As one of the most important swing states in the nation, I thought it would be interesting to look at the trends in some key Florida counties, and the reason for their trends. Any Florida peeps are welcome to jump in.
Miami-Dade: The largest county in the state. Historically lean D over the past 20 years. Shifted hard D in 2012. Are younger Cubans in the county moving away from the Republicans?
Palm Beach County: Has been a strong D county for decades but is quickly trending R. Romney was the first R candidate to get over 40% since 1988. Could be a sign of the older voters becoming more R.
Sumter County: An old person Oasis, thanks to The Villages. It has become extremely Republican through the years. A good microcosm of the white senior citizen vote.
Orange/Osceola County: These two counties in the greater Orlando area often shift together in elections. In the 80s and 90s they were strong R, in the Bush era they were swing counties and in the Obama era they are very strong D. Good for Dems as well because they are two of the fastest growing counties in Florida. Growing diversity is probably the main reason for the shift.
Volusia County: This county always fascinated me as it is a coastal county in Northern Florida with some southern influences (Daytona) that still voted D from 1992 to 2008. However, Romney won the county in 2012. Does anybody know the reason behind the R swing?
Duval County: Home of Jacksonville, probably the most culturally southern major city in Florida. For years the county was pretty safe R but has been trending D since around 2000. Obama came within two points of winning there in 2008. Possibly the black population is increasing?
Broward County: Surprisingly stable, considering its size and demographic transformation. Since the 90s it has been very reliably D and remains so today. My guess is that the olds who are becoming more R are being counterbalanced by minorities and immigrants becoming more D.
This analysis seems spot on.
What about Tampa though, I think the counties in and around Tampa are the most critical going forward, if they start voting like the Orlando counties the GOP is going to have serious problems.
Yes, I should have added Pinellas and Hillsborough. It was just hard for me to comment on them because the Tampa Bay area is the only major region in Florida I haven't visited. What I can see is that the two counties aren't trending as hard to the left as Orange/Osceola. Somebody from Florida is welcome to add their input.
What I do know is that Tampa is sort of the gateway to SW Florida, which is very Republican, while Orlando is more of a gateway to dark blue SE Florida. Tampa is whiter than Orlando too, so I think for that reason the region will stay swingy for a while.
I've been living in Orlando since 2010. It seems to me that the 44-45% threshold for the GOP would serve as the tipping point statewide. I say that bc that's what Rick Scott got here in 2010...my prediction is 38% in the county.
Not sure how much truth there is to Orange/Osceola counties moving together going forward. There was virtually no change in Obama's numbers from 2008-12 whereas he broke 60% in Osceola county. I would expect that the GOP's floor on the presidential level is 40% in Orange County.
