Predict: Which of these states will vote Republican in the next 20 years?

[Mr. Illini]

Well? Explain in the comments.

[Mr. Illini]

In order for "NOTA" to be the answer, Democrats would have to win handily in each of the next 5 elections (7 in a row).  I really, really hope so, but I doubt it.  More likely, the answer is all of them.

In order to vote all of them, the Republicans would need a real landslide sometime in the next 20 years. Minnesota, Michigan, and New Mexico will only go that way if you've locked up every state before them on the list as well, IMO.

[Mr. Illini]

In order for "NOTA" to be the answer, Democrats would have to win handily in each of the next 5 elections (7 in a row).  I really, really hope so, but I doubt it.  More likely, the answer is all of them.

I concur. Some time the Democrats are going to have an incumbent failure who wins only DC, Vermont, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island (which would be how a Reagan win over Carter would look like today) or a challenger who loses 47 to 49 states.  

If the candidate is winning these, they are also winning Washington, California, and probably Illinois. Those states currently vote comparably (all three more D than Maine, I believe) and are more inelastic because of their large cities.

What I would say is DC, Hawai'i, Vermont, Massachusetts, RI, Maryland, California. Swing states Illinois, Washington, and Maine, as if it would matter.

[Mr. Illini]

What many of you are doing is creating firewalls. I'm not asking for worst case Dem scenario, but rather realistically what states you would predict would go Republican. Since I have already predicted that the GOP will not be winning back the WH until 2024, that at least gives the Dems 10 of the 20 years without a landslide.

Realistically, I would predict that these will be the states that vote GOP in the next 20 years.