MS: Rasmussen: Rs favored either way

[IceSpear]

Oh, no! McDaniel only up by twelve! TOSS UP!

But you think Corbett has a good chance of winning and he's down 20 in the latest poll, so...?

I never, ever said that so now you're just resorting to flat out lying. Very pathetic.

So you admit Corbett is doomed?

So this was set up as an idiotic gotcha question?  

Here's a piece of knowledge for you: not thinking Corbett is in "good shape" (which you should admit was an outright lie that I ever thought that during this cycle) doesn't necessarily mean one thinks a dramatic comeback is out of the question. Doesn't mean I think that will happen either but your point was that never saying he's in good shape means he's doomed. It doesn't work that work.  

Well, if we're going to play the "act obnoxious over a single poll without considering any other factors" game, then Childers has a higher chance of beating McDaniel AND Cochran than Corbett does of beating Wolf. That was my point.

Besides, literally nobody has ever said it would be a toss up if McDaniel won, per the responses in the other topic you yourself made.

..."literally" nobody said it would be a toss up? Seven people voted "yes" to "Do you really think the Dems would pick up MS if McDaniel is the nominee?"

Learn what literally means, dude.

7 people. Out of 63. Clearly not some widespread attitude that must be countered. I'm sure you could get a few votes for Wyoming being a Dem pickup or Rhode Island being a Republican pickup solely due to joke votes, troll votes, or accidentally clicking the wrong button.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, no! McDaniel only up by twelve! TOSS UP!

But you think Corbett has a good chance of winning and he's down 20 in the latest poll, so...?

I never, ever said that so now you're just resorting to flat out lying. Very pathetic.

So you admit Corbett is doomed?

So this was set up as an idiotic gotcha question?  

Here's a piece of knowledge for you: not thinking Corbett is in "good shape" (which you should admit was an outright lie that I ever thought that during this cycle) doesn't necessarily mean one thinks a dramatic comeback is out of the question. Doesn't mean I think that will happen either but your point was that never saying he's in good shape means he's doomed. It doesn't work that work.  

Well, if we're going to play the "act obnoxious over a single poll without considering any other factors" game, then Childers has a higher chance of beating McDaniel AND Cochran than Corbett does of beating Wolf. That was my point.

Besides, literally nobody has ever said it would be a toss up if McDaniel won, per the responses in the other topic you yourself made.

..."literally" nobody said it would be a toss up? Seven people voted "yes" to "Do you really think the Dems would pick up MS if McDaniel is the nominee?"

Learn what literally means, dude.

7 people. Out of 63. Clearly not some widespread attitude that must be countered. I'm sure you could get a few votes for Wyoming being a Dem pickup or Rhode Island being a Republican pickup solely due to joke votes, troll votes, or accidentally clicking the wrong button.

Seven people out of 63 =/= "no one" and one person was strongly arguing the point that it would be a competitive race if you bothered to read the thread that you chose to cite. But I love this justification you're using. "Hey, some people might have accidentally hit that button!"

And this is your convoluted way of excusing your idiotic, false point that I said Corbett had a good chance at winning? You should have just owned up to it and admitted that you wrongly thought I argued something that I didn't. Please. You lost this one. Give it up. Stop digging.

[IceSpear]

Oh, no! McDaniel only up by twelve! TOSS UP!

But you think Corbett has a good chance of winning and he's down 20 in the latest poll, so...?

I never, ever said that so now you're just resorting to flat out lying. Very pathetic.

So you admit Corbett is doomed?

So this was set up as an idiotic gotcha question?  

Here's a piece of knowledge for you: not thinking Corbett is in "good shape" (which you should admit was an outright lie that I ever thought that during this cycle) doesn't necessarily mean one thinks a dramatic comeback is out of the question. Doesn't mean I think that will happen either but your point was that never saying he's in good shape means he's doomed. It doesn't work that work.  

Well, if we're going to play the "act obnoxious over a single poll without considering any other factors" game, then Childers has a higher chance of beating McDaniel AND Cochran than Corbett does of beating Wolf. That was my point.

Besides, literally nobody has ever said it would be a toss up if McDaniel won, per the responses in the other topic you yourself made.

..."literally" nobody said it would be a toss up? Seven people voted "yes" to "Do you really think the Dems would pick up MS if McDaniel is the nominee?"

Learn what literally means, dude.

7 people. Out of 63. Clearly not some widespread attitude that must be countered. I'm sure you could get a few votes for Wyoming being a Dem pickup or Rhode Island being a Republican pickup solely due to joke votes, troll votes, or accidentally clicking the wrong button.

Seven people out of 63 =/= "no one" and one person was strongly arguing the point that it would be a competitive race if you bothered to read the thread that you chose to cite. But I love this justification you're using. "Hey, some people might have accidentally hit that button!"

And this is your convoluted way of excusing your idiotic, false point that I said Corbett had a good chance at winning? You should have just owned up to it and admitted that you wrongly thought I argued something that I didn't. Please. You lost this one. Give it up. Stop digging.

