The Republicanism of the Missouri legislature

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How did Missouri end up with such a Republican legislature? It's a state that regularly elects Democrats statewide, but the legislature isn't even close.

Is there any chance of bringing the Republican margins back down to non-ridiculous levels any time soon?

[freepcrusher]

its a mix between term limits and clustering

[Indy Texas]

For most of the 20th century, Missouri's Democrats were in St. Louis, Kansas City and the rural Southern part of the state.

The rural Southern party of the state swung Republican with the rest of the South.

St. Louis and Kansas City have been stagnating or declining in population for the past several decades and exercise less and less clout within the state.

[ElectionsGuy]

For most of the 20th century, Missouri's Democrats were in St. Louis, Kansas City and the rural Southern part of the state.

The rural Southern party of the state swung Republican with the rest of the South.

St. Louis and Kansas City have been stagnating or declining in population for the past several decades and exercise less and less clout within the state.

This plus I think it would be easy to gerrymander because all the democratic voters are packed into certain areas whereas republican voters are spread across all of rural Missouri.

[Kevinstat]

For most of the 20th century, Missouri's Democrats were in St. Louis, Kansas City and the rural Southern part of the state.

The rural Southern party of the state swung Republican with the rest of the South.

St. Louis and Kansas City have been stagnating or declining in population for the past several decades and exercise less and less clout within the state.

Not southwestern Missouri though.  I think that has long been Republican like northwestern Arkansas.

[HAnnA MArin County]

For most of the 20th century, Missouri's Democrats were in St. Louis, Kansas City and the rural Southern part of the state.

The rural Southern party of the state swung Republican with the rest of the South.

St. Louis and Kansas City have been stagnating or declining in population for the past several decades and exercise less and less clout within the state.

Not southwestern Missouri though.  I think that has long been Republican like northwestern Arkansas.

I think he was referring to Southeast Missouri (or the Bootheel, as some non-Missourians refer to it). If you look at a map of the current districts in the Missouri House of Representatives, you'll see red everywhere except in and around St. Louis and Kansas City, and Columbia to a lesser extent. There's only about four splashes of blue outside the main urban areas, and three of these are in Southeast Missouri: you have District 118 represented by Ben Harris which contains some of the Lead Belt around Washington County as well as some sections of Jefferson County; District 117 represented by Linda Black which is based in St. Francois County, also part of the Lead Belt; and District 149 represented by Steve Hodges which is based in the Bootheel counties of Mississippi and New Madrid. These are some of the handful of rural areas in the state that have not completely abandoned their Democratic roots; the right kind of Democrat can still win in these counties and still do (see Jay Nixon, Claire McCaskill, etc.) 

[politicallefty]

Wasn't Missouri the state where minority Democrats ensured their minority status in order to protect minority districts at the expense of the party? From what I recall, Governor Nixon vetoed the Republican gerrymanders, but was overridden by the Republican majorities with the support of several Democrats (prior to the Republicans reaching supermajority status).

In terms of the Congressional map, 5R-2D and one toss-up was definitely achievable under a fair map. All that had to happen was for Democrats to sustain Nixon's veto. Instead, it's 6R-2D, probably for the remainder of the decade. If I had to guess, the legislative maps are similar to that of the Congressional map. Missouri's already a tough state for Democrats, with their voters mostly in St. Louis and Kansas City. In a state like that, the gerrymandering really exacerbates the already problematic geography for Democrats.

I think the best Democrats can hope for is to reduce the supermajorities down to a simple majority.

[All Along The Watchtower]

What about north-central Missouri? (IIRC, I think there was an area called "Little Dixie" somewhere around there.) How has it voted over the years?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Aren't St. Joseph and Kirksville fairly Democratic too?

Let's face it, other states have the same problem of Democrats being too concentrated in the cities. But their legislatures don't always seem as bad as that of Missouri.

[Sol]

Aren't St. Joseph and Kirksville fairly Democratic too?

Let's face it, other states have the same problem of Democrats being too concentrated in the cities. But their legislatures don't always seem as bad as that of Missouri.

Missouri is also a lean GOP state, so geographical packing only emphasizes the natural tendencies  anyway.