LA-PPP: Landrieu +1

[Miles]

Report.

Primary:

Landrieu- 43%
Cassidy- 25%
Hollis- 5%
Maness- 3%
Unsure- 25%

Runoff:

Landrieu- 45%
Cassidy- 44%

Landrieu- 48%
Hollis- 42%

Landrieu- 47%
Maness- 42%

Landrieu's approval is down to 37/52 approval.

Obama Approval- 39/56
ACA- 33/53

For funzies, Phil Roberston beats Landrieu 46-42 and draws 13% in the primary.

[RogueBeaver]

Define or be defined, and the race is now nationalized. Mildly surprised at the speed and a bit puzzled at the high undecided.

[dmmidmi]

Landrieu's approval is lower than the President's? Yikes.

Mary's still probably a talented enough politician to squeak out a win.

[tmthforu94]

Landrieu needs to be ahead by more than 1 in the runoff in order to win - I suspect the runoff electorate will be considerably more Republican than the primary.

[moderatevoter]

I'm surprised. This isn't all that off from the Harper (R) poll on Louisiana.

[IceSpear]

I think Landrieu will win the run off as long as she isn't the deciding vote for control of the Senate.

[Miles]

Landrieu needs to be ahead by more than 1 in the runoff in order to win - I suspect the runoff electorate will be considerably more Republican than the primary.

I thought I already disproved this. Cassidy will likely run a campaign similar to Terrell's. Lets see how that went in 2002:

Primary
White turnout: 48.4%
Black turnout: 40.0%

Runoff
White turnout: 46.4%
Black turnout: 40.8%

[publicunofficial]

She and Hagan have the same problem: Unanswered negative ads.


I'm expecting Hagan to start dropping ads after the GOP Primary, but Landrieu doesn't have an excuse for not hitting the airwaves.

[moderatevoter]

She and Hagan have the same problem: Unanswered negative ads.


I'm expecting Hagan to start dropping ads after the GOP Primary, but Landrieu doesn't have an excuse for not hitting the airwaves.

I thought Landrieu has been running ads talking about her attempts to fix ACA? I was under the impression she was for at least a few weeks by now.

[Miles]

I thought Landrieu has been running ads talking about her attempts to fix ACA? I was under the impression she was for at least a few weeks by now.

But not of the sheer magnitude that AFP has spent against her. She's getting help from a new national SuperPAC so that should help in fighting back.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think Landrieu will win the run off as long as she isn't the deciding vote for control of the Senate.

And that can very well happen, in fact its kind of likely.

But surprised at this poll overall, nationwide democrats are not looking too good, and keeping those Romney/normal republican voters will be tough for Landrieu and other Senate democrats.

[Miles]

New Poll: Louisiana Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-02-09

Summary: D: 45%, R: 44%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Miles]

John Couvillion, a local Republican strategist who I like to follow, gives his take on this. He says PPP favors Landrieu by 2-3 points. However, I take issues with a few of his points. His conclusion is based on likely voters; I think its too early in the cycle to be dealing with likely voters.

Second, he's projecting an electorate similar to 2010; though black participation has steadily risen over the past decade, its a bit bleaker when looking at off-years:

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Thats basically the challenge for Landrieu, and why she's running on Obamacare- getting black turnout as close to Presidential levels as possible is important.  

[RogueBeaver]

Wonder what Maginnis thinks. Agreed about being ridiculously early for an LV screen, not till after Labor Day minimum.