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  Most politically "unhappy" county by state
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Author Topic: Most politically "unhappy" county by state  (Read 2710 times)
Nichlemn
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« on: March 29, 2014, 03:45:19 am »
« edited: March 30, 2014, 05:06:16 pm by Nichlemn »

States in italics have no county that voted for the losing candidate. States in bold have at least one county that voted at least 70% for the losing candidate.

States roughly arranged from West to East because that's how I went through them and I can't be bothered alphabetising them.

AK - Unknown
HI - Honolulu County, 68% Obama
WA - Garfield County, 71% Romney
OR - Lake County, 76% Romney
CA - Modoc County, 69% Romney
ID - Blaine County, 59% Obama
NV - Eureka County, 82% Romney
AZ - Santa Cruz County, 68% Obama
UT - Summit County, 50% Romney
MT - Glacier County, 66% Obama
WY - Teton County, 54% Obama
CO - Kiowa County, 82% Romney
NM - Lea County, 75% Romney
ND - Sioux County, 79% Obama
SD - Shannon county, 93% Obama (Most Democratic county in US)
NE - Thurston County, 56% Obama.
KS - Wyandotte County, 68% Obama
OK - Cherokee County, 57% Romney
TX - Starr County, 86% Obama
MN - Wadena County, 61% Romney
IA - Sioux County, 83% Romney
MO - St Louis City - 82% Obama. (Jackson County at 59% Obama if you don't count it).
AR - Phillips County - 66% Obama
WI - Washington County, 70% Romney (rounded up)
IL - Wayne County, 78% Romney
MI - Ottawa County, 66% Romney
OH - Mercer County, 76% Romney
IN - Lake County - 65% Obama
KY - Jefferson County, 55% Obama
TN - Shelby County, 63% Obama
MS - Jefferson County, 89% Obama
AL - Macon County, 87% Obama
GA - Hancock County, 81% Obama
FL - Holmes County, 83% Romney
SC - Allendale County, 79% Obama
LA - Orleans Parish, 80% Obama
NC - Durham County, 76% Obama
VA - Tazewell County, 78% Romney

WV - Jefferson County, 51% Romney
PA - Fulton County, 77% Romney
MD - Garrett County, 74% Romney

DE - Sussex County, 56% Romney
NJ - Sussex County, 60% Romney
NY - Wyoming County, 63% Romney
VT - Essex County, 55% Obama
MA - Plymouth County, 51% Obama
CT - Litchfield County, 51% Romney
RI - Washinton County, 57% Obama
NH - Belknap County, 52% Romney
ME - Piscataquis County, 51% Romney

I was somewhat surprised that Obama has the unhappiest counties, but it makes sense given the existence of small, largely minority counties. All of the "very unhappy counties" seem to be majority black in the South, a Hispanic one in Texas and two Native American reservations in the Dakotas.
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Sol
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« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2014, 05:21:30 pm »

I don't think Fulton County, PA, voted for Obama. Tongue
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2014, 06:05:49 pm »

I don't think Fulton County, PA, voted for Obama. Tongue

Corrected. I had a few of those earlier, must have missed that one.
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Flake
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« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2014, 05:17:21 am »

Florida seems to be missing Tongue
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2014, 05:06:34 pm »


Fixed. Probably not the last mistake either...
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2014, 06:52:34 pm »


Fixed. Probably not the last mistake either...

That's the only state you missed, and I can't spot anything else.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #6 on: March 30, 2014, 07:13:48 pm »


Fixed. Probably not the last mistake either...

That's the only state you missed, and I can't spot anything else.

I've probably missed the top county in at least one state, having listed the second best instead.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2014, 11:48:16 am »

I think it would also be interesting to pick the county that voted most unlike the rest of the state that also has the most people. I think those counties would be more "unhappy" because they have the most residents that voted against the state winner. So, some examples:

California: Orange County/ 1,122,664 votes /53% Romney

Georgia: Dekalb County/ 306,858 votes/ 78% Obama

Ohio: Butler County/ 170,530 votes/ 62% Romney

Texas: Travis County/ 387,057 votes/ 60% Obama

Colorado: El Paso County/ 290,175 votes/ 59% Romney

West Virginia: Kanawha County/ 75,312 votes/ 55% Romney

It doesn't work as well for every state and a lot of it is up for debate but I think it's interesting to look at.


