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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  AZ-PPP: Hillary Clinton leads all, except Jeb Bush
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Author Topic: AZ-PPP: Hillary Clinton leads all, except Jeb Bush  (Read 2066 times)
hopper
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« Reply #25 on: March 08, 2014, 08:53:02 pm »

Question:

Why is Hillary under-performing in Colorado and over-performing in Arizona?

The only explanation I have is that Coloradans is by far the most highly educated of the US states - and the US has never had a smarter, or at least more highly educated president, than Obama before. I'm pretty sure he's the first president ever to be a practically teaching professor in constitutional law. I mean, professionally you can't get any smarter than that - at least not within the US.

When it comes to Arizona, I guess it's a mixture of changing demographics and a very, very strong anti GOP backlash which they did not feel at all in 2008 and 2012 due to McCain being the aliviator in that one state but in none of the remaining 49.
Your maybe right about 2008 but in 2012 McCain wasn't on top of the ballot or ticket.
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hopper
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« Reply #26 on: March 08, 2014, 09:01:44 pm »

Bill Clinton won this state twice so would it be that big of a deal if Hillary won Arizona?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #27 on: March 08, 2014, 09:24:49 pm »

Bill Clinton won this state twice so would it be that big of a deal if Hillary won Arizona?

Clinton won it once -- in 1996. Perot may have splintered the conservative-leaning vote that year.

Arizona would seem, except for its older white population, to be similar to Colorado -- which Clinton won but once.

Arizona is a big deal even as one state. Eleven electoral votes is no triviality. Most significantly, if Hillary Clinton can win it in 2016, their could be a Senate seat up for grabs. (I figure that John McCain is approaching the end of the line). Should Democrats flip the areas around Phoenix and Tucson, then such could play a significant role in flipping the House of Representatives in 2016.

Arizona has gone for the Democratic nominee only once since 1948. If it goes D,  it's practically the equivalent of Virginia going for Barack Obama.  But even if it is close, then Hillary Clinton has about a 54-46 split of the popular vote and the Democrats are getting much the same in the overall House race.

 
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marty
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« Reply #28 on: March 09, 2014, 01:19:00 am »

2016 is not going to be pretty for republicans. It will prove that the so called "polarization" of America is largely a myth. Hillary might very well win the white vote, making her the first Democrat to do so in a long long time. And for those saying it is still early, all I have to say is that Jeb Bush and Christie have just as much name recognition as Hillary.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #29 on: March 09, 2014, 02:55:42 pm »

2016 is not going to be pretty for republicans. It will prove that the so called "polarization" of America is largely a myth. Hillary might very well win the white vote, making her the first Democrat to do so in a long long time. And for those saying it is still early, all I have to say is that Jeb Bush and Christie have just as much name recognition as Hillary.

That would be unlikely, but huge. For example, had Obama won the white vote in 2012, this would have been the map:



422-116
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