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Author Topic: MT: Rasmussen: Daines by 14  (Read 2009 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« on: March 19, 2014, 10:34:26 am »

Link coming.

Daines (R)- 51%
Walsh (D)- 37%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2014, 12:11:02 pm »

Seems consistent with other polls, but obviously I want to see another source.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2014, 02:29:01 pm »

The election is gonna come down to where the Keystone pipeline matters, oil rich states. Our 50th seat is gonna be in addition to CO and NC, either AK or ARK, where runoffs in LA and Ga aren't paramount.
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badgate
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2014, 03:09:56 pm »

sh**t
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olowakandi
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2014, 03:14:20 pm »

If Rassy got you down 14 pts then he probably won't win. Boehlinger should drop out and let Walsh have a clear path in primary. Only way to save seat.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2014, 04:29:26 pm »

If Rassy got you down 14 pts then he probably won't win. Boehlinger should drop out and let Walsh have a clear path in primary. Only way to save seat.

Bohlingers more electable though.
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2014, 06:08:52 pm »

New Poll: Montana Senator by Rasmussen on 2014-03-18

Summary: D: 37%, R: 51%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2014, 10:02:09 pm »

If Rassy got you down 14 pts then he probably won't win. Boehlinger should drop out and let Walsh have a clear path in primary. Only way to save seat.

Bohlingers more electable though.

Most polls showed Walsh doing better than Bohlinger, even before Walsh's appointment.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2014, 10:11:46 pm »

If Rassy got you down 14 pts then he probably won't win. Boehlinger should drop out and let Walsh have a clear path in primary. Only way to save seat.

Bohlingers more electable though.

Most polls showed Walsh doing better than Bohlinger, even before Walsh's appointment.

That's genuinely wrong. The only two polls I've seen are PPP (Walsh trails 35-52, Bohlinger trails by a similar but smaller 36-51) and Harper (Walsh trails 29-43, Bohlinger by a smaller 32-43).

Either way, both candidates are not doing great, and it seems like a Blanche Lincoln v. Bill Halter. But either way, a continuing primary probably won't hurt too badly, so the whiners can stop.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2014, 10:15:26 pm by Attorney General Max »Logged
LeBron FitzGerald
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« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2014, 10:22:07 pm »

If Rassy got you down 14 pts then he probably won't win. Boehlinger should drop out and let Walsh have a clear path in primary. Only way to save seat.

Bohlingers more electable though.

Most polls showed Walsh doing better than Bohlinger, even before Walsh's appointment.

That's genuinely wrong. The only two polls I've seen are PPP (Walsh trails 35-52, Bohlinger trails by a similar but smaller 36-51) and Harper (Walsh trails 29-43, Bohlinger by a smaller 32-43).
That's barely a difference at all though and the only reason Bohlinger has that type of advantage is because of name ID and his crossover support. Walsh is a lot stronger among Democrats and PPP had him leading Bohlinger 39-31 which was before anyone knew that Baucus would be appointed Ambassador to China and Walsh appointed to the Senate seat. Assuming Walsh wins the primary from benefiting as the incumbent and having the backing of National Democratic support, the only thing this Bohlinger run will do is increase Daines' chances of winning the seat for the Republicans.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2014, 10:25:56 pm »

If Rassy got you down 14 pts then he probably won't win. Boehlinger should drop out and let Walsh have a clear path in primary. Only way to save seat.

Bohlingers more electable though.

Most polls showed Walsh doing better than Bohlinger, even before Walsh's appointment.

That's genuinely wrong. The only two polls I've seen are PPP (Walsh trails 35-52, Bohlinger trails by a similar but smaller 36-51) and Harper (Walsh trails 29-43, Bohlinger by a smaller 32-43).
That's barely a difference at all though and the only reason Bohlinger has that type of advantage is because of name ID and his crossover support. Walsh is a lot stronger among Democrats and PPP had him leading Bohlinger 39-31 which was before anyone knew that Baucus would be appointed Ambassador to China and Walsh appointed to the Senate seat. Assuming Walsh wins the primary from benefiting as the incumbent and having the backing of National Democratic support, the only thing this Bohlinger run will do is increase Daines' chances of winning the seat for the Republicans.

