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Author Topic: OH-Gov, Quinnipiac: Kasich in the lead  (Read 4297 times)
krazen1211
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« on: February 19, 2014, 08:53:02 am »

Link

Kasich 43
Fitzgerald 38


Great news! Kasich's sky high approvals will propel him to victory. He is certainly no Strickland.
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Clinton1996
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« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2014, 09:01:28 am »

This is actually trending towards Fitzgerald as his ID gets higher.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2014, 09:12:49 am »

Only five points?
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« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2014, 09:36:25 am »

The trend though:

June 2013: Kasich+14
November 2013: Kasich+7
Now: Kasich+5

Kasich loses 1% of his lead every month, so we have a tie sometime in the summer ?!

Also: 70% have no idea yet who Fitzgerald is, but among those who do he's rated favorable ...
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King Francis I
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« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2014, 09:38:21 am »

Picking Ohio would be so wonderful, Union busters need to be busted, but it's unlikely...
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« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2014, 10:20:47 am »


Great news! Kasich's sky high approvals will propel him to victory. He is certainly no Strickland.

How come you don't feel the need to say all this crap when this poll was posted at RRH?
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rpryor03
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« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2014, 12:29:59 pm »

Kasich is actually pretty well liked for a GOPer in OH. He will win.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2014, 12:40:00 pm »

I wouldn't count out Fitzzy at this pt. We still got a long way to go and besides Corbett, one other GOP gov can go down in Midwest.
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« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2014, 12:40:30 pm »

New Poll: Ohio Governor by Quinnipiac University on 2014-02-17

Summary: D: 38%, R: 43%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2014, 12:46:37 pm »

I don't get why Kasich's lead would be so slim if his approval rating is so high.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2014, 01:07:48 pm »

The Toledo corridor of the state that decided the election last time is being replaced by the Franklin county area of the state that Kerry and Obama did so well in. And population is growing.
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LeBron FitzGerald
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« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2014, 05:13:33 pm »

If it wasn't already obvious, I'm about to go into an in depth analysis/rant on this. Tongue

Very partisan to start, but about the main asked about issue; the death penalty really points at nothing in this race. Both candidates, Kasich and unfortunately FitzGerald, do support the death penalty and so we won't see that contrast in the campaign or debates. The only route I could see Fitzy going on this is Kasich's lackluster performance in failing to properly test an unknown, lethal drug and injecting it into a convict who suffered in agony for 25 minutes. Fitzy said he is willing to get an investigation on this. One thing to note is that a plurality of Ohioans want Kasich to focus on jobs/unemployment which is now at 7.2% (.6% higher than the national average) and yet 44-40 approve of Kasich's tax plan which is a huge flop. We lost over 31,000 jobs last year from giving out-of-state businesses these massive tax breaks and have failed as expected to live up to their end of the deal, so if Ohio wants something done about jobs, then they better start acting like it especially the Ormet workers in the SW who should return to the favor to FitzGerald with some votes. There's no doubt that former Governor Ted Strickland, who's helping out FitzGerald, will use the economy against Kasich as some sweet payback and deservingly so for a state that jumped all the way to 45th in job creation even after the Ohio bailout. As for healthcare, I'm shocked to say the least. He really pissed off Republicans with expanding Medicaid through the ACA, but seeing Repubs still give him a solid approval on it and fellow Dems and also Indies disapprove of Kasich on it is an odd turn of events. The ACA is helping over 300,000 of Ohio's poorest citizens, and while I support the extension, it just may have been how Kasich got this done in a Schweitzer-like fashion and there being no successful state-run exchange for it. Education is another notable issue and I see why not. While Kasich is clearly anti-union, FitzGerald is going around the state on his Real State of the State tour attacking Kasich for his support for charter schools and his failure to help in raising the wages of teachers. FitzGerald also says on it that every child deserves an adequate, public education where the burden doesn't go to local taxpayers which wins me over big time. In Lakewood, the tax burden from school levies keeps getting put on middle class families and as the for Mayor, it's great to see FitzGerald take action and speak out on that.

