If Jeb is nominated, do you see a conservative third party emerging?

[Suburbia]

If Jeb Bush is nominated for the GOP nominee in 2016, do you see a conservative third party emerging to avenge the "RINO", "too-moderate" Dole-McCain-Romney" that most conservatives like Mark Levin, Savage, Glenn Beck rail about? Would that damage the GOP?

[Randy Bobandy]

No.

[5280]

People would stay home if Jeb Bush was nominated, it's going to happen.  You know he's pro Common Core right?

[SteveRogers]

Lol no

[Consciously Unconscious]

Lol no

This.  I think Jeb will appeal enough to the more conserative wing of the party.  Plus, they would much rather have another Bush than another Clinton.

[Bureaucat]

The fear of Hillary would drive conservatives to vote, regardless of their nominee.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Yeah, the same Tea Party ticket that ran in 2012 will run....

[Simfan34]

People would stay home if Jeb Bush was nominated, it's going to happen.  You know he's pro Common Core right?

It is to your discredit that I cannot tell if this is a joke.

[IceSpear]

People would stay home if Jeb Bush was nominated, it's going to happen.  You know he's pro Common Core right?

People said the same thing about Romney. Their hate for Obama still drove them to the polls.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Is there seriously angst against Jeb Bush somewhere on the right out there? Ugh

[IceSpear]

Is there seriously angst against Jeb Bush somewhere on the right out there? Ugh

There are people who think John Cornyn and Pat Roberts are RINOs.

[nuclearneo577]

If the Republican party had enough sane people, they would make a third party because his brother was arguably the worst president of all time. But then again, most Republicans who wouldn't vote for him would do it because he's not Conservative enough, which I find highly laughable.

[5280]

People would stay home if Jeb Bush was nominated, it's going to happen.  You know he's pro Common Core right?

It is to your discredit that I cannot tell if this is a joke.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/03/04/Jeb-Bush-Has-A-Common-Core-Problem

[Simfan34]

People would stay home if Jeb Bush was nominated, it's going to happen.  You know he's pro Common Core right?

It is to your discredit that I cannot tell if this is a joke.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/03/04/Jeb-Bush-Has-A-Common-Core-Problem

You were supposed to be joking.

[Maxwell]

Unfortunately no.

[Orser67]

I don't think that a conservative third party is going to emerge simply from the nomination of Bush, but I could definitely see an independent conservative candidate running and taking mid-to-high single digits. I think at least some conservatives will be more amenable to voting for an independent or staying home without Obama on the ballot (granted, Clinton or some other Democrat could have a similar effect).

If Bush (or another establishment-leaning Republican) wins in 2016, I could see that event helping to start a new conservative third party (especially in the context of a 2020 challenge).

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I could see a third party emerge that is not just about Conservatism, but also non-Interventionism in foreign policy along with opposition to government surveillance.

[nolesfan2011]

I could see a third party emerge that is not just about Conservatism, but also non-Interventionism in foreign policy along with opposition to government surveillance.

Yes, it's called the Libertarian party...


and same answer as usual, only if some bellweather candidate of the Evangelical right is willing to risk their career and do it, Pat Buchanan tried and failed miserably in 2000. Huckabee, Santorum, Palin or such would need to bolt, and get endorsements on top of that, then put up a George Wallace 68 level showing to matter, very unlikely, few politicians have the guts to leave the GOP when they still have something left in the tank.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I could see a third party emerge that is not just about Conservatism, but also non-Interventionism in foreign policy along with opposition to government surveillance.

Yes, it's called the Libertarian party...


and same answer as usual, only if some bellweather candidate of the Evangelical right is willing to risk their career and do it, Pat Buchanan tried and failed miserably in 2000. Huckabee, Santorum, Palin or such would need to bolt, and get endorsements on top of that, then put up a George Wallace 68 level showing to matter, very unlikely, few politicians have the guts to leave the GOP when they still have something left in the tank.

If Ron Paul was ten years younger he could pull off a good third party run.  Ben Carson could make a good showing if he makes it clear he's strongly pro-gun.  Rand Paul would likely never do it, though he would likely do very well.

[milhouse24]

would Gary Johnson run again ? 
He got a lot of votes last time, probably would have made it closer if those votes went to Romney. 

There might be enough pissed off code pinkers and other anti-war people to vote against both Hillary and Jeb. 

Hillary could face another "anti-war Obama" democrat or progressive, on her Left. 
Perhaps O'Malley would take a more drastic liberal stance on issues. 
Maybe Howard Dean runs again. 
Hillary has a greater penchant for controversial issues, which have died down, but if she says something to piss off liberals or moderates, she could lose easily. 

[Joshgreen]

No, the right-wingers will pathetically suck it up as they always do.

[CountryClassSF]

If Jeb Bush is nominated for the GOP nominee in 2016, do you see a conservative third party emerging to avenge the "RINO", "too-moderate" Dole-McCain-Romney" that most conservatives like Mark Levin, Savage, Glenn Beck rail about? Would that damage the GOP?

No. Jeb is proudly pro-life and pro-trad'l marriage. That's all I care about. Amnesty is par for the course in today's GOP, so the issue is pretty much cancelled out.

[Mordecai]

No, I think they would hate Hillary Clinton enough to bite the bullet and vote for Jeb.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The only candidate I can see causing a mass-breakaway from the GOP would be Muchael Bloomberg. Not that he'd run in a GOP primary, but I think the anti-gun thing alone would pretty much force conservatives out.

[Whacker77]

It's been close to two years since I last commented in this forum, but back then I was a big proponent of Jeb Bush running in 2012.  As my comment history shows, I even hoped for some sort of deadlocked convention that might bring him into the race because I never had any faith in Romney.  My comment history also shows that as early as late 2010, I advocated for Bush/Sandoval in 2012.

I only bring this up to show where my bias is.  So given that, it should come as no surprise that I think Bush is the best candidate the Republicans can field in 2016.  He has a record of conservative governance in Florida, he brings with him a key electoral swing state, and he can't easily be painted as anti-immigrant.

I know the very vocal minority believes Bush is some sort of RINO, but everything about his record says conservative.  Instead of speaking in hyperbole, he speaks with more measure.  That may not sit well with the Tea Party groups, but, as the polling in 2014 Senate primary races shows, their influence is fading.

I'm not sure if Bush will run (50-50 at best), but I think he'd be much stronger in the primary than CW suggests.  More than likely, he'd clear a good part of the potential field.  Rubio and Ryan wouldn't run.  Huckabee, if he's really considering it, would likely pass because he said in 2011 he definitely wouldn't run in 2012 if Bush ran.  It would also be tough to see what space there would be for Walker if Bush were to run.  I also think Christie would be less likely to run because his donor base would almost certainly be with Bush.  That would make it Bush vs. the Paul/Cruz crowd and the certifiably crazy crowd like Perry and Santorum.