PA-Quinnipiac: Clinton up 5 against Christie, beats all others by double-digits

[Tender Branson]

Secretary Clinton tops Gov. Christie 46 - 41 percent, compared to the results of a December 19 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing Clinton at 44 percent, with 43 percent for Christie.

The Democrat beats Native Son Santorum 53 - 37 percent, compared to 51 - 38 percent in December.

Clinton tops other possible Republican candidates:

    53 - 38 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    54 - 34 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas;
    53 - 36 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

...

Pennsylvania voters give President Barack Obama a negative 42 - 54 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 39 - 57 percent approval rating December 19.

The president's negative ratings are 10 - 89 percent among Republicans and 35 - 60 percent among independent voters, while Democrats approve 80 - 16 percent.

...

Voters approve 47 - 33 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Robert Casey Jr. is doing and give U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey a 43 - 33 percent approval rating.

...

From February 19 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,405 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2013

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton 46%
Christie 41%

Clinton 53%
Paul 38%

Clinton 54%
Cruz 34%

Clinton 53%
Bush 36%

Clinton 53%
Santorum 37%

[Tender Branson]

PA Indies are still sticking with Christie over Clinton.

That's odd ...

[Mr. Morden]

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +22
30-49: Christie +4
50-64: Clinton +13
65+: Clinton +3

[eric82oslo]

Something is seriously wrong with the 30-49s and independents in Pennsylvania. I don't believe these numbers at all. They're way too rosey for Christie when all other Republican opponents are Down With 15-20%. Either that or Pennsylvania voters in general and Pennsylvania independents specifically are extremely uninformed when it comes to politics and aren't even aware of the whole George Washington Bridge over Troubled Water scandal yet. Maybe they're just immensely naive and are all for a little corruption?

[eric82oslo]

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +12
30-49: Christie +4
50-64: Clinton +13
65+: Clinton +3

Actually the youngest voters go +22% for Hillary. Which makes it even less understandable why the voters in their 30s and 40s should back Christie still.

[Mr. Morden]

Either that or Pennsylvania voters in general and Pennsylvania independents specifically are extremely uninformed when it comes to politics and aren't even aware of the whole George Washington Bridge over Troubled Water scandal yet.

I'd think it would be more likely to be the reverse effect.  Christie's name recognition is still only, what?  65-70% in the country as a whole?  A candidate is inevitably going to poll better where their name recognition is higher, and it'll be higher in PA than the country as a whole, because of the Philly media market.

And for those people in media markets where Christie gets covered, the bridge scandal doesn't completely define him, the way it might in other parts of the country.  Look at New Jersey itself, where Christie's name recognition is nearly 100%.  His job approval ratings have taken a big hit, but they're still (slightly) net positive, even though it's a Democratic state.  Why?  Because they don't rate Christie on Bridgeghazi alone.

[Mr. Morden]

Would the following make a good president or not? (yes/no %)

Clinton 59/37% for +22%
Christie 43/42% for +1%
Bush 35/45% for -10%
Paul 34/46% for -12%
Santorum 35/52% for -17%
Cruz 23/45% for -22%
Biden 32/59% for -27%

[pbrower2a]

PA Indies are still sticking with Christie over Clinton.

That's odd ...

Christie is a very good cultural match for Pennsylvania. The others are severe non-matches. Santorum may have been one of the rising stars in the GOP -- until he abused power in the Senate.

It could be that the 'bridge scandal' in New Jersey isn't as troublesome in Pennsylvania as in New Jersey. New Jersey and Pennsylvania have many toll bridges between them, but those bridges heavily traveled couldn't be manipulated as blatantly on the Pennsylvania side. The heavily-traveled ones are in greater Philly; the others have nowhere the traffic of the great bridges connecting New Jersey to Philadelphia or New York City.