If Kasich leads this much with the Indies, this goes well for FitzGerald. Kasich has a lot more money to define FitzGerald and defend his Governorship than FitzGerald has to define himself and attack Kasich, however, Kasich has a lot more baggage on his hands. The angles FitzGerald can attack him from are endless - the economy where he raised taxes on the poor/cut it for the rich, have a higher unemployment than the national average, income growth is non-existent, and 45th in job creation, Kasich's secret attacks on women's reproductive health, voting rights which severely hurt McCrory, the new arising fracking scandal, his association with Christie, Senate Bill 5 and the potential right-to-work bill currently in the legislature, Kasich's 2016 ambitions, the list goes on and on. And this is why I love the strategy FitzGerald is using. By picking Sharen Neuhardt, it shows that abortion rights will be a main issue for Democrats in the campaign, but from all of the Emails I'm getting, the speeches I heard, and his campaign website and FB and Twitter, they're certainly open to experiment with these other possibilities to go off on Kasich on. And this is a 6 point shift to FitzGerald because of this pick. He leads women by 5 now as opposed to the previous poll which had Kasich leading by 1 among women, and even more, with Neuhardt, it will put the media heat more on Kasich than it was on FitzGerald's Lt. Governor pick, Eric Kearney who luckily won't make as much as an impact as was originally thought.

Quinnipiac made a mistake on two encounters though. For one thing, they should have polled Charlie Earl in this race because I do believe he will make a Sarvis-like impact on this race in terms of percentages because he'll rally plenty of conservatives upset with Kasich's decision to expand Medicaid with the support of the Ohio Tea Party behind him. Earl was the Libertarian nominee also in 2010 for the Secretary of State race and he got nearly 5% of the vote in the GOP wave, so who knows how well he'll do at the top of the ticket in a neutral, anti-Kasich year. The other mistake I notice is not revealing the percentage of Dems, Pubbies and Indies polled which I don't see anywhere. I would also have recommended polling this race after the State of Cuyahoga County and State of Ohio speeches by FitzGerald and Kasich on Feb. 19th and Feb. 24th, respectively, because these could boost one or the others numbers. FitzGerald talked about reforming the state government out of the Dimora corruption, the economic development in the county whereby through the Western Reserve plan gave public funds to companies while jabbing JobsOhio for never notifying anyone, emphasizing the fiscal health of the county government, and in a momentous occasion announced the county is taking over the Cleveland and Euclid jails to help with their cities finances. Kasich, meanwhile, is up in Medina today for his address not only because it's a strongly Republican county as opposed to Franklin County where he was supposed to give it, but is there to honor outgoing Republican Speaker William Batchelder who represents Medina and it's the county right below Cuyahoga County, so Kasich will have a jab of his own to tell FitzGerald to pretty much "bring it on." It would have also been nice to see the razor-thin close Secretary of State and Treasurer races polled to which last had Husted up by 1 and Pillich up by about 4, but that's for a later poll at a later time, I guess.

The state legislature, while gerrymandered and not able to be flipped, is worth watching to, at least. Obviously Pubbies love our right-wing cronies, Dems not at all and Indies 50/50, but a 38% approval is in no way a good position to be in with the legislature's approval only bound to get worse. I think this year we do have the potential to flip the GOP Rep. seats of Landis, Dovilla and Kunze, but we would need 11 seats to flip the House which isn't happening even in a good year. In the Senate there's 10 Republicans and 7 Democrats facing re-election, but there's zero chance anything happens in the Ohio Senate until at least 2022 and the balance of power will stay the same 23-10 GOP.

This is also really scary if 24% don't know enough about John Kasich to form an opinion. FitzGerald I can understand, but Kasich? Where have they been the last 4 years?  Either Ohio voters are amazingly uninformed, or the statewide and national media does an awful job at covering Ed FitzGerald and the issues at hand. I'd say both and state Republicans wouldn't be able to pass as many obscenities as they have if it wasn't for these two problems.

