Hillary Clinton's Maximum and Minimum EV

[RJEvans]

Based on the present political landscape.

Clinton: 390
Republican: 148

I think this is realistic. TX is not ready to turn blue, especially with Wendy Davis on the ballot this year. KY and WV (note-should be a lighter blue), while Clinton has polled relatively well there in the past, I think any Republican will likely prevail. AR will go Republican is most circumstances but I think she could eek out a small 2-4 point victory here.

Clinton: 257
Republican: 281

It may seem optimistic that her minimum is 257, but lets not forget Gore got 261 and Kerry got 251. I've contemplated FL given her current strength there but I imagine in a minimum scenario she will lose it by the smallest of margins.

[hurricanehink]

If 2016 absolutely favors the Democrats, then Pennsylvania might finally switch as well for the GOP. They did vote for a GOP senator and governor (latter who's unpopular now, but still) in 2010, so if it's that sort of year, having Hillary at the top might not be enough for the Democrats. Not really sure on the main premise of the question. Is this assuming generic Republican? Certain people could flip certain states. Martinez might be able to flip NM, Ryan WI, Ayotte NH, if the 2016 environment is as toxic as 2010 was.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Maximum:

384 to 154 D

Minimum:

326 to 212 R

[Mister Mets]

The maximum is probably Obama's 2012 map, plus Georgia, Arkansas and North Carolina. That would give her 369 electoral votes.

The minimum is probably a swing for every state to the right of New Mexico, which gives her 186 electoral votes.

[SWE]

Maximum

Minimum

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Funny that we all disagree.

[Mr. Illini]

This is barring major scandal on either side. Also, I went with best and worst case scenarios for her politically (minus scandals), and that is why the swing is so big.

Maximum

Hillary 405
Opponent 133

Minimum

Hillary 203
Opponent 335

[windjammer]

Minimum:
Hillary Clinton: 0%
Republican Candidate: 100%

-------------------------------------

Maximum:
Clinton: 100%
Republican Candidate: 0%

[RJEvans]

Funny that we all disagree.

In terms of her minimum we all seem to disagree. I have a hard time saying the Democratic base won't turn out for Clinton even in the worst of circumstances to put her over the top in MN, WI, PA, NM and NV. There are trends favorable to Republicans in most of these states but I don't think those trends are enough to warrant them turning GOP in a worst case scenario.

As for the maximum, most of us agree she will likely win VA, NC, GA. The question seems to be AZ, MO and AR. One map has her winning AR without AZ or MO, which I find hard to believe . I'm of the opinion if she wins NC and GA, she also wins MO. So I think the real question is AZ and AR.

[IceSpear]

I don't know why people seem to think Arkansas would vote for Hillary before Indiana and Missouri. If she's winning Arkansas, she'll have both of those states in the bag, especially Missouri.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I don't know why people seem to think Arkansas would vote for Hillary before Indiana and Missouri. If she's winning Arkansas, she'll have both of those states in the bag, especially Missouri.

Agreed.

[IceSpear]

Maximum: Obama 2008 states + MO, AZ, GA, AR

Hillary - 402
Republican - 136

Minimum: Kerry 2004 states - PA, WI, NH (+ NM, NV)

Hillary - 223
Republican - 315

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Funny that we all disagree.

In terms of her minimum we all seem to disagree. I have a hard time saying the Democratic base won't turn out for Clinton even in the worst of circumstances to put her over the top in MN, WI, PA, NM and NV. There are trends favorable to Republicans in most of these states but I don't think those trends are enough to warrant them turning GOP in a worst case scenario.

As for the maximum, most of us agree she will likely win VA, NC, GA. The question seems to be AZ, MO and AR. One map has her winning AR without AZ or MO, which I find hard to believe . I'm of the opinion if she wins NC and GA, she also wins MO. So I think the real question is AZ and AR.

I see your points.
I think she wins Arizona in a maximum, still loses Arkansas.

[MadmanMotley]

Max:

Clinton 368EV
Repub: 170EV

Min:

Clinton: 200EV
Repub: 338EV

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

538 and 0, respectively.

[Mister Mets]

I don't know why people seem to think Arkansas would vote for Hillary before Indiana and Missouri. If she's winning Arkansas, she'll have both of those states in the bag, especially Missouri.

She doesn't have special ties to Missouri, so I don't see any reasons to expect her to significantly outperform Obama there, even in a good year for a party. She'd have to outperform an incumbent Democratic President by more than nine points. There's no precedent for that.

She does have special ties to Arkansas, so a 24 point flip is conceivable. Hawaii went from a single digit Kerry win in 2004 to a 45 point Obama win in 2008. Arkansas went from a 15 point Bush win in 1988 to a 17 point Clinton win in 1992.

I don't think polls taken prior to a campaign are that valuable, but she does pretty well in Arkansas polls, suggesting a willingness of voters to support her under the right circumstances, which is what Maximum EV would measure.

[Cryptic]

Maximum:

Hillary: 402
GOP: 136

Minimum:

Hillary: 223
GOP: 315

[New_Conservative]

I don't know why people seem to think Arkansas would vote for Hillary before Indiana and Missouri. If she's winning Arkansas, she'll have both of those states in the bag, especially Missouri.

Exactly. This notion she will win Arkansas so easily because of Bill is confusing me.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I don't know why people seem to think Arkansas would vote for Hillary before Indiana and Missouri. If she's winning Arkansas, she'll have both of those states in the bag, especially Missouri.

Exactly. This notion she will win Arkansas so easily because of Bill is confusing me.

It's just wishful thinking from the Dems.

[Frodo]

Maximum:

Hillary Clinton: 374
generic Republican: 164
-------------------------------------------------

Minimum:

Hillary Clinton: 216
generic Republican: 322

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Frodo's minimum is the closest to mine, although I put New Hampshire as R.

[⛄]

Why does everybody think Appalachia is not viable for Clinton?

Assuming Huckabee doesn't run, Arkansas, Missouri and West Virginia are safe Democratic, Kentucky and Louisiana lean, and Tennessee is a tossup.
Why can't all those left-wing and right-wing Clinton haters accept that fact?

Since the TS asked about Clinton's maximum EV, you have to put these state into the blue (red) column!!

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Why does everybody think Appalachia is not viable for Clinton?

Assuming Huckabee doesn't run, Arkansas, Missouri and West Virginia are safe Democratic, Kentucky and Louisiana lean, and Tennessee is a tossup.
Why can't all those left-wing and right-wing Clinton haters accept that fact?

Since the TS asked about Clinton's maximum EV, you have to put these state into the blue (red) column!!

This guy is hilarious.

[⛄]

Why does everybody think Appalachia is not viable for Clinton?

Assuming Huckabee doesn't run, Arkansas, Missouri and West Virginia are safe Democratic, Kentucky and Louisiana lean, and Tennessee is a tossup.
Why can't all those left-wing and right-wing Clinton haters accept that fact?

Since the TS asked about Clinton's maximum EV, you have to put these state into the blue (red) column!!

This guy is hilarious.

No, I'm serious. Look at the 2008 and 2012 Democratic primaries. And then look at the trend statistics. The Upper Southerners are still huffy because they still think Obama had stolen Clinton's presidency.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

You do realize that West Virginia has trended R for the past six elections, right?
Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky for the past five.