AZ-PPP: Hillary Clinton leads all, except Jeb Bush

[hopper]

The interesting thing about AZ vs CO/NV/NM is that while NM has the highest latino/hispanic population, almost 50%... AZ is the second highest out of them with around 30% (give or take).

What dictates the final result in these states tends to be more about the mix of the non-latino voters, which is why AZ has remained consistently Republican, if you look at the results since 2000, the Democratic vote has barely shifted, while the state's latino population grows, why? Because it's white voters are older and more Republican.

Exit poll data from 2012
Colorado - Obama: White vote 44% (+5 on nation) - Latino vote 75% (+4 on nation)
Nevada - Obama: White vote 43% (+4 on nation) - Latino vote 71% ( -)
New Mexico - Obama: White vote: 41% (+2 on nation) - Latino vote 65% (-6 on nation)... but the Latino vote in NM is 37% of the electorate versus 14-17% in the other states

But Arizona?
Arizona - Obama: White vote 32% (-7 on nation) - Latino vote: 74% (+3 on nation)...

The Arizona GOP has on the whole gone far to the right. That's how the GOP went in California toward the end of its domination of California politics. The GOP has pushed some extreme politics, as if in the knowledge that enacting them is a now-or-never proposition.

Democrats can obviously win the Presidential election without Arizona. The state is frosting on the cake. With such a state as Pennsylvania or Virginia as the tipping-point state in 2016 I see this order of winning the states through Arizona:

New Hampshire
Iowa
Pennsylvania/Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Missouri
Indiana
  

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But know well: the enmity that whites have had toward Latinos has never been as severe as that against blacks.  White people in Arizona are more likely to have a Hispanic in-law.  

The GOP never dominated CA politics. Even before Prop 187 CA had a slight Dem tilt to it. The CA state House of Representative only went Republican once in recent memory and that was in 1995-1996.

[hopper]

If a Republican wins Vermont they have already won the other 49 states.

I don't think Republicans are gonna win Vermont anytime soon.

[hopper]

Question:

Why is Hillary under-performing in Colorado and over-performing in Arizona?

The only explanation I have is that Coloradans is by far the most highly educated of the US states - and the US has never had a smarter, or at least more highly educated president, than Obama before. I'm pretty sure he's the first president ever to be a practically teaching professor in constitutional law. I mean, professionally you can't get any smarter than that - at least not within the US.

When it comes to Arizona, I guess it's a mixture of changing demographics and a very, very strong anti GOP backlash which they did not feel at all in 2008 and 2012 due to McCain being the aliviator in that one state but in none of the remaining 49.

Your maybe right about 2008 but in 2012 McCain wasn't on top of the ballot or ticket.

[hopper]

Bill Clinton won this state twice so would it be that big of a deal if Hillary won Arizona?