FL-02/Anzalone Liszt Grove (Dem Internal): Southerland +2

[publicunofficial]

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Steve Southerland - 42
Gwen Graham - 40


Dems lead the generic ballot 41/36, and Crist is only leading Scott 46/43 here right now.

[Miles]

Odd that Graham would be trailing, as she's better than a generic Dem.

Sink carried it 52/45.

[Dereich]

Not odd at all. I'll say it till I'm blue in the face but nobody will listen. This election will come down to 1 or 2 points worth of swing voters and turnout, which I expect to be high for both sides. Neither side can get more than 52 or so. Every poll has shown and I expect every poll will show very high floors and very low ceilings. Which one they have up or down, especially this far away, is completely irrelevant.

[publicunofficial]

Not odd at all. I'll say it till I'm blue in the face but nobody will listen. This election will come down to 1 or 2 points worth of swing voters and turnout, which I expect to be high for both sides. Neither side can get more than 52 or so. Every poll has shown and I expect every poll will show very high floors and very low ceilings. Which one they have up or down, especially this far away, is completely irrelevant.

I agree. Neither candidate is likely to get past the low 50's or below the mid 40's.

Also, we're still a ways out from the real start of campaign season. Graham is still basically Generic D, although this poll asked the match-up question again after giving favorable bios of both candidates and Graham had a lead. An iffy way to do polls, but it's something.


My gut still says that in a neutral or better year, Graham wins this.

[NewYorkExpress]

Not odd at all. I'll say it till I'm blue in the face but nobody will listen. This election will come down to 1 or 2 points worth of swing voters and turnout, which I expect to be high for both sides. Neither side can get more than 52 or so. Every poll has shown and I expect every poll will show very high floors and very low ceilings. Which one they have up or down, especially this far away, is completely irrelevant.

I agree. Neither candidate is likely to get past the low 50's or below the mid 40's.

Also, we're still a ways out from the real start of campaign season. Graham is still basically Generic D, although this poll asked the match-up question again after giving favorable bios of both candidates and Graham had a lead. An iffy way to do polls, but it's something.


My gut still says that in a neutral or better year, Graham wins this.

Problem is the odds are it'll be worse than a neutral year for Democrats...

I'm thinking Southerland 51, Graham 47, with a bunch of write-in/ Minor party candidates taking the rest as the final result.