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  AZ-PPP: Hillary Clinton leads all, except Jeb Bush
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Author Topic: AZ-PPP: Hillary Clinton leads all, except Jeb Bush  (Read 2067 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: March 06, 2014, 12:27:17 pm »

The Presidential race in Arizona in 2016 could be interesting as well. Hillary Clinton narrowly trails Jeb Bush (45/44), but leads Chris Christie (44/41), Rand Paul (46/43), and Mike Huckabee (47/41). Arizona could finally reach its long anticipated battleground status this cycle.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/mccain-least-popular-senator-in-country.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2014, 12:36:30 pm »

2 national polls just showed Clinton beating Bush by about 13-14 points.

AZ as a tossup makes sense with these national numbers.

(2012: Obama+4 nationally, but -9 in AZ)
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2014, 12:55:19 pm »

Cheesy

And finally it's happening. We have almost 3 years to go until election day, so the electoral demographics will still change A LOT in Arizona in the time remaining. Tons of Arizonians 15, 16 and 17 years old will be able to vote in 2016 who are not included in this poll. I'm getting excited already. Smiley
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2014, 12:58:17 pm »

Cheesy

And finally it's happening. We have almost 3 years to go until election day, so the electoral demographics will still change A LOT in Arizona in the time remaining. Tons of Arizonians 15, 16 and 17 years old will be able to vote in 2016 who are not included in this poll. I'm getting excited already. Smiley

The poll actually shows no trend towards the Democrats ...
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2014, 01:13:02 pm »

Cheesy

And finally it's happening. We have almost 3 years to go until election day, so the electoral demographics will still change A LOT in Arizona in the time remaining. Tons of Arizonians 15, 16 and 17 years old will be able to vote in 2016 who are not included in this poll. I'm getting excited already. Smiley

The poll actually shows no trend towards the Democrats ...

Actually it does. Clinton would beat Bush by 21 points among the youngest voters, but Bush would win by 11 among the oldest.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2014, 01:22:51 pm »

Cheesy

And finally it's happening. We have almost 3 years to go until election day, so the electoral demographics will still change A LOT in Arizona in the time remaining. Tons of Arizonians 15, 16 and 17 years old will be able to vote in 2016 who are not included in this poll. I'm getting excited already. Smiley

The poll actually shows no trend towards the Democrats ...

Actually it does. Clinton would beat Bush by 21 points among the youngest voters, but Bush would win by 11 among the oldest.

But I'm talking about a statewide trend, read my 2nd post ...
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2014, 01:27:16 pm »

Cheesy

And finally it's happening. We have almost 3 years to go until election day, so the electoral demographics will still change A LOT in Arizona in the time remaining. Tons of Arizonians 15, 16 and 17 years old will be able to vote in 2016 who are not included in this poll. I'm getting excited already. Smiley

The poll actually shows no trend towards the Democrats ...

Actually it does. Clinton would beat Bush by 21 points among the youngest voters, but Bush would win by 11 among the oldest.

But I'm talking about a statewide trend, read my 2nd post ...

Disagree, as my poll of polls has Hillary "only" beating the generic Republican by 7.4%. Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2014, 01:40:21 pm »

Cheesy

And finally it's happening. We have almost 3 years to go until election day, so the electoral demographics will still change A LOT in Arizona in the time remaining. Tons of Arizonians 15, 16 and 17 years old will be able to vote in 2016 who are not included in this poll. I'm getting excited already. Smiley

The poll actually shows no trend towards the Democrats ...

Actually it does. Clinton would beat Bush by 21 points among the youngest voters, but Bush would win by 11 among the oldest.

But I'm talking about a statewide trend, read my 2nd post ...

Disagree, as my poll of polls has Hillary "only" beating the generic Republican by 7.4%. Wink

The problem with measuring the trend right now is that the national polls are all over the place: From Clinton+2 (PPP) to Clinton+30 (Marist).

Using the last national PPP poll, there would be a strong DEM trend in AZ, but using the latest FOX poll from yesterday, there would be no change relative to 2012 ...
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2014, 01:49:00 pm »
« Edited: March 06, 2014, 02:23:19 pm by eric82oslo »

Cheesy

And finally it's happening. We have almost 3 years to go until election day, so the electoral demographics will still change A LOT in Arizona in the time remaining. Tons of Arizonians 15, 16 and 17 years old will be able to vote in 2016 who are not included in this poll. I'm getting excited already. Smiley

The poll actually shows no trend towards the Democrats ...

Actually it does. Clinton would beat Bush by 21 points among the youngest voters, but Bush would win by 11 among the oldest.

But I'm talking about a statewide trend, read my 2nd post ...

Disagree, as my poll of polls has Hillary "only" beating the generic Republican by 7.4%. Wink

The problem with measuring the trend right now is that the national polls are all over the place: From Clinton+2 (PPP) to Clinton+30 (Marist).

Using the last national PPP poll, there would be a strong DEM trend in AZ, but using the latest FOX poll from yesterday, there would be no change relative to 2012 ...

Agree with that. Tongue My poll of polls show that Arizona has the 8th strongest swing (of 27 states measured) right now and 7th if we count only the Democratic tilt. Smiley

Now I wonder how the difference between Colorado and its neighbour Arizona can be so enormous? Colorado is swinging 9% towards generic GOP, while Arizona is swinging 8% towards Hillary. Lol. It's almost surreal. Smiley
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« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2014, 03:17:02 pm »
« Edited: March 06, 2014, 06:00:25 pm by pbrower2a »

Arizona would probably be about the 35th-best state for Hillary Clinton. It's impossible to lose a Presidential election while winning 35 states or even 30.

Arizona has gone for the Democratic nominee for President only twice since WWII: 1948 (ancient history) and 1996. The Democrat won both elections. It was close in 1964 -- with a Favorite Son as the Republican nominee.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2014, 03:45:19 pm »

Arizona would probably be about the 35th-best state for Hillary Clinton. It's impossible to lose a Presidential election while winning 35 states (Obama got 34 in 2008) or even 30.

Obama got 30 in 2008 - 28 in 2012.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2014, 04:18:47 pm »

Question:

Why is Hillary under-performing in Colorado and over-performing in Arizona?
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2014, 04:27:28 pm »

Question:

Why is Hillary under-performing in Colorado and over-performing in Arizona?

The only explanation I have is that Coloradans is by far the most highly educated of the US states - and the US has never had a smarter, or at least more highly educated president, than Obama before. I'm pretty sure he's the first president ever to be a practically teaching professor in constitutional law. I mean, professionally you can't get any smarter than that - at least not within the US.

When it comes to Arizona, I guess it's a mixture of changing demographics and a very, very strong anti GOP backlash which they did not feel at all in 2008 and 2012 due to McCain being the aliviator in that one state but in none of the remaining 49.
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« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2014, 06:16:05 pm »

Question:

Why is Hillary under-performing in Colorado and over-performing in Arizona?

The only explanation I have is that Coloradans is by far the most highly educated of the US states - and the US has never had a smarter, or at least more highly educated president, than Obama before. I'm pretty sure he's the first president ever to be a practically teaching professor in constitutional law. I mean, professionally you can't get any smarter than that - at least not within the US.

When it comes to Arizona, I guess it's a mixture of changing demographics and a very, very strong anti GOP backlash which they did not feel at all in 2008 and 2012 due to McCain being the aliviator in that one state but in none of the remaining 49.

Colorado breaks late for Democrats, at least since 2006. Colorado doesn't look so great for Democrats early. The state has a loud Right that has a high floor but a low ceiling. Arizona demographics are going increasingly favorably toward Democrats due to the quickly-expanding Hispanic (largely Mexican-American) electorate.   Arizona may be becoming more like Colorado and Nevada in its voting.

 
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2014, 06:48:24 pm »

The interesting thing about AZ vs CO/NV/NM is that while NM has the highest latino/hispanic population, almost 50%... AZ is the second highest out of them with around 30% (give or take).

What dictates the final result in these states tends to be more about the mix of the non-latino voters, which is why AZ has remained consistently Republican, if you look at the results since 2000, the Democratic vote has barely shifted, while the state's latino population grows, why? Because it's white voters are older and more Republican.

Exit poll data from 2012
Colorado - Obama: White vote 44% (+5 on nation) - Latino vote 75% (+4 on nation)
Nevada - Obama: White vote 43% (+4 on nation) - Latino vote 71% ( -)
New Mexico - Obama: White vote: 41% (+2 on nation) - Latino vote 65% (-6 on nation)... but the Latino vote in NM is 37% of the electorate versus 14-17% in the other states

But Arizona?
Arizona - Obama: White vote 32% (-7 on nation) - Latino vote: 74% (+3 on nation)...

