I think it is Ohio. Hillary struggles in CO. I can see The GOP nominee winning the state of CO, also. NM is to the left of Ohio and the two states have voted identically since 1912. 2000 when Gore didn't win, NM voted correctly for the popular vote winner. Especially, if it is Jeb, the bellweathers will be OH.
I doubt it. Ohio is one of the only states where Obama managed to underperform polling in 2012. In light of all the unique circumstances there, it should have been the high water mark for Dem performance in Ohio relative to the country. And yet he failed to even match his national margin (Kerry in 2004 is still the Dem high water mark in Ohio- he made it vote left of the nation). All things considered, I would be more concerned that Ohio slips off the playing field in the GOP direction, similar to Missouri.
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