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Author Topic: KY SurveyUSA: Grimes +4 or +5  (Read 1244 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
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« on: February 06, 2014, 06:10:50 pm »

Well, ya heard it from the cool guy (me)...

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20140206/NEWS010605/302030108/Bluegrass-Poll-Mitch-McConnell-trails-Alison-Lundergan-Grimes-U-S-Senate-race-46-42

Grimes beats McConnell by 4 or Bevin by 5. And that's SurveyUSA, which isn't exactly the most non-Republican pollster around.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2014, 06:25:01 pm »

Grimes and Nunn ahead, good.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2014, 09:01:09 pm »

This can't be! Sabato told me this was likely R! Just like Virginia which is only likely D despite Warner's 20 point lead.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2014, 12:06:05 am »

This can't be! Sabato told me this was likely R! Just like Virginia which is only likely D despite Warner's 20 point lead.

Sabato rates them on probability of outcome, not on poll numbers.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2014, 03:01:33 am »

SurveyUSA is historically an excellent KY pollster.

In 2004, they said Bush+21, Bush won by 20.

In 2008, they had McCain+16 and he won by 16.

Their 2012 poll cannot be used here, because it was conducted 2 months before the election while the other 2 were done just a few days before the election.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2014, 03:06:37 am »

SurveyUSA is historically an excellent KY pollster.

I will always remember SurveyUSA as the folks who literally handed the 2003 governor election to Ernie Fletcher by putting out a press release saying he had already won. That was inexcusable.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2014, 03:16:10 am »

SurveyUSA is historically an excellent KY pollster.

I will always remember SurveyUSA as the folks who literally handed the 2003 governor election to Ernie Fletcher by putting out a press release saying he had already won. That was inexcusable.

Do you mean this ?

Quote
REPUBLICANS CAPTURE KY GOV SEAT; FLETCHER BEATS CHANDLER BY 8 PTS

CAMPAIGN HELP FROM PRESIDENT BUSH ON 10/31 & 11/1 HELPS SEAL DEAL FOR GOP

* IN A BITTER BATTLE FOR KY GOVERNOR, REPUBLICAN ERNIE FLETCHER DEFEATS DEMOCRAT BEN CHANDLER 52% TO 44%, ACCORDING TO THIS LATEST EXCLUSIVE TRACKING POLL OF 755 CERTAIN VOTERS CONDUCTED 10/30 + 10/31 + 11/1 BY SURVEYUSA. MARGIN OF ERROR 3.6%.
 
* IN 8 POLLS SINCE 7/1, FLETCHER NEVER TRAILED. TODAY'S 8-PT LEAD IS THE GOP'S LARGEST.

* CHANDLER PULLED EVEN TWICE, BUT NEVER SCORED MORE THAN 46% OF VOTE IN ANY SURVEY.
 
* 28% OF DEMOCRATS CROSS-OVER AND VOTE GOP. 12% OF REPUBLICANS CROSS-OVER & VOTE DEM.
 
* IN CRITICAL WESTERN KY, FLETCHER WINS BY 16 PTS, 55% TO 39%.

* IN NORTH CENTRAL KY, FLETCHER WINS BY 11 PTS, 54% TO 43%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/KY031102govtrack.pdf

...

I don't think it's a sign that they are a Republican company, but more that they were absolutely sure he'd win and they were arguing it this way ("Chandler never led", "this is the biggest lead so far").
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2014, 03:19:33 am »

SurveyUSA is historically an excellent KY pollster.

I will always remember SurveyUSA as the folks who literally handed the 2003 governor election to Ernie Fletcher by putting out a press release saying he had already won. That was inexcusable.

Do you mean this ?

I think that's the one. It might not have mattered, except that the media in Kentucky was so militantly pro-Fletcher that they ran with it.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2014, 03:22:23 am »

Another interesting thing about that 2003 poll was that the youngest voters were the most Republican back then, unlike today.
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morgieb
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« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2014, 04:58:37 am »

Time to move this to Toss-up?

I can't think of a poll except for Rassy that had McConnell had in a comfortable position at all. There's only so long that you can ignore polls.
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2014, 06:50:55 am »

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Survey USA on 2014-02-03

Summary: D: 46%, R: 42%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Cryptic
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« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2014, 04:52:09 am »

Looks promising! Still a ways to go and a lot can change, but still nice to see.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2014, 01:41:49 pm »

This can't be! Sabato told me this was likely R! Just like Virginia which is only likely D despite Warner's 20 point lead.

Sabato rates them on probability of outcome, not on poll numbers.

So VA is just as likely to go R as KY is to go D?

I know poll numbers aren't everything. But every single poll so far has shown that assumption to be pretty asinine.
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