Arizona will be a very tough ask for the Democrats, simply because while their Latino vote is stronger and larger than the nation as a whole... its white vote is REALLY Republican.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2014, 07:51:48 pm »

Arizona has a lot more seniors than Colorado. Hillary appears to overperform among old whites relative to other Democrats. (None of this is to deny that state polls are pretty hazy at this point).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2014, 08:06:27 pm »

The interesting thing about AZ vs CO/NV/NM is that while NM has the highest latino/hispanic population, almost 50%... AZ is the second highest out of them with around 30% (give or take).

What dictates the final result in these states tends to be more about the mix of the non-latino voters, which is why AZ has remained consistently Republican, if you look at the results since 2000, the Democratic vote has barely shifted, while the state's latino population grows, why? Because it's white voters are older and more Republican.

Exit poll data from 2012
Colorado - Obama: White vote 44% (+5 on nation) - Latino vote 75% (+4 on nation)
Nevada - Obama: White vote 43% (+4 on nation) - Latino vote 71% ( -)
New Mexico - Obama: White vote: 41% (+2 on nation) - Latino vote 65% (-6 on nation)... but the Latino vote in NM is 37% of the electorate versus 14-17% in the other states

But Arizona?
Arizona - Obama: White vote 32% (-7 on nation) - Latino vote: 74% (+3 on nation)...

The Arizona GOP has on the whole gone far to the right. That's how the GOP went in California toward the end of its domination of California politics. The GOP has pushed some extreme politics, as if in the knowledge that enacting them is a now-or-never proposition.

Democrats can obviously win the Presidential election without Arizona. The state is frosting on the cake. With such a state as Pennsylvania or Virginia as the tipping-point state in 2016 I see this order of winning the states through Arizona:

New Hampshire
Iowa
Pennsylvania/Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Missouri
Indiana
  
Quote
Arizona will be a very tough ask for the Democrats, simply because while their Latino vote is stronger and larger than the nation as a whole... its white vote is REALLY Republican.

But know well: the enmity that whites have had toward Latinos has never been as severe as that against blacks.  White people in Arizona are more likely to have a Hispanic in-law.  
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« Reply #17 on: March 06, 2014, 08:48:48 pm »

Bush 45%
Clinton 44%

Clinton 44%
Christie 41%

Clinton 47%
Huckabee 41%

Clinton 46%
Paul 43%

Clinton 46%
Brewer 39%

Bush vs. Clinton by race:
Hispanics: Clinton +29
whites: Bush +9

Christie vs. Clinton by race:
Hispanics: Clinton +35
whites: Christie +6
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« Reply #18 on: March 06, 2014, 09:11:05 pm »

The interesting thing about AZ vs CO/NV/NM is that while NM has the highest latino/hispanic population, almost 50%... AZ is the second highest out of them with around 30% (give or take).

What dictates the final result in these states tends to be more about the mix of the non-latino voters, which is why AZ has remained consistently Republican, if you look at the results since 2000, the Democratic vote has barely shifted, while the state's latino population grows, why? Because it's white voters are older and more Republican.

Exit poll data from 2012
Colorado - Obama: White vote 44% (+5 on nation) - Latino vote 75% (+4 on nation)
Nevada - Obama: White vote 43% (+4 on nation) - Latino vote 71% ( -)
New Mexico - Obama: White vote: 41% (+2 on nation) - Latino vote 65% (-6 on nation)... but the Latino vote in NM is 37% of the electorate versus 14-17% in the other states

But Arizona?
Arizona - Obama: White vote 32% (-7 on nation) - Latino vote: 74% (+3 on nation)...

The Arizona GOP has on the whole gone far to the right. That's how the GOP went in California toward the end of its domination of California politics. The GOP has pushed some extreme politics, as if in the knowledge that enacting them is a now-or-never proposition.

Democrats can obviously win the Presidential election without Arizona. The state is frosting on the cake. With such a state as Pennsylvania or Virginia as the tipping-point state in 2016 I see this order of winning the states through Arizona:

New Hampshire
Iowa
Pennsylvania/Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Missouri
Indiana
  
Quote
Arizona will be a very tough ask for the Democrats, simply because while their Latino vote is stronger and larger than the nation as a whole... its white vote is REALLY Republican.

But know well: the enmity that whites have had toward Latinos has never been as severe as that against blacks.  White people in Arizona are more likely to have a Hispanic in-law.  

I'm not sure what your point is here? Knowing someone of a different race is not going to make them vote the same way as them.
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Flake
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« Reply #19 on: March 07, 2014, 03:13:28 am »

It's impossible to lose a Presidential election while winning 35 states



317 GOP
221 Dem
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« Reply #20 on: March 07, 2014, 05:22:56 am »

Question:

Why is Hillary under-performing in Colorado and over-performing in Arizona?

