Gordon to the rescue

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not really sure. Inbetween leaning towards apathy

[Notre Dame rules!]

Wouldn't leaning towards apathy favor the Tories. 

In '94, only the GOP base was fired up to vote, and we all know the result of that.  It seems that general apathy always favors the party that has the most dedicated supporters--Conservatives, Communists, and the fringes.  Mainline liberal parties tend to get nasty surprises when interest is low.

[Democratic Hawk]

Or maybe not....

Newsnight Poll: 21st March
Compliled by the B.E.S

CON 38.8%
LAB 36%
LIB 17.4%

I can't find this poll online though.

To my knowledge (as I understood it from reading the Daily Express) the BES did some kind of metaanalysis of recent polling data exclusively counting only those respondents who said that they were "certain to vote" and found that the Tories led Labour by 2.8%

If repeated in a general election, Labour would have 310 seats, the Tories 270 and the Lib Dems 36. Labour would be 14 short of an overall majority [not allowing for any tactical voting]. The Express said the most likely outcome would be a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition government

Apathy among its base is the biggest threat to Labour

The latest FT (Mori) has Labour and the Tories both on 37% (Lab having a 46 seat maj) and the latest Daily Telegraph (YouGov) has Labour on 35% and the Tories on 34% (Lab having a 58 seat maj)

At this point, I'd guess Labour is ahead by 5 or 6 (in other words, its not as high as 12 or as low as evens)

Dave

[Notre Dame rules!]

What demo is giving  the Tories their greatest support.  I undestand that Karl Rove is advising them to pursue a 'gray' strategy by targeting older voters, the group most likely to vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What demo is giving  the Tories their greatest support.  I undestand that Karl Rove is advising them to pursue a 'gray' strategy by targeting older voters, the group most likely to vote.

The old stereotype of a typical Tory voter is a middle class (U.K definition) old woman with disturbingly right wing views on certain issues.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Okay, I understand the middle class demo and the elderly demo, but what distrurbing right wing views do these middle class old gals have?  Is the tax on their pension to high? Are they tired of waiting for months for medical procedures? Are there Wogs running about the place?

Here in the States, we rarely get MSM coverage of the political issues of even our closest allies: Britain, France, Germany, Japan, etc.

The best we can hope for is for Anderson Cooper to mention who won in his 360 roundup.  Unless US soldiers are shooting at you, our media isn't particularly interested in what is going on in your country--I'm sad to say.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Like I said it's a stereotype (I should add that middle class means white collar/fairly affluent in the U.K).

Generally speaking it's things like wanting all black/asian people to be deported etc. etc.

It's a stereotype though

[afleitch]

I do not think the Conservative Party ever had a policy on deportation and I do not think the vast majority of Conservatives would want one! If that's the case, why do the BNP seem to do well in traditional industrial (Labour)heartlands It's a very outdated and incorrect stereotype and you really should know better or  'i'll have t'roll out t' cap n't whippet n't Lancashire hotpot bah gum',stereotype myself!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If that's the case, why do the BNP seem to do well in traditional industrial (Labour)heartlands

Actually the best BNP areas tend to have a (collapsed) tradition of working class Toryism... bearing that in mind it's suprising that they haven't done very well in Birmingham... I think that that's partly because of the over-large wards they use in Brum, and because the area they'd do best in (Yardley: mostly lower middle class with some more skilled working class pockets. White flight for the most part) is in the pocket of John Hemming (his failure to win Yardley three times in a row at Westminster is somewhat amusing actually... although he'll probably get in this year and be a one termer due to unfavourable boundary changes...) at local level. When his personality cult machine finally collapses, they could do disturbingly well out there...

On the other hand, it's true that in the East Midlands, UKIP's best areas in the Euro election were socially conservative Labour areas (especially areas that went with the UDM rather than the NUM in the Strike).

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True. But Dennis Potter used it, and if it's good enough for him...

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Yeh missed 'owt warkin' doown' t'pit an, eatin' nowt but chips.

[afleitch]

As i've said before, not that I condone this, the support for BNP and UKIP is due to the alienation perceived by white voters (and often Hindu and Sikh ones too) that the three major parties seem to be pandering to Muslim sympathies and shortlisting Muslim and Asian candidates especially at a local level (which will perhaps be reviewed after the disgusting events surrounding the local authority elections in Birmingham) and in their opinion feel they are being neglected. In todays culture they will no doubt be ringed as racists or Islamophobic or any other word coined by leftist sociologists somewhere, when they are simply feeling that their fears and anxieties are not being adressed. Expect the BNP to come a distant, but still significant second place in a handful of constituencies. Hell if it was just a choice between them and Respect i'd have to eat my ballot paper!

[Notre Dame rules!]

We Republicans suffer from similar stereotypes, though it doesn't seem to keep us from winning elections.  It doesn't hurt that we are able to dish out the stereotypes pretty viciously ourselves.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A new CR poll done two days after their earlier one:

Lab: 40%
Con: 34%
LD: 16%

Which with the exception of the LD vote looks more in line with other pollsters.

[afleitch]

You Gov Poll as reported in the Sunday Times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1552449,00.html

Also predicts a Labour majority of 70

Labour 36
Conservative 34
Liberal Democrat 22

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You Gov Poll as reported in the Sunday Times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1552449,00.html

Also predicts a Labour majority of 70

Labour 36
Conservative 34
Liberal Democrat 22

Wouldn't be all that far off, but while the headline says it's a poll, the article indicates that it's a prediction. It might be a poll of polls thing or summet.

Either way, there's some fairly good analysis in the article

[Notre Dame rules!]

You Gov Poll as reported in the Sunday Times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1552449,00.html

Also predicts a Labour majority of 70

Labour 36
Conservative 34
Liberal Democrat 22

This election is sounding better all of the time, except of course for the Labour majority of 70.  Perhaps by election day, that may be whittled down even further.

[Jake]

I'll bet on:

Labour     38
Tories      34
LibDems  20

[Democratic Hawk]

In today's Daily Telegraph, an online poll of 22,000 people since January has Labour on 36% (down six on 2001), the Tories on 33% (no change) and the Lib Dems on 22% (up 3)

Regional results:

London: Lab 36, Con 33, LD 21 (7% Lab to Con)

South East: Lab 30, Con 42, LD 21 (1% Lab to Con)

South West: Lab 24, Con 38, LD 28 (1% Lab to Con)

East Anglia: Lab 33, Con 43, LD 19 (2% Lab to Con)

East Midlands: Lab 37, Con 35, LD 21 (3% Lab to Con)

West Midlands: Lab 38, Con 34, LD 20 (3% Lab to Con)

Yorkshire and Humberside: Lab 42, Con 29, LD20 (3% Lab to Con)

North West: Lab 44, Con 28, LD 21 (4% Lab to Con)

Northern: Lab 45, Con 26, LD 21 (6% Lab to Con)

Wales: Lab 41, Con 27, LD 17, PC 10% (7% Lab to Con)

Scotland: Lab 36, Con 18, LD 19, SNP 21 (5% Lab to SNP)

Lab lead Con by 36 to 33 among both men and women

There's also age and social grade demographics. In his commentary, Anthony King (Essex University) says that Blair can no longer rely on class war vote

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That level of uniformity is highly suspect