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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Urban core counties that swung and trended to Romney
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Author Topic: Urban core counties that swung and trended to Romney  (Read 1866 times)
old timey villain
cope1989
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« on: February 23, 2014, 06:54:53 pm »

Even though Romney cut into Obama's 2008 margins in most areas of the country, Obama seemed to improve in most urban counties. But there were some where Romney made significant gains. Here are a few that I found and possible explanations for the swing.

Cook County, IL (Chicago): Statewide evaporation of favorite son effect, even in Chicago

Travis County, TX (Austin): This one was surprising. I thought Austin was going to continue to trend D

Jackson County, MO (Kansas City): Probably because Obama didn't bother to contest Missouri this time around.

Marion County, IN (Indianpolis): Similar to Missouri. Obama gave up in IN this time around and a drop off was inevitable, even in the cities.

Clark County, NV (Las Vegas): Last time I checked the housing market was still sh**ty in Nevada. Obama's '08 promises probably resonated the most in Las Vegas and more people were underwhelmed four years later.

Salt Lake County, UT (SLC): Mormon on the ticket

Fulton County, GA (Atlanta): I'm from Georgia and this kind of baffles me. My only guess is that the northern suburbs (which constitute the upper third of Fulton County) swung hard to Romney.



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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2014, 06:58:38 pm »

Jackson County MO has trended R for the past three elections, not really surprising.
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Sol
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« Reply #2 on: February 23, 2014, 10:24:47 pm »

Atlanta is gentrifying a good bit, IIRC- the white population % in the city itself is rising. Of course, that means replacing 95% Obama, predominantly black voters with more like 75% Obama, predominantly white voters, so probably not going to turn Fulton pubbie.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2014, 12:21:39 am »

Not the whole county but Hoboken, NJ prob fits this too.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2014, 09:31:05 pm »

Not the whole county but Hoboken, NJ prob fits this too.

Yeah, Hudson county actually trended and swung to Obama. Is Hoboken gentrifying?
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Sol
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« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2014, 09:15:27 pm »

Not the whole county but Hoboken, NJ prob fits this too.

Yeah, Hudson county actually trended and swung to Obama. Is Hoboken gentrifying?

From what I understand, Hoboken is already fully gentrified- it's quite wealthy.
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Smash255
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« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2014, 11:05:12 pm »

In Travis turnout might partially explain it.  The raw vote total in Travis was about 3.2% lower in 2012 than it was in 2008, meanwhile it was down 1.1% statewide.  During the same time period the population growth was more than double in Travis 11.7% compared to the state as a whole 5.4%.

The 3.4% raw vote drop off was larger than the country as a whole 1.7%, so Travis had a larger drop off than both the nation as a whole and Texas as a whole, despite the fact the county grew at a much larger clip than both.  Chances are the bulk of that dropoff was younger voters.

The same is true in Fulton, the drop off was close in line to the national drop off, 1.8%, but higher than the state drop off .6%.  This is despite the fact that Fulton grew by 10% in population between 2008 and 2012 far outpacing the nation as a whole or the state 3.6%
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2014, 03:32:04 pm »

In Travis turnout might partially explain it.  The raw vote total in Travis was about 3.2% lower in 2012 than it was in 2008, meanwhile it was down 1.1% statewide.  During the same time period the population growth was more than double in Travis 11.7% compared to the state as a whole 5.4%.

The 3.4% raw vote drop off was larger than the country as a whole 1.7%, so Travis had a larger drop off than both the nation as a whole and Texas as a whole, despite the fact the county grew at a much larger clip than both.  Chances are the bulk of that dropoff was younger voters.

The same is true in Fulton, the drop off was close in line to the national drop off, 1.8%, but higher than the state drop off .6%.  This is despite the fact that Fulton grew by 10% in population between 2008 and 2012 far outpacing the nation as a whole or the state 3.6%

This further backs up my theory that Georgia has a treasure trove of untapped Democratic voters that could turn us blue one day
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