My only guess would be due to the higher number of Latinos in Arizona than Colorado. She carried Arizona in the primaries but lost Colorado (granted CO was a caucus state and AZ was a primary, but that's another issue). Also, I think Colorado has more of the latte white elitist liberals in the Denver suburbs and Boulder. I reckon Arizona doesn't have many of these. I think the Phoenix suburbs are much more conservative than the Denver ones as well. Age could also be a factor. I think Arizona has more seniors than Colorado. Arizona also has a higher Native American population than Colorado, although the amount of influence they wield in Arizona politics is unknown to me. One could also argue that she's doing better in Arizona and worse in Colorado due to backlash from each of the state's dominant parties. Maybe Arizona voters are getting tired of the far right-wing extremist policies pushed by the GOP legislature that have made Arizona a laughingstock to the rest of the country (SB 1070/immigration and the most recent discriminate against the gays bill that even went too far for nutter Brewer). I'd reckon Arizona voters are probably getting tired of the national media painting them as a bunch of racist xenophobic and homophobic bigots. As for Colorado, the backlash could also be from Democratic overreach with regards to gun control and pot legalization (yes, I realize pot was on the ballot that the voters approved, but Democrats are in power now and maybe more people aren't too thrilled about it being legal and so they blame it on the party that it's control). The recall of two Democratic state senators because of the gun control vote could also explain it. Just my opinion.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: March 07, 2014, 01:52:08 pm »

It's impossible to lose a Presidential election while winning 35 states



317 GOP
221 Dem

I think that we get the general idea. It's highly unlikely that either Party is going to win both California and Texas short of a 40-state landslide. How is a Republican going to win Vermont and not win about 45 states (OK, Landon won three states in 1936, one of which was Vermont)? Or Minnesota without winning 40+ states?

How is a Democrat now going to win Utah (short of the Republicans threatening to persecute the Mormons) without winning 45+ states?  That would be one way to get some comparisons between a Republican nominee and ... some fellow born about 80 years after Abraham Lincoln.
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« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2014, 06:25:38 pm »

If a Republican wins Vermont they have already won the other 49 states.
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hopper
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« Reply #23 on: March 08, 2014, 08:46:41 pm »

The interesting thing about AZ vs CO/NV/NM is that while NM has the highest latino/hispanic population, almost 50%... AZ is the second highest out of them with around 30% (give or take).

What dictates the final result in these states tends to be more about the mix of the non-latino voters, which is why AZ has remained consistently Republican, if you look at the results since 2000, the Democratic vote has barely shifted, while the state's latino population grows, why? Because it's white voters are older and more Republican.

Exit poll data from 2012
Colorado - Obama: White vote 44% (+5 on nation) - Latino vote 75% (+4 on nation)
Nevada - Obama: White vote 43% (+4 on nation) - Latino vote 71% ( -)
New Mexico - Obama: White vote: 41% (+2 on nation) - Latino vote 65% (-6 on nation)... but the Latino vote in NM is 37% of the electorate versus 14-17% in the other states

But Arizona?
Arizona - Obama: White vote 32% (-7 on nation) - Latino vote: 74% (+3 on nation)...

The Arizona GOP has on the whole gone far to the right. That's how the GOP went in California toward the end of its domination of California politics. The GOP has pushed some extreme politics, as if in the knowledge that enacting them is a now-or-never proposition.

Democrats can obviously win the Presidential election without Arizona. The state is frosting on the cake. With such a state as Pennsylvania or Virginia as the tipping-point state in 2016 I see this order of winning the states through Arizona:

New Hampshire
Iowa
Pennsylvania/Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Missouri
Indiana
  
Quote
Arizona will be a very tough ask for the Democrats, simply because while their Latino vote is stronger and larger than the nation as a whole... its white vote is REALLY Republican.

But know well: the enmity that whites have had toward Latinos has never been as severe as that against blacks.  White people in Arizona are more likely to have a Hispanic in-law.  
The GOP never dominated CA politics. Even before Prop 187 CA had a slight Dem tilt to it. The CA state House of Representative only went Republican once in recent memory and that was in 1995-1996.
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hopper
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« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2014, 08:50:31 pm »

If a Republican wins Vermont they have already won the other 49 states.
I don't think Republicans are gonna win Vermont anytime soon.
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