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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2014, 07:24:47 pm »

I think it would also be interesting to pick the county that voted most unlike the rest of the state that also has the most people. I think those counties would be more "unhappy" because they have the most residents that voted against the state winner. So, some examples:

California: Orange County/ 1,122,664 votes /53% Romney

Georgia: Dekalb County/ 306,858 votes/ 78% Obama

Ohio: Butler County/ 170,530 votes/ 62% Romney

Texas: Travis County/ 387,057 votes/ 60% Obama

Colorado: El Paso County/ 290,175 votes/ 59% Romney

West Virginia: Kanawha County/ 75,312 votes/ 55% Romney

It doesn't work as well for every state and a lot of it is up for debate but I think it's interesting to look at.

Interesting, my question for this though, would be are we directly combining the elements of large population and large % margin somehow, or is it just the largest county that voted against the state winner? With the latter I could say Harris County, TX is the unhappiest of the counties in Texas just because its the largest although it only went to Obama by under 1,000 votes and 0.1%.

For the former we could just use county vote margins (winner votes minus loser votes). Since Dallas County, TX has the highest Obama vote margin, it could be considered the most unhappy county. Same with Sioux, IA even though its not the most populated county to vote for Romney.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #9 on: April 05, 2014, 07:56:28 pm »

I think it would also be interesting to pick the county that voted most unlike the rest of the state that also has the most people. I think those counties would be more "unhappy" because they have the most residents that voted against the state winner. So, some examples:

California: Orange County/ 1,122,664 votes /53% Romney

Georgia: Dekalb County/ 306,858 votes/ 78% Obama

Ohio: Butler County/ 170,530 votes/ 62% Romney

Texas: Travis County/ 387,057 votes/ 60% Obama

Colorado: El Paso County/ 290,175 votes/ 59% Romney

West Virginia: Kanawha County/ 75,312 votes/ 55% Romney

It doesn't work as well for every state and a lot of it is up for debate but I think it's interesting to look at.

Interesting, my question for this though, would be are we directly combining the elements of large population and large % margin somehow, or is it just the largest county that voted against the state winner? With the latter I could say Harris County, TX is the unhappiest of the counties in Texas just because its the largest although it only went to Obama by under 1,000 votes and 0.1%.

For the former we could just use county vote margins (winner votes minus loser votes). Since Dallas County, TX has the highest Obama vote margin, it could be considered the most unhappy county. Same with Sioux, IA even though its not the most populated county to vote for Romney.

Yeah, I mean that's why it's tricky. There's two components involved- county population and the percentage that the candidate losing statewide received in that county. I'm sure there's a formula that someone could cook up but I'm not a math person so I just used my judgments for those states. I like your idea of just counting up the total votes though.

Texas was tough because almost every urban county voted for Obama so they're all in the running for most politically unhappy. However, Obama barely won Harris County and Romney broke 40% in Dallas and Bexar counties. Travis County is another large urban county, comparable to the others I mentioned, where Romney got less than 40% so I chose that one.

California was easier because pretty much every county worth mentioning voted for Obama. Orange County really stands out as pretty much the last urban/suburban county in the state to vote for Romney, even if it wasn't a blowout. I'm sure an average resident would describe their county as "politically unhappy" as well.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2014, 08:09:32 pm »

I used Presidential results because they're easy, but it's probably the statewide results that matter most. Like the typical resident of New Orleans would have been happy on election night 2012 because Obama won, not caring so much that their state didn't vote for Obama. But the typical resident of New Orleans is probably relatively unhappy with the state government, so the proxy works out. However, some counties vote differently at the state level and some states are controlled by parties other than who they recently voted for President. For instance, Wayne County, MI (Detroit) is probably the "unhappiest" county in Michigan recently.



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