Is Virginia now the Democratic Missouri?

[Skill and Chance]

I think the better comparison would be that Virginia is now the Democratic Georgia and might eventually be the Democratic Mississippi.  There is basically 45-47% of the population in VA that will vote R every time.  The trouble is getting from 47% to 50% and the fact that Romney basically didn't move the needle an inch in the cities and inner suburbs suggests it could be a big problem.  It was the drastic increase in turnout that flipped the state in 2008- McCain actually got more raw votes than Bush!

Republicans will point to McDonnell in 2009, but the Democratic candidate against him ran such an poor campaign that the race was basically a state level Nixon/McGovern election.  The center-left defected completely to the perceived moderate R, counting on the split legislature to keep anything too weird from happening, but then they regretted it when the GOP took full control.  On a related note, I wouldn't expect any 65% landslides from Warner anymore.  The Republican base has seen that he votes as a normal Dem and that alone should make it a 55/45 race.   

[Skill and Chance]

Not yet, but unless the GOP makes major changes it will be.

But are the sorts of things that have made Missouri more Republican the sorts of things that have lead to Virginia becoming more Democratic?  In other words, would the correction in Virginia be detrimental to making Missouri even more red?

If the "correction" is based on getting back into the mid 40's in Fairfax and winning Loudoun/Prince William/Henrico, then yes it probably would be detrimental to the Missouri R coalition.  On the other hand, an R resurgence in VA could be based on supercharged rural/Appalachian turnout and getting the rural areas to vote as R as the cities are D, which would also make Missouri even more R.

It's also worth noting that the focus on NOVA obscures just how much the Richmond suburbs have moved left and how much liberal turnout has improved in the Hampton Roads.

[Skill and Chance]

Serious Q for all of the people who voted No:

How do Republicans win Virginia over the next few elections?

GOP has already maxed out its vote in the rural parts of the state and that's proven to be not enough.  At the same time southwest Virginia is losing population and NOVA is rapidly gaining population.

The only way I see the GOP being competitive in Virginia is by making some pretty deep cuts into the D's advantage in Fairfax and a few other NOVA counties.  The only way to do this is to make serious platform changes especially on social issues like abortion and gay marriage.  I doubt they will do this.

Look at rural GA and TN.  Why do you think that isn't the end state for VA-09/07 and the most rural eastern areas? 

[Skill and Chance]

Serious Q for all of the people who voted No:

How do Republicans win Virginia over the next few elections?

GOP has already maxed out its vote in the rural parts of the state and that's proven to be not enough.  At the same time southwest Virginia is losing population and NOVA is rapidly gaining population.

I voted "Let's See 2016," but if Republicans are going to win Virginia, then they need to stop nominating guys like Ken Cuccinelli and the completely insane E.W. Jackson. That means getting rid of the convention nomination system and letting all the state's Republicans vote.

They were trying the rural turnout strategy.  It scared the party elite half to death, but you have to admit it worked better than expected.  Cuccinelli came closer than Romney after all.