Trend of States relative from previous election to national change 2008-2012

[hopper]

The trend from 2008-2012 was D+1 so I used Virginia as the trend state since it was the closest average to the national vote.

Utah R+17
Indiana R+8
Montana R+8
North Dakota R+8
Missouri R+6
South Dakota R+6
Illinois R+5
Wyoming R+5
Michigan R+4
Wisconsin R+4
Delaware R+3
Idaho R+3
Kansas R+3
Kentucky R+3
Nebraska R+3
Connecticut R+2
New Mexico R+2
Nevada R+2
Pennsylvania R+2
Tennessee R+2
New Hampshire R+1
Texas R+1
Arkansas R+0
Colorado R+0
Iowa R+0
Trend D+1
Florida D+1
Georgia D+1
Hawaii D+1
Maine D+1
Massachusetts D+1
Minnesota D+1
North Carolina D+1
Virginia D+1
Washington D+1
Washington DC D+1
California D+2
Ohio D+2
South Carolina D+2
Alabama D+3
Arizona D+3
Rhode Island D+3
Maryland D+4
Louisiana D+5
New York D+5
Mississippi D+6
New Jersey D+6
Alaska D+11

[ElectionsGuy]

Good stuff, but where's West Virginia?

[hopper]

Good stuff, but where's West Virginia?

R+10

[smoltchanov]

And Vermont?

[eric82oslo]

What does national trend D +1 mean? In what sense did the US trend Democratic in 2012?

[dmmidmi]

I'm also confused about this.

Michigan 2008
Obama: 57.33% (4.47% higher than the national average)
McCain: 40.89% (4.71% lower than the national average)

Michigan 2012
Obama: 54.04% (3.03% higher than the national average)
Romney: 44.58% (2.57% lower than the national average)

Percentage difference between 2008 and 2012 (raw percentages)
Obama: -3.29% from 2008
Romney: +3.69% from 2008

Does the R+4 that you are referring to reflect Mitt Romney's raw percentage increase in Michigan from the previous year? Rather than his performance against the national average?

[Devils30]

It's all here anyway, too much work doing that.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2012&def=tnd&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0

[eric82oslo]

It's all here anyway, too much work doing that.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2012&def=tnd&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0

Thanks.

So the top 10 Democratic trending 2012 states were:

1. Alaska - D +10.95%
2. New Jersey - D +5.62%
3. Mississippi - D +5.08%
4. Louisiana - D +4.83%
5. New York - D +4.73%
6. Maryland - D +4.04%
7. Rhode Island - D +3.06%
8. Arizona - D +2.85%
9. Alabama - 2.8%
10. California - 2.47%

Top 10 Republican trending 2012 states:

1. Utah - R +16.49% (probably trended 12-18% more Republican due to Romney being a Mormon)
2. West Virginia - R +10.19%
3. Montana - R +7.86%
4. Indiana - R +7.8%
5. North Dakota - R +7.56%
6. South Dakota - R +6.21%
7. Missouri - R +5.82%
8. Wyoming - R + 5.18%
9. Illinois - R +4.86%

Also interesting to see is that every single one of the 8 Deep South states (Florida, North Carolina & Virginia also included) - that is the states with a very high percentage of blacks - trended Democratic in 2012, while the entire Inner South/Appalachian South trended Republican.

Finally, 23 states + D.C. trended Democratic, while 27 states trended Republican. All compared/relative to the national average trend of course.