Because Hillary v. Obama caused President McCain, right? Come on that is a weak arguement that you guys keep throwing around. You guys argue that Walsh is such a stronger candidate, but Bohlinger is about as strong if not stronger than him in a general, and do you think Montana Democrats win because of a backing from the National organization? I doubt it. They win because they distance themselves from National Democrats (think: Brian Schweitzer)
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LeBron FitzGerald
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« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2014, 10:39:21 pm »

If Rassy got you down 14 pts then he probably won't win. Boehlinger should drop out and let Walsh have a clear path in primary. Only way to save seat.

Bohlingers more electable though.

Most polls showed Walsh doing better than Bohlinger, even before Walsh's appointment.

That's genuinely wrong. The only two polls I've seen are PPP (Walsh trails 35-52, Bohlinger trails by a similar but smaller 36-51) and Harper (Walsh trails 29-43, Bohlinger by a smaller 32-43).
That's barely a difference at all though and the only reason Bohlinger has that type of advantage is because of name ID and his crossover support. Walsh is a lot stronger among Democrats and PPP had him leading Bohlinger 39-31 which was before anyone knew that Baucus would be appointed Ambassador to China and Walsh appointed to the Senate seat. Assuming Walsh wins the primary from benefiting as the incumbent and having the backing of National Democratic support, the only thing this Bohlinger run will do is increase Daines' chances of winning the seat for the Republicans.

Because Hillary v. Obama caused President McCain, right? Come on that is a weak arguement that you guys keep throwing around. You guys argue that Walsh is such a stronger candidate, but Bohlinger is about as strong if not stronger than him in a general, and do you think Montana Democrats win because of a backing from the National organization? I doubt it. They win because they distance themselves from National Democrats (think: Brian Schweitzer)
It never goes well for Democrats in states like these though to avoid the President and the national party. Look at Pryor, Lincoln, Begich, and other vulnerable Senate Dems who could lose because they think their best strategy is to avoid outside support and run on these moderate voting records to keep themselves in office. Welp, Lincoln's out for being too independent of the Dems, Pryor is going down the same route and is angering liberals to, Landrieu is losing support for her support for the XL pipeline, Begich is refusing DSCC money and voted against background checks, and Bohlinger won't do any better as a former Republican in a state where Democrats tend to do surprisingly well in Senate elections.

Let's keep in mind to, the last Senate election Democrats lost was in 2000 when Brian Schweitzer himself lost. I guess he just didn't have faith in himself that he could win and he's relying on his right-hand man this time only to fail, as well. We got Tester to hold on twice in very tight elections and we could do the same with Walsh if Bohlinger wasn't in this. I mean, if Tester had faced a primary challenger in 2012 from say, Schweitzer, Tester could have survived the primary possibly by the skin of his teeth, but Rehberg right there would have increased his chances of winning.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2014, 10:54:06 pm »

If Rassy got you down 14 pts then he probably won't win. Boehlinger should drop out and let Walsh have a clear path in primary. Only way to save seat.

Bohlingers more electable though.

Most polls showed Walsh doing better than Bohlinger, even before Walsh's appointment.

That's genuinely wrong. The only two polls I've seen are PPP (Walsh trails 35-52, Bohlinger trails by a similar but smaller 36-51) and Harper (Walsh trails 29-43, Bohlinger by a smaller 32-43).
That's barely a difference at all though and the only reason Bohlinger has that type of advantage is because of name ID and his crossover support. Walsh is a lot stronger among Democrats and PPP had him leading Bohlinger 39-31 which was before anyone knew that Baucus would be appointed Ambassador to China and Walsh appointed to the Senate seat. Assuming Walsh wins the primary from benefiting as the incumbent and having the backing of National Democratic support, the only thing this Bohlinger run will do is increase Daines' chances of winning the seat for the Republicans.

