This is how out-of-whack the Electoral College could be in 2016
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  This is how out-of-whack the Electoral College could be in 2016
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Author Topic: This is how out-of-whack the Electoral College could be in 2016  (Read 1477 times)
Adam Griffin
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« on: March 23, 2014, 06:29:48 AM »

Can you create a bigger discrepancy? If you raise AA support to historical averages, the Dem still wins the PV by one full percentage point (same EVs).

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Mechaman
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2014, 09:16:40 AM »

Can you create a bigger discrepancy? If you raise AA support to historical averages, the Dem still wins the PV by one full percentage point (same EVs).



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buritobr
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« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2014, 09:36:14 AM »

The African American vote is not very important for the Electoral College. In the states where the African American population is big, almost all the whites vote Republican, and then, the Republicans take all the delegates of these states.
New York and Maryland have also high African American population, but in these states, the Democrats win even without the African American vote.

The hispanic vote is much more important for the Electoral College, because there are many hispanics in swing states.
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Sol
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« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2014, 10:10:00 AM »

The African American vote is not very important for the Electoral College. In the states where the African American population is big, almost all the whites vote Republican, and then, the Republicans take all the delegates of these states.
New York and Maryland have also high African American population, but in these states, the Democrats win even without the African American vote.

The hispanic vote is much more important for the Electoral College, because there are many hispanics in swing states.

Obama won Ohio due to very high Black turnout. It helped him a good bit in Nevada, PA, and Virginia too.
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Randy Bobandy
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« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2014, 11:37:12 AM »

The African American vote is not very important for the Electoral College. In the states where the African American population is big, almost all the whites vote Republican, and then, the Republicans take all the delegates of these states.
New York and Maryland have also high African American population, but in these states, the Democrats win even without the African American vote.

The hispanic vote is much more important for the Electoral College, because there are many hispanics in swing states.

Obama won Ohio due to very high Black turnout. It helped him a good bit in Nevada, PA, and Virginia too.
How about Indiana and NC?
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old timey villain
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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2014, 03:22:42 PM »

The African American vote is not very important for the Electoral College. In the states where the African American population is big, almost all the whites vote Republican, and then, the Republicans take all the delegates of these states.
New York and Maryland have also high African American population, but in these states, the Democrats win even without the African American vote.

The hispanic vote is much more important for the Electoral College, because there are many hispanics in swing states.

No dude. I can think of many states where that isn't the case. Try Ohio, Florida, Virginia, NC, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and probably Illinois without Obama on the ballot. Without the black vote, those states probably would have gone Republican (and in NC's case, even more Republican)
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Smash255
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2014, 11:13:52 PM »

Can you create a bigger discrepancy? If you raise AA support to historical averages, the Dem still wins the PV by one full percentage point (same EVs).



Perhaps not playing with that model, but I don't think its that far fetched to have VA about 2 points more Democratic than the nation in 2016, so you could have the same PV margin for the GOP, yet 285 EV's for the Dems.  Unlikely?  Yes, but plausible.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2014, 11:47:53 PM »

No dude. I can think of many states where that isn't the case. Try Ohio, Florida, Virginia, NC, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and probably Illinois without Obama on the ballot. Without the black vote, those states probably would have gone Republican (and in NC's case, even more Republican)

Assuming 2004 levels of turnout among blacks in 2012, only Ohio and Florida would have flipped (Obama 285-Romney 263).

Perhaps not playing with that model, but I don't think its that far fetched to have VA about 2 points more Democratic than the nation in 2016, so you could have the same PV margin for the GOP, yet 285 EV's for the Dems.  Unlikely?  Yes, but plausible.

I tried tinkering with the map to where Virginia was showing up as barely Republican; I got a 1.6-point PV victory for Republicans (with Dems getting 37% of whites, 90% of blacks and 70% of latinos/asians), but PA in that case would be R+1.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2014, 09:52:50 AM »


Perhaps not playing with that model, but I don't think its that far fetched to have VA about 2 points more Democratic than the nation in 2016, so you could have the same PV margin for the GOP, yet 285 EV's for the Dems.  Unlikely?  Yes, but plausible.

Virginia can end up being several points more Democratic than the nation since there are several potential national candidates in the state.

If the election swing by five points in every state but Virginia, you could have the following map.



Warner/ Gilibrand- 47% PV, 285 Electoral Votes
Paul/ Walker- 52% PV, 253 Electoral Votes
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kohler
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« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2014, 01:21:39 PM »

By 2016, The National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country, by replacing state winner-take-all laws.

Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps of pre-determined outcomes. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in 80% of the states that now are just 'spectators' and ignored after the conventions.
      
The bill would take effect when enacted by states with a majority of Electoral College votes—that is, enough to elect a President (270 of 538). The candidate receiving the most popular votes from all 50 states (and DC) would get all the 270+ electoral votes of the enacting states.
      
The presidential election system, using the 48 state winner-take-all method or district winner method of awarding electoral votes, that we have today was not designed, anticipated, or favored by the Founders.  It is the product of decades of change precipitated by the emergence of political parties and enactment by 48 states of winner-take-all laws, not mentioned, much less endorsed, in the Constitution.

The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founders in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for President. States can, and have, changed their method of awarding electoral votes over the years. Historically, major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.
         
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided).
Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls
in recent or past closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA --75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%;
in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%;
in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and
in other states polled: AZ – 67%, CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%.
Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.
         
The bill has passed 33 state legislative chambers in 22 rural, small, medium, and large states with 250 electoral votes. The bill has been enacted by 10 jurisdictions with 136 electoral votes – 50.4% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
               
NationalPopularVote      
Follow National Popular Vote on Facebook via NationalPopularVoteInc
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Matty
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« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2014, 03:31:01 PM »

I saw someone able to produce a 30 point electoral victory for democrats, while republicans won the popular vote by almost 5 percentage points!
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2014, 08:17:14 PM »

The African American vote is not very important for the Electoral College. In the states where the African American population is big, almost all the whites vote Republican, and then, the Republicans take all the delegates of these states.
New York and Maryland have also high African American population, but in these states, the Democrats win even without the African American vote.

The hispanic vote is much more important for the Electoral College, because there are many hispanics in swing states.

Umm what?

Obama relied on the black vote to win Virginia.  Philadelphia delivers Pennsylvania to Democrats basically because of an overwhelming black vote.  Even in states like Connecticut, if you factor out the black vote the state becomes much more competitive.
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