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Author Topic: CO-PPP: Gardner makes it tight  (Read 1853 times)
Miles
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« on: March 18, 2014, 09:33:56 am »

Article.

Udall- 42%
Gardner- 40%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2014, 09:41:12 am »

I have to say, I'm not really worried about this one.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2 on: March 18, 2014, 09:45:33 am »

Low 40s is the danger zone, but we'll see what happens over the summer.
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« Reply #3 on: March 18, 2014, 09:48:33 am »

Polls will tighten more later this summer.  Owen Hill drops out of race and supports Gardner.

http://gazette.com/owen-hill-ends-u.s.-senate-run-will-back-cory-gardner/article/1516639
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #4 on: March 18, 2014, 09:51:28 am »

I have to say, I'm not really worried about this one.
Being an optimist versus being a realist I see.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: March 18, 2014, 10:03:17 am »

I have to say, I'm not really worried about this one.

Neither am I consiering how far Hick is ahead. I think he helps pull Udall across the finish line.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: March 18, 2014, 11:19:29 am »

I have to say, I'm not really worried about this one.

Neither am I consiering how far Hick is ahead. I think he helps pull Udall across the finish line.

Gubernatorial coattails are largely a myth. Just look at Arkansas in 2010.

As I suspected the minute Gardner entered, this is now a toss up.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #7 on: March 18, 2014, 11:43:41 am »

Great news!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: March 18, 2014, 12:15:39 pm »

Yeah, Rasmussen was SO wrong.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2014, 12:29:42 pm »

Yeah, Rasmussen was SO wrong.

Rasmussen is a great of example of a pollster that is excellent when they tell someone what they want to hear, and irrelevant and horrible when they don't.
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Kevin
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« Reply #10 on: March 18, 2014, 12:38:27 pm »

Yeah, Rasmussen was SO wrong.

Rasmussen is a great of example of a pollster that is excellent when they tell someone what they want to hear, and irrelevant and horrible when they don't.

Of course you automatically discount any poll that doesn't show a Democrat leading even if it's from PPP.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #11 on: March 18, 2014, 01:00:40 pm »

Judging by how Hickenlooper is doing so much better than Udall in the same poll, I'm guessing Udall's numbers are lower because A) He's less well known (Therefore he's basically Generic D) and B) Is more tied to the national mood (And Obama).


That said, I'm still not worried. Udall is a perfect fit for Colorado and I'm confident he wins.
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Snek!
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« Reply #12 on: March 18, 2014, 01:06:43 pm »

I'm pretty confident too, there's just too much at stake and too much going for us not to win. If we don't we could be f[inks]ed coming into 2016. Either way, were either going to make what we have work or were going to work on it.
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Khristie Kreme Donuts
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« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2014, 01:09:17 pm »

The all-mail voting system Colorado is moving to virtually guarantees a Udall win.
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Joshgreen
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« Reply #14 on: March 18, 2014, 01:16:19 pm »

Dems usually underpoll in Colorado by 5-7 points, vote by mail helps Udall, if Bennett won in 2010 Udall wins, Cory Gardner is a weak candidate. Likely D.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: March 18, 2014, 02:14:00 pm »

Yeah, Rasmussen was SO wrong.

Rasmussen is a great of example of a pollster that is excellent when they tell someone what they want to hear, and irrelevant and horrible when they don't.

Of course you automatically discount any poll that doesn't show a Democrat leading even if it's from PPP.

Evidence? The only polls I discount are ones from firms with a horrible or no track record, or if there are several other reputable polls which show it to be an outlier.
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« Reply #16 on: March 18, 2014, 03:35:43 pm »

Judging by how Hickenlooper is doing so much better than Udall in the same poll, I'm guessing Udall's numbers are lower because A) He's less well known (Therefore he's basically Generic D) and B) Is more tied to the national mood (And Obama).


That said, I'm still not worried. Udall is a perfect fit for Colorado and I'm confident he wins.
You mean a perfect fit for New York or some far left state.
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5280
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« Reply #17 on: March 18, 2014, 03:37:38 pm »

The all-mail voting system Colorado is moving to virtually guarantees a Udall win.
Yeah, it's prone to fraud and people voting more than once.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #18 on: March 18, 2014, 03:37:53 pm »

Judging by how Hickenlooper is doing so much better than Udall in the same poll, I'm guessing Udall's numbers are lower because A) He's less well known (Therefore he's basically Generic D) and B) Is more tied to the national mood (And Obama).


That said, I'm still not worried. Udall is a perfect fit for Colorado and I'm confident he wins.
You mean a perfect fit for New York or some far left state.

Oh I'm sorry let me correct myself.


Udall is a perfect fit for the RELEVANT part of Colorado.
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backtored
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« Reply #19 on: March 18, 2014, 03:50:41 pm »

Judging by how Hickenlooper is doing so much better than Udall in the same poll, I'm guessing Udall's numbers are lower because A) He's less well known (Therefore he's basically Generic D) and B) Is more tied to the national mood (And Obama).


That said, I'm still not worried. Udall is a perfect fit for Colorado and I'm confident he wins.
You mean a perfect fit for New York or some far left state.

Oh I'm sorry let me correct myself.


Udall is a perfect fit for the RELEVANT part of Colorado.

Boulder?
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #20 on: March 18, 2014, 04:41:34 pm »

Judging by how Hickenlooper is doing so much better than Udall in the same poll, I'm guessing Udall's numbers are lower because A) He's less well known (Therefore he's basically Generic D) and B) Is more tied to the national mood (And Obama).


That said, I'm still not worried. Udall is a perfect fit for Colorado and I'm confident he wins.
You mean a perfect fit for New York or some far left state.

Oh I'm sorry let me correct myself.


Udall is a perfect fit for the RELEVANT part of Colorado.

Boulder?
The part that actually holds voting sway, IE, not the rural white part.

That said, I compare this race to Alaska; incumbent Democrats who are perfect fits for their states but whose environment still makes them seem vulnerable. Udall and Begich are both gonna win in the end.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #21 on: March 18, 2014, 04:45:47 pm »

The all-mail voting system Colorado is moving to virtually guarantees a Udall win.
Yeah, it's prone to fraud and people voting more than once.

This race must already be over if fraud is already being claimed
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: March 18, 2014, 05:20:30 pm »

The big question is why this is this close at this point? Udall hasn't really done much wrong from what I've seen, and some things right (like standing against the administration on NSA stuff).
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #23 on: March 18, 2014, 05:26:58 pm »

I have a feeling there's a few thing at play here, 18% undecideds, being early in the campaign, and the normal underpolling of latinos.

If Udall is down 3-4% going into the election, I'll be worried, otherwise, I think he'll be fine.
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Joshgreen
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« Reply #24 on: March 18, 2014, 05:43:43 pm »

The big question is why this is this close at this point? Udall hasn't really done much wrong from what I've seen, and some things right (like standing against the administration on NSA stuff).

Dems always underpoll early-on in Colorado, bro.
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