Because Hillary v. Obama caused President McCain, right? Come on that is a weak arguement that you guys keep throwing around. You guys argue that Walsh is such a stronger candidate, but Bohlinger is about as strong if not stronger than him in a general, and do you think Montana Democrats win because of a backing from the National organization? I doubt it. They win because they distance themselves from National Democrats (think: Brian Schweitzer)
It never goes well for Democrats in states like these though to avoid the President and the national party. Look at Pryor, Lincoln, Begich, and other vulnerable Senate Dems who could lose because they think their best strategy is to avoid outside support and run on these moderate voting records to keep themselves in office. Welp, Lincoln's out for being too independent of the Dems, Pryor is going down the same route and is angering liberals to, Landrieu is losing support for her support for the XL pipeline, Begich is refusing DSCC money and voted against background checks, and Bohlinger won't do any better as a former Republican in a state where Democrats tend to do surprisingly well in Senate elections.

Let's keep in mind to, the last Senate election Democrats lost was in 2000 when Brian Schweitzer himself lost. I guess he just didn't have faith in himself that he could win and he's relying on his right-hand man this time only to fail, as well. We got Tester to hold on twice in very tight elections and we could do the same with Walsh if Bohlinger wasn't in this. I mean, if Tester had faced a primary challenger in 2012 from say, Schweitzer, Tester could have survived the primary possibly by the skin of his teeth, but Rehberg right there would have increased his chances of winning.

Really? It never goes well? Landrieu has survived for so long because she has stayed away from the national party line. How can you even argue this point? Max Baucus, Senator for a long time, was an independent voice, who lost sway when he became the national voice for centrism and obnoxiousness. Pryor is losing now because of pure political incompetence.

Democrats have the hallmark example of when primaries do very little damage, and yet they are so eager to avoid any sort of primary challenge against their established candidate. It makes so little sense to me.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2014, 06:33:37 am »

It's about time we stop calling this a damn toss-up.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2014, 07:30:26 am »

It's about time we stop calling this a damn toss-up.
This race has never been a toss up.

But seriously guys, remember the problem of "name recognition".
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« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2014, 10:15:43 am »

Lean Republican, if only because we don't have a firm grasp on Walsh's name ID. Basically he's generic D at this point. I expect the polling to tighten as Walsh defines himself. Daines obviously favored but the Dems putting up a fight in the house race is probably beneficial to Walsh.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2014, 12:41:59 pm »

It's about time we stop calling this a damn toss-up.

I thought it was pretty much agreed upon this was a lean R race once Schweitzer declined/Daines jumped in, though it's starting to look more like likely R at this point.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2014, 03:10:43 pm »

It's about time we stop calling this a damn toss-up.

I thought it was pretty much agreed upon this was a lean R race once Schweitzer declined/Daines jumped in, though it's starting to look more like likely R at this point.

Well the only reason I said that is because we have (or had) plenty of democrats saying Walsh would win. And in the predictions section, the average confidence rating is a toss-up.
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« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2014, 03:57:04 pm »

It's lean R for now, but it still has toss-up potential.
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SWE
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« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2014, 04:01:54 pm »

Likely R. Daines would have to screw up big time to give Dems a real chance here
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« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2014, 06:13:14 pm »

Likely R. Daines would have to screw up big time to give Dems a real chance here.

Not at all. Walsh needs to increase his name ID. When he does, this race will tighten.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #21 on: March 22, 2014, 12:38:04 pm »

Likely R. Daines would have to screw up big time to give Dems a real chance here.

Not at all. Walsh needs to increase his name ID. When he does, this race will tighten.
No.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #22 on: March 22, 2014, 12:39:37 pm »

Likely R. Daines would have to screw up big time to give Dems a real chance here.

Not at all. Walsh needs to increase his name ID. When he does, this race will tighten.
No.
A constructive answer, knowledgeable Jerryarkansas.
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« Reply #23 on: March 22, 2014, 12:41:39 pm »

Jerry has a point: this is the same margin, almost exact same number, that PPP found 6 months ago.
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« Reply #24 on: March 22, 2014, 01:01:03 pm »

Safe R

The Sun would need to go supernova before Walsh or Bohlinger could win this seat (Same with Weilnand/Pressler and South Dakota, Pryor and Arkansas)
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