Auditor General do anyway (I know, but that is what the Average Joe would ask).

All of Philadelphia would have voted Specter.

[Keystone Phil]

All of Philadelphia would have voted Specter.

The city would have went Casey but the burbs would have went crazy for Specter.

[Dave from Michigan]

Hopefully Santorum will can still win, he's a good senator and I would be more than happy to have him as my senator.

[TeePee4Prez]

Hopefully Santorum will can still win, he's a good senator and I would be more than happy to have him as my senator.

Trade for Stabenow or Levin?  GLADLY!

[they don't love you like i love you]

How we trade one of them for Coleman and the other for Santorum? That'd make me, Flyers, and you all very happy.

[Keystone Phil]

How we trade one of them for Coleman and the other for Santorum? That'd make me, Flyers, and you all very happy.

No thanks. 

[WMS]

In other words run a liberal or someone with a economically centrist stance that's socially liberal?  I see your point.  they win the Southeast overwhelmingly and can knock off the whiny conserative Democrats that pout over abortion.

I'm sure they return the sentiment right back at all of you liberal nuts, Flyers.

Keep dreaming of an alliance with the libertarian Republicans, since there's never going to be enough liberals to win by themselves.