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  Is Virginia now the Democratic Missouri?
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Author Topic: Is Virginia now the Democratic Missouri?  (Read 5941 times)
WeAreDoomed
outofbox6
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« on: February 22, 2014, 03:24:14 pm »

What I mean by this is Virginia now a lean Democratic state, that is unable to be won by Republicans unless in a blow out? (and maybe not even then?)
I mean, look at both states, they are trending in opposite directions (MO trend R for last five elections, VA trend D for last four elections)
Also, it is possible that Virginia goes to Hillary more than the Democratic average in 2016.
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Flake
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« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2014, 03:28:04 pm »

Virginia is still a swing state, it can be won by Republicans, and it is possible for Hillary to get a higher % in Virginia compared to the whole country.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2014, 04:28:52 pm »

Option 3.
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Vega
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« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2014, 04:49:19 pm »

Hillary Clinton would more than likely find some of her core supporters in Virginia.

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2014, 07:25:09 pm »

I think the better comparison would be that Virginia is now the Democratic Georgia and might eventually be the Democratic Mississippi.  There is basically 45-47% of the population in VA that will vote R every time.  The trouble is getting from 47% to 50% and the fact that Romney basically didn't move the needle an inch in the cities and inner suburbs suggests it could be a big problem.  It was the drastic increase in turnout that flipped the state in 2008- McCain actually got more raw votes than Bush!

Republicans will point to McDonnell in 2009, but the Democratic candidate against him ran such an poor campaign that the race was basically a state level Nixon/McGovern election.  The center-left defected completely to the perceived moderate R, counting on the split legislature to keep anything too weird from happening, but then they regretted it when the GOP took full control.  On a related note, I wouldn't expect any 65% landslides from Warner anymore.  The Republican base has seen that he votes as a normal Dem and that alone should make it a 55/45 race.   
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henster
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« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2014, 07:31:43 pm »

VA is not a lock for Democrats it is still a swing state and both sides will have to fight hard if they want to win it.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2014, 07:51:28 pm »

Not yet. It will happen by 2020/2024.

Of cause by that time, the GOP will be having a North Carolina problem.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2014, 08:05:30 pm »

Probably not.  It all depends on what Republicans do between now and 2016.  Of course, it takes more than one or two elections to cement a state's voting patterns.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #8 on: February 23, 2014, 09:31:48 am »

Not yet.
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Supersonic
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« Reply #9 on: February 23, 2014, 09:39:23 am »

No of course it isn't.
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Cranberry
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« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2014, 09:53:58 am »

If the current trend goes on, it could be by 2016/20/24..
However, if the GOP is actually doing something until then, Virginia can be won by Republicans also in the future.
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Smash255
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« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2014, 12:41:51 pm »

Not yet, but unless the GOP makes major changes it will be.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2014, 04:07:02 pm »

Not yet, but unless the GOP makes major changes it will be.


But are the sorts of things that have made Missouri more Republican the sorts of things that have lead to Virginia becoming more Democratic?  In other words, would the correction in Virginia be detrimental to making Missouri even more red?
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hopper
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« Reply #13 on: February 23, 2014, 04:18:32 pm »

Well no the GOP can win VA in 2016 but not sure past that if they could.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: February 23, 2014, 06:02:35 pm »

Not yet, but unless the GOP makes major changes it will be.


But are the sorts of things that have made Missouri more Republican the sorts of things that have lead to Virginia becoming more Democratic?  In other words, would the correction in Virginia be detrimental to making Missouri even more red?

If the "correction" is based on getting back into the mid 40's in Fairfax and winning Loudoun/Prince William/Henrico, then yes it probably would be detrimental to the Missouri R coalition.  On the other hand, an R resurgence in VA could be based on supercharged rural/Appalachian turnout and getting the rural areas to vote as R as the cities are D, which would also make Missouri even more R.

It's also worth noting that the focus on NOVA obscures just how much the Richmond suburbs have moved left and how much liberal turnout has improved in the Hampton Roads.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #15 on: February 23, 2014, 06:20:21 pm »

Serious Q for all of the people who voted No:

How do Republicans win Virginia over the next few elections?

GOP has already maxed out its vote in the rural parts of the state and that's proven to be not enough.  At the same time southwest Virginia is losing population and NOVA is rapidly gaining population.

The only way I see the GOP being competitive in Virginia is by making some pretty deep cuts into the D's advantage in Fairfax and a few other NOVA counties.  The only way to do this is to make serious platform changes especially on social issues like abortion and gay marriage.  I doubt they will do this.
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Smash255
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« Reply #16 on: February 23, 2014, 07:05:45 pm »

Not yet, but unless the GOP makes major changes it will be.


But are the sorts of things that have made Missouri more Republican the sorts of things that have lead to Virginia becoming more Democratic?  In other words, would the correction in Virginia be detrimental to making Missouri even more red?

That is basically the problem the GOP faces.  They have gone so far right to appease the base, they have turned off a ton of very important areas.  To get these areas back, or at least make them competitive again the GOP needs to turn away from their base.  The base isn't going to start voting Democratic again, but could start supporting hard line conservative third party candidates. 

As an aside, how the hell are you still a Republican?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #17 on: February 23, 2014, 07:46:47 pm »

Va has been voting for the election winner, along with OH/CO. Unless, the GOP makes inroads in either 3 of those states, the election outcome will favor the D's. Hilary has gotten off to a good start by leading Jeb and Walker in Ohio.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: February 23, 2014, 10:29:59 pm »

Serious Q for all of the people who voted No:

How do Republicans win Virginia over the next few elections?

GOP has already maxed out its vote in the rural parts of the state and that's proven to be not enough.  At the same time southwest Virginia is losing population and NOVA is rapidly gaining population.

The only way I see the GOP being competitive in Virginia is by making some pretty deep cuts into the D's advantage in Fairfax and a few other NOVA counties.  The only way to do this is to make serious platform changes especially on social issues like abortion and gay marriage.  I doubt they will do this.

Look at rural GA and TN.  Why do you think that isn't the end state for VA-09/07 and the most rural eastern areas? 
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #19 on: February 23, 2014, 10:37:55 pm »

Serious Q for all of the people who voted No:

How do Republicans win Virginia over the next few elections?

GOP has already maxed out its vote in the rural parts of the state and that's proven to be not enough.  At the same time southwest Virginia is losing population and NOVA is rapidly gaining population.

I voted "Let's See 2016," but if Republicans are going to win Virginia, then they need to stop nominating guys like Ken Cuccinelli and the completely insane E.W. Jackson. That means getting rid of the convention nomination system and letting all the state's Republicans vote.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #20 on: February 23, 2014, 10:46:34 pm »

Serious Q for all of the people who voted No:

How do Republicans win Virginia over the next few elections?

GOP has already maxed out its vote in the rural parts of the state and that's proven to be not enough.  At the same time southwest Virginia is losing population and NOVA is rapidly gaining population.

I voted "Let's See 2016," but if Republicans are going to win Virginia, then they need to stop nominating guys like Ken Cuccinelli and the completely insane E.W. Jackson. That means getting rid of the convention nomination system and letting all the state's Republicans vote.

They were trying the rural turnout strategy.  It scared the party elite half to death, but you have to admit it worked better than expected.  Cuccinelli came closer than Romney after all.
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #21 on: February 24, 2014, 01:08:30 am »

Serious Q for all of the people who voted No:

How do Republicans win Virginia over the next few elections?

GOP has already maxed out its vote in the rural parts of the state and that's proven to be not enough.  At the same time southwest Virginia is losing population and NOVA is rapidly gaining population.

I voted "Let's See 2016," but if Republicans are going to win Virginia, then they need to stop nominating guys like Ken Cuccinelli and the completely insane E.W. Jackson. That means getting rid of the convention nomination system and letting all the state's Republicans vote.

They were trying the rural turnout strategy.  It scared the party elite half to death, but you have to admit it worked better than expected.  Cuccinelli came closer than Romney after all.

I don't know if anybody else noticed this, but when Ken Cuccinelli gave his concession speech, he just read his victory speech in a sad tone of voice. "I'm going to fight to create jobs" and "You sent this President a clear message about Obamacare!" Well, he tried to turn it into a "referendum" on the Affordable Care Act, and while it won him some votes in the end, the voters, by his logic, supported it. And, not to mention, he never called Terry McAuliffe to concede like any sensible candidate would have.
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sdu754
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« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2014, 02:06:36 am »

Serious Q for all of the people who voted No:

How do Republicans win Virginia over the next few elections?

GOP has already maxed out its vote in the rural parts of the state and that's proven to be not enough.  At the same time southwest Virginia is losing population and NOVA is rapidly gaining population.

The only way I see the GOP being competitive in Virginia is by making some pretty deep cuts into the D's advantage in Fairfax and a few other NOVA counties.  The only way to do this is to make serious platform changes especially on social issues like abortion and gay marriage.  I doubt they will do this.

I think you're making the mistake of believing that any Democrat will do as well as Obama, and any Republican will be as bad as McCain or Romney. Obama is a charismatic, likeable candidate. McCain & Romney have no charisma what so ever. If looking at two elections by a single candidate were actually an indicator, then the Eisenhower & Reagan elections should have issued in unbeatable Republican electoral majorities.

As far as your "social issues" argument goes, more and more people are actually becoming pro-life.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2014, 09:53:24 am »

Virginia matched the popular vote more closely than any other state in 2008 and 2012.

So it's unlikely that it'll suddenly become 5-6 points more Democratic-leaning than the rest of the nation in 2016, especially with a likely reduction in African-American turnout.

Republicans won Missouri by 3.34 points in 2000 (3.84 points more than the popular vote), 7.2 points in 2004 (4.8 points more than the popular vote), 0.13 points in 2008 (7.07 higher than the popular vote) and 9.38 points (13.28 points higher than the popular vote.)

It took a while for the state to shift so significantly.

In 2028, Virginia might be a reliably left-leaning state. But we're not quite there yet.
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sdu754
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« Reply #24 on: February 28, 2014, 12:06:54 am »

When you consider that 8 out of 11 Us Congressmen from Virginia are republicans, and in there state house the numbers are 67 Republicans versus 32 Democrats, it really doesn't make sense for people to believe that a Republican can't win there.
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