Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 22, 2020, 09:58:52 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Warrick County Clerk Discovers 3,791 Uncounted Ballots
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Warrick County Clerk Discovers 3,791 Uncounted Ballots  (Read 2156 times)
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,371
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 08, 2014, 10:59:03 am »
« edited: March 08, 2014, 11:03:49 am by Dave Leip »

The Warrick County, Indiana Clerk has recently announced a discovery that 3,791 early ballots cast in the 2012 General Election were left uncounted in the official results published. 

An analysis of the normalized turnout of the county (subtracting the statewide turnout vs. registered voters from the county turnout vs. registered voters) shows the following data:

YearRegCountyStateDifference
201249,97149.4%57.7%-8.3%
200846,71861.5%61.1%0.4%
200443,32960.1%57.4%2.7%
200039,01657.2%55.1%2.1%
199631,58266.8%61.2%5.6%
199227,53974.9%72.5%2.4%
198823,72578.2%75.7%2.5%
198422,70173.3%73.2%0.1%
198020,62980.3%76.1%4.2%

The mean from 1980-2008 is 2.5 with the standard deviation of 1.69.  the -8.3 is 6.4 standard deviations from the mean.  Very likely an error in total votes recorded in Warrick.
Logged
Mechaman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,809
Jamaica
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2014, 01:36:22 pm »

Looking at the Election Results on this website:

Definitely looks like this wouldn'tve helped Obama or John Gregg.  Donnelly beat Moreduck by almost 150,000 votes so it wouldn't even benefit the Republicans.  Congressional Results seem to verify no adverse outcome either:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana%27s_8th_congressional_district

So yes, in this case as the article says that the votes didn't seem to have that much of an effect on the race.  However, it should still be alarming that votes would go undiscovered for this long.  I mean, what if somebody finds those missing Nixon votes in Aurora?  Our timeline could be in jeopardy!
Logged
Nichlemn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,925


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2014, 05:14:51 pm »

I suspect that if there had been a razor-thin race, there would been a lot more effort to search for things like this.
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,114
Bangladesh


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2014, 10:08:36 am »

Will these results be retroactively be added to the total?
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,371
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2014, 06:56:26 am »

I have been sent the new report post-audit from Warrick County and the results have been modified on the atlas.

Enjoy,
Dave
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 46,982


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2014, 04:55:11 pm »

I suspect that if there had been a razor-thin race, there would been a lot more effort to search for things like this.

Sometimes they make a mistake election night but then fix it soon afterwards.

The 2000 race had two notable election night mistakes.
Gore was given -16,022 votes in a precinct, which caused Florida to mistakenly be called for Bush.
Gore was given 500 too few votes in New Mexico, which had Bush leading it election night.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC