Mister Mets
YaBB God
Posts: 4,440
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« on: February 26, 2014, 09:53:24 AM » |
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Virginia matched the popular vote more closely than any other state in 2008 and 2012.
So it's unlikely that it'll suddenly become 5-6 points more Democratic-leaning than the rest of the nation in 2016, especially with a likely reduction in African-American turnout.
Republicans won Missouri by 3.34 points in 2000 (3.84 points more than the popular vote), 7.2 points in 2004 (4.8 points more than the popular vote), 0.13 points in 2008 (7.07 higher than the popular vote) and 9.38 points (13.28 points higher than the popular vote.)
It took a while for the state to shift so significantly.
In 2028, Virginia might be a reliably left-leaning state. But we're not quite there yet.
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