Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 10, 2019, 01:41:36 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  LA-PPP: Landrieu +1
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: LA-PPP: Landrieu +1  (Read 1407 times)
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,336
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 11, 2014, 03:03:02 pm »
« edited: February 11, 2014, 03:07:45 pm by Mardi Gras Miles »

Report.

Primary:

Landrieu- 43%
Cassidy- 25%
Hollis- 5%
Maness- 3%
Unsure- 25%

Runoff:

Landrieu- 45%
Cassidy- 44%

Landrieu- 48%
Hollis- 42%

Landrieu- 47%
Maness- 42%

Landrieu's approval is down to 37/52 approval.

Obama Approval- 39/56
ACA- 33/53

For funzies, Phil Roberston beats Landrieu 46-42 and draws 13% in the primary.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,745
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2014, 03:15:30 pm »

Define or be defined, and the race is now nationalized. Mildly surprised at the speed and a bit puzzled at the high undecided.
Logged
dmmidmi
dmwestmi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,095
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2014, 03:20:57 pm »

Landrieu's approval is lower than the President's? Yikes.

Mary's still probably a talented enough politician to squeak out a win.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,054
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2014, 03:25:31 pm »

Landrieu needs to be ahead by more than 1 in the runoff in order to win - I suspect the runoff electorate will be considerably more Republican than the primary.
Logged
ModerateVAVoter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,424


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 11, 2014, 03:34:02 pm »

I'm surprised. This isn't all that off from the Harper (R) poll on Louisiana.
Logged
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,727
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 11, 2014, 03:50:05 pm »

I think Landrieu will win the run off as long as she isn't the deciding vote for control of the Senate.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,336
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2014, 03:55:43 pm »

Landrieu needs to be ahead by more than 1 in the runoff in order to win - I suspect the runoff electorate will be considerably more Republican than the primary.

I thought I already disproved this. Cassidy will likely run a campaign similar to Terrell's. Lets see how that went in 2002:

Primary
White turnout: 48.4%
Black turnout: 40.0%

Runoff
White turnout: 46.4%
Black turnout: 40.8%
Logged
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,027
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2014, 04:00:19 pm »

She and Hagan have the same problem: Unanswered negative ads.


I'm expecting Hagan to start dropping ads after the GOP Primary, but Landrieu doesn't have an excuse for not hitting the airwaves.
Logged
ModerateVAVoter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,424


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2014, 04:01:23 pm »

She and Hagan have the same problem: Unanswered negative ads.


I'm expecting Hagan to start dropping ads after the GOP Primary, but Landrieu doesn't have an excuse for not hitting the airwaves.

I thought Landrieu has been running ads talking about her attempts to fix ACA? I was under the impression she was for at least a few weeks by now.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,336
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 11, 2014, 04:17:15 pm »
« Edited: February 11, 2014, 04:21:21 pm by Mardi Gras Miles »

I thought Landrieu has been running ads talking about her attempts to fix ACA? I was under the impression she was for at least a few weeks by now.

But not of the sheer magnitude that AFP has spent against her. She's getting help from a new national SuperPAC so that should help in fighting back.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,700
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2014, 04:17:56 pm »

I think Landrieu will win the run off as long as she isn't the deciding vote for control of the Senate.

And that can very well happen, in fact its kind of likely.

But surprised at this poll overall, nationwide democrats are not looking too good, and keeping those Romney/normal republican voters will be tough for Landrieu and other Senate democrats.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,336
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2014, 04:26:09 pm »

New Poll: Louisiana Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-02-09

Summary: D: 45%, R: 44%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,336
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2014, 09:18:58 pm »

John Couvillion, a local Republican strategist who I like to follow, gives his take on this. He says PPP favors Landrieu by 2-3 points. However, I take issues with a few of his points. His conclusion is based on likely voters; I think its too early in the cycle to be dealing with likely voters.

Second, he's projecting an electorate similar to 2010; though black participation has steadily risen over the past decade, its a bit bleaker when looking at off-years:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Thats basically the challenge for Landrieu, and why she's running on Obamacare- getting black turnout as close to Presidential levels as possible is important.  
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,745
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2014, 09:38:12 pm »

Wonder what Maginnis thinks. Agreed about being ridiculously early for an LV screen, not till after Labor Day minimum.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC