RFK '68

[Akno21]

1968
Sen. Robert Kennedy (D-NY)/Sen. Eugene McCarthy (D-MN)
Fmr. VP Richard Nixon (R-NY)/Gov. Spiro Agnew (R-MD)
Fmr. Gov. George Wallace (I-AL)/Gen. Curtis LeMay (I-CA)

After impressive primary wins, Kennedy sweeps through the field to take the Democratic nomination. He selects another candidate, Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota. Despite minor setbacks, Kennedy rolls through the campaign season with an eloquence only topped by his brother. Pledging to extend President Johnson’s War on Poverty, and stabilize the situation in Vietnam, he is leading in the polls heading up to election day. Wallace and Kennedy, an ardent civil rights advocate, trade barbs on the campaign trail, and great African-American turnout for Kennedy helps him win swing states such as Illinois.

Kennedy/McCarthy: 45%, 272 electoral votes
Nixon/Agnew: 41%, 221 electoral votes
Wallace/LeMay: 14%, 45 electoral votes

[Akno21]

1972
Gov. Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/Rep. John Ashbrook (R-OH)
Pres. Robert Kennedy (D-NY)/VP Eugene McCarthy (D-MN)

After several years of a Kennedy administration that some compared to FDR’s first term, Republicans were lining up for a chance to defeat Kennedy. Some major contenders were New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller, Maryland Governor Spiro Agnew from the moderate side, and California Governor Ronald Reagan and Ohio Representative John Ashbrook from the conservative side. Tired of defeat, many observers expected the Republicans to select the moderate Governor from New York. It quickly became a race between Rockefeller and Reagan, with Agnew posing a threat in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Regionalism helped Rockefeller in the Northeast, and Agnew won enough in the east to hold off Reagan, delivering the nomination to Rockefeller, who appeased conservatives by picking a far-rightist, Ashbrook, as his Vice-Presidential nominee.

 

Kennedy was unopposed in the Democratic primaries, and was leading in the polls by 5 points throughout the summer. However, after the US pulled out of Vietnam in the beginning of the 70’s, the communist North Vietnamese had taken control of the country very easily by September, and it was charged that Kennedy’s policy of withdrawal gave the communists the country. (By not staying in as long, the anti-war stuff, Kent State etc, wouldn’t have been as much) Rockefeller was unpopular among inner-city impoverished people because of New York’s tough drug laws, but it was in fact his “toughness on hippies” that enabled him to attract Southern Republicans. The economy was not in great shape, and most observers believed that if the Republicans were going to avoid permanent minority status, this would be their best chance. Even with indicators of economics and foreign policy working against him, Kennedy barnstormed the country in a way remiscent of Harry Truman in 1948. Election Day 1972 was very tight as Americans tuned in to see the results.

In the end, Kennedy lost a heartbreaker, with him losing the Presidency on late returns from Missouri, West Virginia, and Washington, despite losing the popular vote by a rather large margin.

Rockefeller/Ashbrook: 51%, 286 electoral votes
Kennedy/McCarthy: 47%, 252 electoral votes

[Akno21]

1976

Fmr. Gov. Ronald Regan (R-CA)/Fmr. Gov. John Connally (R-TX)
Gov. Jerry Brown (D-CA)/Sen. George McGovern (D-SD)

In early 1976, President Rockefeller announces that he will not seek another term. Vice-President Ashbrook jumps into the race, but is quickly overshadowed by the entrance into the race of former California Governor Ronald Reagan. While Reagan is steamrolling toward the Republican nomination, the Democrats were having a bitter primary battle that would decide the future of the party, between California Governor Jerry Brown and Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter. Brown had worked the smoke-filled room perfectly, and had convinced most the of leading liberals to drop out the race except for Mo Udall. In the end, Carter couldn’t get anything going out of the south, and Brown easily got the nomination.

It was a classical liberal vs. conservative battle, a young firebrand versus a battle-tested old man. After the country stabilized under Rockefeller, they simply didn’t want to take a huge risk. They went with Reagan, who communicated the perfect message for the times in the perfect way.

Reagan/Connally: 52%, 337 electoral votes
Brown/McGovern: 46%, 201 electoral votes

[True Democrat]

1968
Sen. Robert Kennedy (D-NY)/Sen. Eugene McCarthy (D-MN)
Fmr. VP Richard Nixon (R-NY)/Gov. Spiro Agnew (R-MD)
Fmr. Gov. George Wallace (I-AL)/Gen. Curtis LeMay (I-CA)

After impressive primary wins, Kennedy sweeps through the field to take the Democratic nomination. He selects another candidate, Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota. Despite minor setbacks, Kennedy rolls through the campaign season with an eloquence only topped by his brother. Pledging to extend President Johnson’s War on Poverty, and stabilize the situation in Vietnam, he is leading in the polls heading up to election day. Wallace and Kennedy, an ardent civil rights advocate, trade barbs on the campaign trail, and great African-American turnout for Kennedy helps him win swing states such as Illinois.

Kennedy/McCarthy: 45%, 272 electoral votes
Nixon/Agnew: 41%, 221 electoral votes
Wallace/LeMay: 14%, 45 electoral votes

Kennedy probably wouldn't have taken Maine without Muskie on the ticket.  Also, he probably would have gotten majorities in New York, Connecticut, and West Virginia.

[True Democrat]

1976

Fmr. Gov. Ronald Regan (R-CA)/Fmr. Gov. John Connally (R-TX)
Gov. Jerry Brown (D-CA)/Sen. George McGovern (D-SD)

In early 1976, President Rockefeller announces that he will not seek another term. Vice-President Ashbrook jumps into the race, but is quickly overshadowed by the entrance into the race of former California Governor Ronald Reagan. While Reagan is steamrolling toward the Republican nomination, the Democrats were having a bitter primary battle that would decide the future of the party, between California Governor Jerry Brown and Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter. Brown had worked the smoke-filled room perfectly, and had convinced most the of leading liberals to drop out the race except for Mo Udall. In the end, Carter couldn’t get anything going out of the south, and Brown easily got the nomination.

It was a classical liberal vs. conservative battle, a young firebrand versus a battle-tested old man. After the country stabilized under Rockefeller, they simply didn’t want to take a huge risk. They went with Reagan, who communicated the perfect message for the times in the perfect way.

Reagan/Connally: 52%, 337 electoral votes
Brown/McGovern: 46%, 201 electoral votes

You should change the percentages when you make new election scenarios.  It makes it look weird that Reagan barely wins Oklahoma, but gets over 60% in Arkansas.

[Akno21]

I think RFK could have carried Maine. Wallace would do well enough in West Virginia to not let the winner get 50%. NY and CT you have valid points about.

I think Reagan would get 60%+ in Arkansas against Brown, I agree it looks bad in comparison to Oklahoma. I'm changing the percentages for the next editions.

[Akno21]

1980
Pres. Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/VP John Connally (R-TX)
Sen. Walter Mondale (D-MN)/Sen. John Glenn (D-OH)

It had been a tough four years for the country; deadlock had been in effect between Reagan and the Democrat controlled congress. Oil prices had gone up, and the economy was in a minor recession. However, Reagan had been pinning the failure of tax cuts to be created on the congress, and the Democrats in congress were on the defensive. The Democratic primary was hotly contested between Indiana Senator Birch Bayh, Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, Minnesota Senator Walter Mondale, South Carolina Senator Fritz Hollings, and former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford. Hollings and Sanford battled for victories in the Southern primaries, but it was Mondale who got victories nationwide. After Bayh and Sanford dropped out, Mondale defeated Kennedy in back to back weeks in New York and Pennsylvania, and with Hollings putting his hope behind a win in Tennessee, Mondale won by 10 points, and secured the nomination.

The Democratic ticket was considered to be too insider, filled with obstructionists. Mondale did in any chance he had of winning the election when he promised to raise taxes. Since he was a leading Democrat in the Senate, Reagan portrayed Mondale as blocking tax cuts, and the election turned out to be a landslide, because, after all, it was tax hikes vs. tax cuts. 

Reagan/Connally: 57%, 440 electoral votes
Mondale/Glenn: 42%, 98 electoral votes

[True Democrat]

1980
Pres. Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/VP John Connally (R-TX)
Sen. Walter Mondale (D-MN)/Sen. John Glenn (D-OH)

It had been a tough four years for the country; deadlock had been in effect between Reagan and the Democrat controlled congress. Oil prices had gone up, and the economy was in a minor recession. However, Reagan had been pinning the failure of tax cuts to be created on the congress, and the Democrats in congress were on the defensive. The Democratic primary was hotly contested between Indiana Senator Birch Bayh, Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, Minnesota Senator Walter Mondale, South Carolina Senator Fritz Hollings, and former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford. Hollings and Sanford battled for victories in the Southern primaries, but it was Mondale who got victories nationwide. After Bayh and Sanford dropped out, Mondale defeated Kennedy in back to back weeks in New York and Pennsylvania, and with Hollings putting his hope behind a win in Tennessee, Mondale won by 10 points, and secured the nomination.

The Democratic ticket was considered to be too insider, filled with obstructionists. Mondale did in any chance he had of winning the election when he promised to raise taxes. Since he was a leading Democrat in the Senate, Reagan portrayed Mondale as blocking tax cuts, and the election turned out to be a landslide, because, after all, it was tax hikes vs. tax cuts. 

Reagan/Connally: 57%, 440 electoral votes
Mondale/Glenn: 42%, 98 electoral votes

I like your timline very much, but there is no way that Mondale would have made the entire South close.

[Akno21]

1984
Gov. Bruce Babbit (D-AZ)/Sen. Gary Hart (D-CO)
Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS)/Gov. Lamar Alexander (R-TN)

Connally was challenged in the Republican Primary by several candidates, including Kansas Senator Bob Dole, Delaware Governor Pete DuPont, Tennessee Senator Howard Baker, and Illinois Representative John Anderson. Dole won in Iowa, but DuPont surprised many with a victory in New Hampshire. Baker had his eyes set upon victories in Alabama and Georgia, but when Dole won those, he dropped out of the race. Connally won out west, and when Anderson lost Illinois to Dole, he dropped out. Offically a three-way race, DuPont lost New York to Dole, and dropped out. Connally rested his hopes on Pennsylvania, but was unable to win. Dole then chose Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander for the Vice-Presidential nominee.

On the Democratic side, the appetite was for moderates and visionaries, and the race included Arizona Governor Bruce Babbit, Colorado Senator Gary Hart, Delaware Senator Joe Biden, Illinois Civil Rights Advocate Jesse Jackson, California Senator Alan Cranston, and former Florida Governor Reubin Askew. Cranston and Biden faded early, while Hart won New Hampshire and Babbit most of the non-southern states early. Askew’s hopes faded when Jackson won several southern primaries, but he was unable to win consistantly enough, and when he lost Georgia he dropped out and endorsed Babbit. With Babbit wins in New York and Pennsylvania, he secured the nomination, and chose Hart as his running-mate.

A Governor who didn’t have the stigma that had doomed congressional Democrats in the past, Babbit was able to open up a considerable lead over Dole. Neither was brimming with charisma, but at least Babbit was moderate, while Dole had the image of a testy, boring conservative, who wouldn’t do anything or live up to the expectations set by Reagan. In the end, Babbit cruised to a relatively easy victory.

Babbit/Hart: 53%, 342 electoral votes
Dole/Alexander: 46%, 196 electoral votes

[Akno21]

1988

Pres. Bruce Babbit (D-AZ)/VP Gary Hart (D-CO)
Fmr. CIA Director George Bush (R-TX)/Sen. Dan Quayle (R-IN)

The Republican primary was crowded, as it was the first GOP primary since 1972 when the party was out of presidential power. Candidates included Former CIA director George Bush of Texas, New York Representitive Jack Kemp, Indiana Senator Richard Lugar, Former Tennessee Governor and Vice Presidential candidate Lamar Alexander, and Conservative Christian commentator Pat Robertson. Lugar won in Iowa, and Bush in New Hampshire. Having once been chairman of the RNC, Bush had many friends in the party establishment, and when he defeated Robertson in South Carolina, he became a virtual lock for the nomination. Lugar lost by large margins in New York and California, and Bush became the Republican nominee. He selected Indiana Senator Dan Quayle as his Vice-Presidential nominee.

In the end, Bush was unable to inspire any sort of energy among both his supporters and swing voters. His pick of Quayle also hurt him, mainly because of his terrible performance in the debates and on the campaign trail. Babbit’s approval ratings never went over 55%, but Bush was not a good alternative. On election day, Babbit won in what was certainly a disappointing election for the Republicans.

Babbit/Hart: 54%, 312 electoral votes
Bush/Quayle: 45%, 226 electoral votes

[Akno21]

1992
VP Gary Hart (D-CO)/Sen. Bob Graham (D-FL)
Gov. John Ashcroft (R-MO)/Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA)

The Republicans were desperate for a winner by this time. The candidates for President were Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter, Texas Senator Phil Gramm, Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, New Jersey businessman Steve Forbes, and Missouri Governor John Ashcroft. Ashcroft won Iowa, and Specter took New Hampshire. Gramm lost Georgia to Ashcroft and dropped out. Forbes never picked up traction, and it soon became Specter versus Ashcroft. Specter’s pro-choice views left him doomed, and Ashcroft picked up the nomination. Ashcroft selected Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley as his running-mate.



On the Democratic side, VP Gary Hart was being challenged only by Pennsylvania Governor Bob Casey. However, when Casey lost Pennsylvania to Hart, it was clear his campaign was doomed. Hart picked Florida Senator and former Governor Bob Graham as his running-mate. While the economy was not extremly strong, Ashcroft over-focused on social issues and was not able to use the economy to his advantage. However, he came very close to victory simply because the public seemed tired of Democratic control (they lost the senate).

Hart/Graham: 51%, 297 electoral votes
Ashcroft/Grassley: 48%, 241 electoral votes

[ilikeverin]

I think you're PBrunsel's hero now

[Akno21]

I think you're PBrunsel's hero now

Grassley lost

[ilikeverin]

I think you're PBrunsel's hero now

Grassley lost

But he still ran

[Akno21]

1996

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)/Rep. John Kasich (R-OH)
Pres. Gary Hart (D-CO)/VP Bob Graham (D-FL)

The Republicans were desperate for a victory, and the 1996 Primary was full of candidates from different parts of the party. Arizona Senator John McCain was the favorite, followed by California Governor Pete Wilson, former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, and Utah Senator Orrin Hatch. McCain cruised to victory over his biggest competitor, Wilson, beating him 57-35 in the California primary on Super Tuesday. McCain then chose Ohio Representative John Kasich as his running-mate.

After twelve years of Democratic rule in the White House, the American people were finally ready for a change, and McCain offered just that. Promising to fight hard for American interests abroad and be fiscally conservative at home, he took a lead in the polls. He was staunchly pro-life, but not a tool of the religious right like Ashcroft in ’92.

McCain/Kasich: 54%, 335 electoral votes
Hart/Graham: 44%, 203 electoral votes



2000

Pres. John McCain (R-AZ)/VP John Kasich (R-OH)
Sen. Al Gore (D-TN)/Sen. John Breaux (D-LA)
Mr. Ralph Nader (G-DC)/Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)

McCain became president at just the right time. The budget finally was balanced, and America was at peace. The Democratic field was crowded. The candidates were South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, Tennessee Senator Al Gore, North Carolina Governor Jim Hunt, and Vermont Governor Howard Dean. Going into Super Tuesday, the race was still competitive, with only Bradley and Hunt failing to get support.

Dean: Dark Blue
Kerry: Light Blue
Gore: Light Red
Daschle: Dark Red



After Super Tuesday, the race was narrowed down to Kerry and Gore. Gore had much support among the African-American community, which gave him victories in places like Maryland.



Kerry rested his hopes on Florida, but Gore handed him a convincing 56-34 defeat, and the nomination was Gore’s.

Gore and Breaux ran a very populist campaign (Gore was the old Gore, not the moveon Gore), and soon the liberal base of the Democratic party was outraged. Many Democrats pledged support to Ralph Nader, and he drafted Ohio Representitive Dennis Kucinich, a Democrat, to be his running mate. With ample money, Nader is running strong at 5-7%, and McCain is hovering around 50%, which gives him a solid lead over Gore.



McCain/Kasich: 52%, 364 electoral votes
Gore/Breaux: 42%, 174 electoral votes
Nader/Kucinich: 7%, 0 electoral votes

2004
Sen. Paul Wellstone (DFL-MN)/Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-MO)
VP John Kasich (R-OH)/Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)

The Republicans were solidly behind Kasich, who received only token opposition, from former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman, who didn’t get more than 2%. There were rumors of a candidacy by former Texas Governor George W. Bush, but the policies of the McCain administration had been very popular, and it didn’t seem that any challenge would succeed. On the Democratic side, the field ecompassed candidates of many different political persuasions. Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, and California Governor Gray Davis. Problems in the golden state forced Davis out, and Bayh’s dullness on the stump relegated him to single-digits. The liberal wing of the party was enamored with Wellstone, while Edwards and Gephardt split the moderate vote. Wellstone however connected with the common farmer, and won Iowa with 43%. He then swept through the field to take the nomination. He selected Gephardt as his running-mate. At the Republican convention, Kasich selected Kansas Senator Sam Brownback.

Wellstone had to cope with the fact that President McCain had a 56% approval rating, but he promised to help those not effected by the economic boom. He did very well among rural voters for a Democrat, but Kasich was still ahead as election day neared, thanks to an effective negative campaign against Wellstone’s liberalism. Fighting strong, Wellstone narrowed the gap by November 2.

Wellstone/Gephardt: 50%, 281 electoral votes
Kasich/Brownback: 49%, 257 electoral votes



THE END

[Bugs]

The end?  What about 2008?