Catholic swing driven by wedge issues I'd guess. Don't see a trend at all.
That's funny that the Catholics are turning right about now, cuz Rhode Island historically, since the time it was a small colony was known for being a safe haven when Catholics weren't persecuted for not having Protestant beliefs. Considering traditionally Protestants prefer Republicans and Catholics prefer Democrats, it is interestinng to see this change.
As long as people vote on social issues, Catholics will vote for the Republican, that is unless the Democrats turn populist on us.
Jake, I think you have to make a distinction between nominal Catholics and practicing Catholics. Only a certain percentage of nominal Catholics are practicing, and they are the ones most likely to vote Republican. All my parents' old friends are practicing Catholics, and they all vote Republican. Always did, by the way. It's nothing recent.
Most of my friends who are practicing Catholics, or even Christians who take the religion seriously, vote Republican. The Democratic party is for non-religious people, even if they call themselves Catholic or Christian.
But "non-religous" folks comprise only 15% of the nation; while Christians comprise 75%. In a rang of 55-45, there certainly are religous Democrats; but they emphasize economic issues and aren't that easily wedge-issue driven.
Its not that black-and-white. One of my best friends is actually a Republican despite him being an all-out athiest. Another one of my friends is very religous and very socially conservative and is still a Democrat, solely because of economic issues.