This 2 point boost for FitzGerald could also be attributed to the fact that Obama's approval went up to 40% from 34%. Obama has yet to endorse FitzGerald and really should since he represents the President's agenda well and his original pick, Eric Kearney, was good friends with the Obama Family. Not to mention Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson, U.S. Representative Marcia Fudge, House Minority Leader Tracy Maxwell Heard, State Senator Nina Turner and plenty of other prominent African Americans have already endorsed FitzGerald. If nothing comes out of Kasich's arising scandal, then our next best option is to attack relentlessly over the new voting laws. At best, theyre only viewed positive by 1/2 of Ohioans and as Kasich continues to sign more and more of them, he wont only get more public attention, but it will become clear to independents and moderates that Kasich is trying to cheat his way towards re-election. FitzGerald has already promised that Cuyahoga County will sue on the absentee ballot law which will spark a lot of interest after the BS Husted tried with our early voting in 2012. I wouldn't trust him at all to send out any absentee ballots at all to Cuyahoga let alone trust the legislature to give money to Husted to send them up here. I don't blame those 47% in the survey who said Kasich doesn't care about the needs of the people. Personally, I would love to see Kasich use that percentage LePage-Romney style, but if Kasich wants to go back to 2004 and require voters to stand in line for hours on end to vote in the May primaries and general election, then no, he doesn't care. I've said it time and time again. If I were a betting man, Kasich goes down before Snyder and all of this new momentum FitzGerald gained and as he increasingly improves his name recognition numbers, this will shift this race into FitzGerald's hands.
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LeBron FitzGerald
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« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2014, 05:14:57 pm »

Quinnipiac also just released numbers that showed senseless Ohioans favor of medical marijuana use with 87% of Ohioans approving and 11% of FFs disapproving, are in favor of recreational/personal marijuana with 51% of Ohioans approving and 44% of FFs disapproving, and 50% of FFs in support of same-sex marriage in Ohio with 44% opposed. That's still a shame though if more people support drug use, both medical and personal, than they do of two people of the same-sex who love each other to marry. Ohio's on the wrong side of history and if our Republican majority needs to do anything to protect this state, it's preventing marijuana from ever making the ballot in Ohio since the voters can't be trusted. It's no coincidence that voters 18-29 overwhelmingly support it and would just abuse the drug if they ever got the opportunity to use it. I support decriminalization as does John Kasich and likely Ed FitzGerald as well, but they're right as money when they say we have to prevent drug abuse and crime and legalizing marijuana won't do any good for our streets. It's an addiction and if voters agree that what happened in CO and WA is bad for the country, have never before tried the drug, partially agree that it leads to doing other drugs, and overwhelmingly agree that someone on marijuana driving a car is very uncomfortable, then they don't know what they're getting the state into by supporting both types of marijuana. Besides, this amendment has failed before and Attorney General Mike DeWine recently affirmed his position against marijuana who is able to reject the petitions and amendment should he choose. It's clear that the voice of Ohioans is within the grasp of DeWine and I know he'll make the right decision. The amendment would need 385,000 signatures to get an opportunity to be on the ballot, but they're doing much worse than FreedomOhio is with the early petition numbers. They would need the signatures by July 2nd, 2014. If the Ohio Rights Group gets their way, their next target will be recreational marijuana which can't happen. It can't.

As for the polling of abortion, 44-42 support Kasich's synonymous 2013 state budget which attacked women's reproductive health, yet disapprove of what Kasich has done on abortion 26-34. If that doesn't show that we need to get more people (especially that huge gap of men who supported the budget 52-39) to understand what Kasich secretly did in last year's budget, then I don't know. In most cases, Ohioans support abortion 53-41, so it's not that big of a divided issue and FitzGerald-Neuhardt can use it to their advantage.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2014, 07:22:05 pm »

PPP should have another poll coming out. Fitzgerald isn't same kind of like able guy as Strickland is, but that doesn't mean he can't win.
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« Reply #14 on: February 25, 2014, 12:08:13 am »

I wish we were running a real candidate in this race. Kasich is definitely beatable. Sad
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« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2014, 12:46:57 am »

I wish we were running a real candidate in this race. Kasich is definitely beatable. Sad
We are. Ed FitzGerald is a high quality candidate and is campaigning much harder than Schauer or Burke have with more direct, and even personal messages. However, I do agree that this race would be a lot closer and much more favorable to Democrats if someone like Cordray, Coleman or Sutton decided to run, but that wasn't the case and when you compare Ed FitzGerald who has the backing of the Ohio Democrats, several labor unions, women, African Americans and Cuyahoga County behind him, I knew from day one of Todd Portune, the moderate Hamilton County Democrat who had trouble campaigning because of his health issues, hogging the media spotlight that FitzGerald would stand a much, much better chance at beating Kasich than Portune. It's a tossup with Fitzy and would have leaned R with Portune.

As for Kasich's State of the State speech, the overview of it is disturbing and FitzGerald should go right after him on his key points. Kasich wants to cut taxes even more so much as to either get the income tax below 5% or potentially abolish it which the legislature would love to do and while cutting taxes still wants to find ways to increase veterans' benefits when we have more pressing issues to deal with in the state first. As for education, Kasich will also cut state aid to any public colleges/universities which don't meet the state's requirements for graduation rates. Kasich also made a hint at a potential 2016 run if he wins re-election noting how the nation is focusing on Ohio as it's "coming back." He's literally taking a play out of Snyder's playbook and if he signs that right-to-work law, they'll be brothers heading for defeat.
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« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2014, 11:44:29 am »

tl;dr
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« Reply #17 on: March 06, 2014, 06:34:05 pm »

Link

Kasich 43
Fitzgerald 38


Great news! Kasich's sky high approvals will propel him to victory. He is certainly no Strickland.

42-30 = "sky high"?

Oh Krazy... Roll Eyes
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Miles
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« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2014, 03:16:50 pm »

42-30 = "sky high"?

Oh Krazy... Roll Eyes

Actually 51-36 approval; 42-30 are favorables. Still, you'd think his lead would be bigger from that.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #19 on: March 09, 2014, 11:43:05 am »

Nobody expected Josh Mandel to even compete with Brown. OH is a swing state and a 3rd party candidate may be the difference if Kasich will be reelected or not. When PPP comes out with its poll.
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« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2014, 08:06:37 pm »

I wish we were running a real candidate in this race. Kasich is definitely beatable. Sad
We are. Ed FitzGerald is a high quality candidate and is campaigning much harder than Schauer or Burke have with more direct, and even personal messages. However, I do agree that this race would be a lot closer and much more favorable to Democrats if someone like Cordray, Coleman or Sutton decided to run, but that wasn't the case and when you compare Ed FitzGerald who has the backing of the Ohio Democrats, several labor unions, women, African Americans and Cuyahoga County behind him, I knew from day one of Todd Portune, the moderate Hamilton County Democrat who had trouble campaigning because of his health issues, hogging the media spotlight that FitzGerald would stand a much, much better chance at beating Kasich than Portune. It's a tossup with Fitzy and would have leaned R with Portune.

As for Kasich's State of the State speech, the overview of it is disturbing and FitzGerald should go right after him on his key points. Kasich wants to cut taxes even more so much as to either get the income tax below 5% or potentially abolish it which the legislature would love to do and while cutting taxes still wants to find ways to increase veterans' benefits when we have more pressing issues to deal with in the state first. As for education, Kasich will also cut state aid to any public colleges/universities which don't meet the state's requirements for graduation rates. Kasich also made a hint at a potential 2016 run if he wins re-election noting how the nation is focusing on Ohio as it's "coming back." He's literally taking a play out of Snyder's playbook and if he signs that right-to-work law, they'll be brothers heading for defeat.

I'm sorry, but calling Ed FitzGerarld a grade A candidate who has been working harder than Schauer is objectively false.  Also Michael Coleman would be a spectacularly weak candidate (he *still* hasn't endorsed FitzGerald, plus remember how badly he crashed and burned in 2006).  Sutton isn't too good a candidate either for a statewide race.  Cordray, Ryan, or Strickland could definitely have won (Cordray would be the best candidate).
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« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2014, 08:17:28 pm »


Wow, that's extremely lopsided for something that only 20 states have.
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« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2014, 08:35:34 pm »

I wish we were running a real candidate in this race. Kasich is definitely beatable. Sad
We are. Ed FitzGerald is a high quality candidate and is campaigning much harder than Schauer or Burke have with more direct, and even personal messages. However, I do agree that this race would be a lot closer and much more favorable to Democrats if someone like Cordray, Coleman or Sutton decided to run, but that wasn't the case and when you compare Ed FitzGerald who has the backing of the Ohio Democrats, several labor unions, women, African Americans and Cuyahoga County behind him, I knew from day one of Todd Portune, the moderate Hamilton County Democrat who had trouble campaigning because of his health issues, hogging the media spotlight that FitzGerald would stand a much, much better chance at beating Kasich than Portune. It's a tossup with Fitzy and would have leaned R with Portune.

As for Kasich's State of the State speech, the overview of it is disturbing and FitzGerald should go right after him on his key points. Kasich wants to cut taxes even more so much as to either get the income tax below 5% or potentially abolish it which the legislature would love to do and while cutting taxes still wants to find ways to increase veterans' benefits when we have more pressing issues to deal with in the state first. As for education, Kasich will also cut state aid to any public colleges/universities which don't meet the state's requirements for graduation rates. Kasich also made a hint at a potential 2016 run if he wins re-election noting how the nation is focusing on Ohio as it's "coming back." He's literally taking a play out of Snyder's playbook and if he signs that right-to-work law, they'll be brothers heading for defeat.

I'm sorry, but calling Ed FitzGerarld a grade A candidate who has been working harder than Schauer is objectively false.  Also Michael Coleman would be a spectacularly weak candidate (he *still* hasn't endorsed FitzGerald, plus remember how badly he crashed and burned in 2006).  Sutton isn't too good a candidate either for a statewide race.  Cordray, Ryan, or Strickland could definitely have won (Cordray would be the best candidate).
Coleman has proven to be a good fundraiser though and he would undoubtedly increase African American turnout. The main problem I have with him is his utter pessimism in this race towards the Democrats. Cordray also would have been nice, but with his position with the federal govt, it seemed highly unlikely from the start. And Strickland, personally, is too unappealing for me and besides, he has said before he would be interested in other political offices in the future, but not the Governorship. We need fresh, new faces who can make this race competitive and that's FitzGerald. While it's true that Burke is already starting to air ads before FitzGerald, she also flopped in them already as Jedi noted and Schauer is basically being carried by the DGA now in his race. The DGA is failing to come through and actually help FitzGerald, but even so, he's fighting through adversity and making issues his top priority. After awhile, this lawsuit FitzGerald has on Kasich now will only heat up over time and create bad publicity for Kasich.

As for third party candidates, Dennis Spisak, the Green candidate, failed to get enough signatures to make the ballot so he won't be on there which helps pick up that extra 1-2% for Fitzy right there. Charlie Earl, the Libertarian, did get enough signatures to qualify, but Husted is trying to screw him over by saying that all the sigs had to be from Libertarians or Indies, so the Libertarians are appealing that decision. I really hope Earl does manage to get on the ballot because that will heavily hurt Kasich's re-election chances and it will make him regret ever signing that restrictive third party law last year.
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