WI/MI: Which votes GOP next?

[Mr. Illini]

There seems to be a lot of hype on here about a Michigan trend to the R side, or at least a swing state. I personally do not agree, but I figured this would be an interesting poll relating to that.

Discuss.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Wisconsin by far. A better question would probably be Michigan or Nevada.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wisc, should Walker run a winning strategy against anybody but Clinton.

[TDAS04]

Wisconsin.                  

[Mr. Illini]

Wisconsin by far. A better question would probably be Michigan or Nevada.

Considering how hard Nevada is trending D...

[ElectionsGuy]

Wisconsin has more independent/swingy voters and is less D.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Wisconsin by far. A better question would probably be Michigan or Nevada.

Considering how hard Nevada is trending D...

What I mean is that the answer is obviously Wisconsin.

[Goldwater]

Wisconsin.                  

[pbrower2a]

The difference between Michigan and Wisconsin politically is between Greater Detroit and Greater Milwaukee. Detroit is bigger and has more blacks.

[dmmidmi]

Wisconsin
White alone - 88.2%
Black or African American alone, percent definition and source info   Black or African American alone - 6.5%

Michigan
White alone - 80.1%
Black or African American alone, percent definition and source info   Black or African American alone - 14.3%

While the correct answer is "neither," for the purposes of this thread...Wisconsin. Michigan is absolutely not trending to the right at the Presidential level, and there is quite literally zero evidence to support that assertion.

[sg0508]

WI, like PA is fools gold and democrats always close well there, partially due to late registrations.  The democrats' final result is always upwards to 5% of the final poll.  Look at 2010.  Walker's margin of victory was far smaller than predicted and Russ Feingold almost pulled that race out.

In 2004, Bush was up double digits there in September and narrowly at the end and lost it.  Had he lost OH, the "backdoor strategy" was to compensate with wins in either NM or IA (he got back) and WI. 

[Mr. Illini]

The difference between Michigan and Wisconsin politically is between Greater Detroit and Greater Milwaukee. Detroit is bigger and has more blacks.

Milwaukee also has incredibly conservative suburbs, something unseen in the other cities on the Great Lakes.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I could see either one going GOP, but I'd have to say Wisconsin since it was closer in 2000 and 2004.  In fact, I suspect Bush would have carried it in 2000 were it not for the early call of Florida.

That being said, they're both swing states despite consistently voting D because the margins have been close.  Clinton and Obama took them by wider margins because those were strong Dem years nationally.