AK:Rasmussen: Treadwell leads, Sullivan ties Begich

[Miles]

Article.

Treadwell- 47%
Begich- 43%

Sullivan- 44%
Begich- 44%

[Oldiesfreak1854]

We can win this race as long as the Tea Partiers don't screw it up like they've done so many times before.

[Maxwell]

Rassy is Rassy, but there is no reason not to believe this won't be close.

[Potatoe]

We can win this race as long as the Tea Partiers don't screw it up like they've done so many times before.

Hopefully they do, they did it in the same state 4 years ago with Murkowski, they'd probably do it this year.

[Lief 🗽]

No way to know what'll happen here until election day. Alaska polls are garbage.

[Tender Branson]

No way to know what'll happen here until election day. Alaska polls are garbage.

[SPC]

The question is whether Alaska polls overestimate Democratic support or underestimate incumbent support. (Too bad there were no 2012 polls to test this hypothesis)

[moderatevoter]

Wasn't Begich up by like 8 in some polls, and 22 in others in 2008?

[Senator Cris]

Results:

Begich (D) 48%
Stevens (R) 47%

[Morning in Atlas]

>alaska polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will see what PPP polling has. This I'd say is the same poll that we saw from Harper group of polls that came out. Treadwill isn't gonna be nominee.

[IceSpear]

The question is whether Alaska polls overestimate Democratic support or underestimate incumbent support. (Too bad there were no 2012 polls to test this hypothesis)

Funnily enough, the 2010 polls both overestimated Democratic support AND underestimated incumbent support.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2010#Polling_2

Also, just a reminder, Research 2000 was proven to be a fradulent polling firm, so I'm not sure why Wikipedia lists it. Just nobody cares to edit old election articles?

[Maxwell]

The question is whether Alaska polls overestimate Democratic support or underestimate incumbent support. (Too bad there were no 2012 polls to test this hypothesis)

Funnily enough, the 2010 polls both overestimated Democratic support AND underestimated incumbent support.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2010#Polling_2

Also, just a reminder, Research 2000 was proven to be a fradulent polling firm, so I'm not sure why Wikipedia lists it. Just nobody cares to edit old election articles?

Well, CNN was pretty damn accurate.

[Matty]

Is Alaska hard to poll because of how small the electorate is?

[LeBron]

Is Alaska hard to poll because of how small the electorate is?

That and Alaska is a very elastic, independent state. Plus, it's not part of the continental United States, either.

I would take this poll with a grain of salt (only because it's Rassy), but Treadwell is probably only doing better against Begich than Sullivan is because he's already spent most of his money on ads and resources already while Sullivan has barely spent anything, but has lots of cash on hand. So Sullivan is definitely favored still in the primary with his money and conservative support while Begich continues to try and mess this race up and "go solo." It's still a tossup and this seat would likely be 5th to go if Dems do lose that many in November.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I wouldn't read to much into the difference save for the fact that as was stated Treadwell has spent most of his primary money and Sullivan has not.

Sullivan was doing better then Treadwell a few weeks ago.