NC-PrimR: SUSA: Tillis up, Brannon in second

[Miles]

Report.

Tillis- 28%
Snyder- 4%
Kryn- 3%
Harris- 6%
Grant- 11%
Bradshaw- 4%
Brannon- 15%
Alexander- 7%
Unsure- 23%

Well, it was nice to have a good pollster look at this race.

[Miles]

Miles do you think this is a credible pollster?

Of course.

[Miles]

Breaking down the crosstabs, I'm not sure why Grant is stronger than Harris. Her strength is with younger voters, as she's first among them (with 17% though). She's not performing especially well with women, either. Huckabee should be able to help Harris' visibility, but it might be too late.

As I said, in terms of the issues they emphasize, Brannon and Grant have a lot in common. They should be able to trade supporters pretty easily in a runoff.

I'm curious as to how much more support Tillis will get in the primary. It pretty much depends on how conservative the undecideds are, IMO. A lot of Brannon/Harris/Grant people seem to think Tillis is an ally of Rove.

[Maxwell]

Alexander is doing better than Harris. How come Alexander is not at all talked about, while Harris is basically second to Tillis in terms of the conversation of the beltway?

[Miles]

Alexander is doing better than Harris. How come Alexander is not at all talked about, while Harris is basically second to Tillis in terms of the conversation of the beltway?

Alexander got in late, so he missed out on lots of the earlier debates. Other than a few local radio interviews, his campaign hasn't done any really events or gotten any high-profile endorsements.

Harris is mentioned because he's supposed to be the Christian socon candidate. Some are trying to cast the primary as a proxy war between Rove (Tillis), Huckabee (Harris) and Paul (Brannon). The other candidates don't really fit cleanly into that narrative so don't they get as much press.

[Tender Branson]

Worth noting that Sen. Hagan's approval rating among all registered voters in the state is a crappy 34-54 ... With these numbers, she's in BIG trouble.