Competitive =/= toss up. A "lean" race would still be competitive. And wow, ONE person? I'm astonished. You can find one person who believes anything. Should we start obnoxiously ranting every time some piece of evidence proves a flat earther wrong?

As for "good chance", that was just poor wording. But you clearly think there's a path to victory for Corbett, despite him trailing Wolf even worse than Childers does against McDaniel AND Cochran (which I'm assuming is a race you consider safe R no matter who is the nominee, judging from your other thread and comments here). By the way, it's probably not a safe bet to start gloating over a SINGLE POLL, especially when it's f'ing Rasmussen.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, no! McDaniel only up by twelve! TOSS UP!

But you think Corbett has a good chance of winning and he's down 20 in the latest poll, so...?

I never, ever said that so now you're just resorting to flat out lying. Very pathetic.

So you admit Corbett is doomed?

So this was set up as an idiotic gotcha question?  

Here's a piece of knowledge for you: not thinking Corbett is in "good shape" (which you should admit was an outright lie that I ever thought that during this cycle) doesn't necessarily mean one thinks a dramatic comeback is out of the question. Doesn't mean I think that will happen either but your point was that never saying he's in good shape means he's doomed. It doesn't work that work.  

Well, if we're going to play the "act obnoxious over a single poll without considering any other factors" game, then Childers has a higher chance of beating McDaniel AND Cochran than Corbett does of beating Wolf. That was my point.

Besides, literally nobody has ever said it would be a toss up if McDaniel won, per the responses in the other topic you yourself made.

..."literally" nobody said it would be a toss up? Seven people voted "yes" to "Do you really think the Dems would pick up MS if McDaniel is the nominee?"

Learn what literally means, dude.

7 people. Out of 63. Clearly not some widespread attitude that must be countered. I'm sure you could get a few votes for Wyoming being a Dem pickup or Rhode Island being a Republican pickup solely due to joke votes, troll votes, or accidentally clicking the wrong button.

Seven people out of 63 =/= "no one" and one person was strongly arguing the point that it would be a competitive race if you bothered to read the thread that you chose to cite. But I love this justification you're using. "Hey, some people might have accidentally hit that button!"

And this is your convoluted way of excusing your idiotic, false point that I said Corbett had a good chance at winning? You should have just owned up to it and admitted that you wrongly thought I argued something that I didn't. Please. You lost this one. Give it up. Stop digging.

Competitive =/= toss up. A "lean" race would still be competitive. And wow, ONE person? I'm astonished. You can find one person who believes anything. Should we start obnoxiously ranting every time some piece of evidence proves a flat earther wrong?

As for "good chance", that was just poor wording. But you clearly think there's a path to victory for Corbett, despite him trailing Wolf even worse than Childers does against McDaniel AND Cochran (which I'm assuming is a race you consider safe R no matter who is the nominee, judging from your other thread and comments here). By the way, it's probably not a safe bet to start gloating over a SINGLE POLL, especially when it's f'ing Rasmussen.

Keep moving those goal posts! You've gone from saying "literally" no one said MS would be a toss up to saying some people voted for that option accidentally but no one argued the point in the thread to finally saying, "Oh wow. One person did. Big deal." Can you get your argument straight before moving forward? Thanks.

Next you'll equate saying Corbett has a 1% chance of victory to saying he has a "path to victory." Saying I said Corbett had a good chance wasn't "just poor wording" on your part. You fundamentally changed/made up something I've said.

Do you really think a Republican victory, even with a weak incumbent like Corbett, in PA is as realistic as a Dem picking up an MS Senate seat in 2014? You're the one using one poll as a gold standard, dude. You're not taking into account the elasticity of both states. Go ahead and point to other polls when they come out that show Childers closing in. At the end of the day, the chances of him winning in his state given this climate are slim to none. Corbett at least has a more favorable state, incumbency and political climate in his favor.

[free my dawg]

So, is IceSpear picking up where Flyers left off?

[IceSpear]

Do you really think a Republican victory, even with a weak incumbent like Corbett, in PA is as realistic as a Dem picking up an MS Senate seat in 2014? You're the one using one poll as a gold standard, dude. You're not taking into account the elasticity of both states. Go ahead and point to other polls when they come out that show Childers closing in. At the end of the day, the chances of him winning in his state given this climate are slim to none. Corbett at least has a more favorable state, incumbency and political climate in his favor.

I was obviously only using the "one poll as a gold standard" because you were doing the same. Besides, at least Quinnipiac is a decent pollster, unlike Rasmussen.

I'd say both Corbett winning re-election and Childers beating McDaniel have very low odds, probably ~5% for each. Right now, McDaniel is "generic R" and will probably fall a bit more if he actually beat Cochran in the primary and voters started to learn about his neo-Confederate ties, opposition to Katrina aid, etc. etc. He'd still win, but I could see it taking him into single digits.

On the other hand, Corbett is already known (and hated) with an approval rating in the 20s or 30s. His only hope would be if the Democrat becomes more hated, which would be near impossible to achieve barring some type of scandal.

Not that it really matters since both of their chances are pretty negligible, but yes, I'd say Childers has a slightly higher chance of beating McDaniel than Corbett does of beating Wolf.