GA-Insider Advantage: Carter +3%

[JRP1994]

http://onlineathens.com/breaking-news/2014-03-13/poll-gubernatorial-challenger-carter-leads-deal

"Jason Carter, a Democratic state senator from Atlanta and grandson of Georgia’s only president, is slightly ahead of Deal, 41 percent to 38 percent.

However, the margin of error is 4 percent, leaving the two candidates effectively tied.

The online survey of 486 voters was conducted Sunday and Monday by InsiderAdvantage with OpinionSavvy on behalf of Morris News and WAGA-TV in Atlanta. It showed 21 percent remain undecided.

Fifty-nine percent of independents favor Carter, and more than one-fourth of Republicans haven’t made up their minds. That could be because Deal must overcome two challengers from his own party in the May 20 primary before facing Carter and Libertarian Andrew Hunt in the November general election."

[Adam Griffin]

InsiderAdvantage is a terrible pollster. I'm not sure I've ever seen a poll from them that was accurate in retrospect.

However, this poll seems - on the surface - like one of their less ridiculous ones. I don't buy that Carter's ahead by 3, though.

[JRP1994]

InsiderAdvantage is a terrible pollster. I'm not sure I've ever seen a poll from them that was accurate in retrospect.

However, this poll seems - on the surface - like one of their less ridiculous ones. I don't buy that Carter's ahead by 3, though.

Do they also have a history of exaggerating Democrat margins, out of curiosity?

[Adam Griffin]

InsiderAdvantage is a terrible pollster. I'm not sure I've ever seen a poll from them that was accurate in retrospect.

However, this poll seems - on the surface - like one of their less ridiculous ones. I don't buy that Carter's ahead by 3, though.

Do they also have a history of exaggerating Democrat margins, out of curiosity?

That was the only interesting part to it - no, they don't. Based on their inaccuracies in many other polls, I can't believe that Carter could realistically be up by upper-single digits, though.

Towrey has a lot of clout in local GOP circles due to his law/insurance background (and the fact that he served as the only Republican State House Leader iirc when Democrats still controlled it), but his bonafides as CEO of this polling firm are pretty weak. We should keep in mind that Newt Gingrich once referred to Towery as his favorite pollster and oldest friend.

Oh, and this.

[morgieb]

>insideradvantage

[LeBron]

Combined with snowgate, Deal's ethics scandals, and the segregated prom incident, I would be thinking that the Governor is possibly vulnerable, but yeah, this poll is junk when other polls suggest that Deal leads mostly in the single digits. As long as Carter gets some help from his grandpa to get his name out there, but maintains a very light and moderate record, this could be the opportunity for a competitive race, though I consider it lean R right now.

And is it possible that Pennington might be a threat to Deal in the primary? I saw him on MSNBC when the snowstorm controversy happened and he had some good talking points to take the unpopular Deal down on.

[Adam Griffin]

And is it possible that Pennington might be a threat to Deal in the primary? I saw him on MSNBC when the snowstorm controversy happened and he had some good talking points to take the unpopular Deal down on.

No. Pennington is my city's mayor; he is an absolute horror and can't possibly raise enough funds to beat Deal. It's not even about money, though, as Pennington just isn't the type of candidate that could win a Republican statewide primary in Georgia, in my opinion. He'd come close, though, if it weren't for an incumbent in the slot, due to his hack-and-slash budgetary encouragement at the municipal level.

[ElectionsGuy]

Meh, most likely Deal's up by single digits.