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Author Topic: NC: SUSA: Rs up slightly in general; Tillis, Brannon lead in primary  (Read 1785 times)
Miles
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« on: April 01, 2014, 06:04:51 pm »

Article.

Tillis- 23%,
Brannon- 15%
Harris 11%
Grant- 6%
Alexander 6%
Unsure- 34%

General election:

Tillis- 46%
Hagan- 45%

Brannon- 47%
Hagan- 45%

Grant- 46%
Hagan- 44%

Alexander- 46%
Hagan- 44%

Harris- 47%
Hagan- 43%
« Last Edit: April 01, 2014, 09:01:58 pm by Miles »Logged
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2014, 06:16:45 pm »

34% unsure? Find that a bit puzzling, but hopefully air wars take care of that.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2014, 07:07:03 pm »

Well, comparing this to the last SUSA poll, its good for Democrats that Tillis has dropped 5 points while Brannon has held steady. Democrats need to be doing whatever they can to mettle in the GOP primary. Having it expended 2.5 months would be a nice luxury for Hagan.

Its guess its also good for Hagan that this was a poll of Likely Voters.

That said, Hagan's approvals on healthcare (29/64) and the economy (36/56) are deeply troubling.

Throughout the matchups, the Republicans lead her by 10-ish points with voters who say the economy is their top issue. With heathcare its close to 2:1 in favor of the Republicans, but Hagan leads by similar margins on education. Thankfully for Hagan, undecideds skew younger and emphasize education.

I'm telling ya'll, I'm really praying that Brannon is nominated...
« Last Edit: April 01, 2014, 07:22:11 pm by Miles »Logged
olowakandi
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« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2014, 08:45:58 pm »

The senate is gonna come down to NC, AK and La. It looks as though survey USA is moving in that direction since they gave us those KY and KS gov polls. Which we have a lesser chance if winning.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2014, 09:48:13 pm »

Numbers like this are not good for Hagan.  Hagan could easily be the Blanche Lincoln of 2014. 
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2014, 09:50:13 pm »

Numbers like this are not good for Hagan.  Hagan could easily be the Blanche Lincoln of 2014. 

Wha?
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Joshgreen
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« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2014, 09:52:13 pm »

Numbers like this are not good for Hagan.  Hagan could easily be the Blanche Lincoln of 2014. 

Work on your analogies, son...
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2014, 09:59:27 pm »

Numbers like this are not good for Hagan.  Hagan could easily be the Blanche Lincoln of 2014. 

Wha?

Democratic woman loses Senate seat in the South somewhat handily.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2014, 10:04:01 pm »

If Hagan loses it would be single digits, probably no more than 5 IMO.
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CosmicDestiny
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« Reply #9 on: April 01, 2014, 10:08:47 pm »

Numbers like this are not good for Hagan.  Hagan could easily be the Blanche Lincoln of 2014. 

Wha?

Democratic woman loses Senate seat in the South somewhat handily.
But Arkansas 2010 =/= North Carolina 2014.

Mark Pryor is most likely the Blanche Lincoln of 2014, and possibly Mary Landrieu in the runoff. 
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #10 on: April 01, 2014, 10:24:29 pm »

Losing a Senate seat by 5-7 points is losing it handily. 
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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: April 01, 2014, 11:26:12 pm »

Losing a Senate seat by 5-7 points is losing it handily.  

But Lincoln lost by 21...

The absolute floor for a Democrat in NC is about 43% (no way Hagan would do anywhere near that low).
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2014, 11:47:50 pm »

Tillis is not going to win. Even against Kay Hagan.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: April 01, 2014, 11:59:49 pm »

Tillis is not going to win. Even against Kay Hagan.

I know that this was a long time ago, but we are referring to the state that elected Jesse Helms to the Senate.

Helms was at least competent at campaigning in the state. Tillis is beyond awful at that.
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Miles
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« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2014, 12:29:50 am »

I don't know... she is pretty close to 43% in polling, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that she will lose to Tills 51%-48%.

Come on Tongue

Thats with 8-10% undecided and the Republicans tying her.

Elaine Marshall was underfunded, running against an incumbent in 2010 and got 43%.
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Miles
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« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2014, 01:23:22 am »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Survey USA on 2014-03-31

Summary: D: 45%, R: 46%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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badgate
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« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2014, 02:56:55 am »

I was recently visiting with a relative who volunteered for Obama in VA. Since that campaign they moved to NC. I asked if she was going to help out Senator Hagen, and she said "probably not." Based on this anecdote, Hagen's seriously failing her base.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2014, 02:58:47 am by badgate »Logged
Miles
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« Reply #17 on: April 02, 2014, 03:45:54 am »


Not to beat a dead horse, but if the 2014 environment ends up like 2010, couldn't Kay Hagan end up in a pretty rough situation like Marshall? I'm still a rookie with reading polls, and I apologize for that, but if Hagan doesn't do well with undecideds, I wouldn't want to be in her shoes when November swings around.

No, because Marshall wasn't the DNC's choice and it abandoned her right after she won the primary. She had to go through a runoff which also drained resources. Finally, Burr was (is) popular in the Triad area, which is swingy (e.g, he was able to carry Guilford County).

Dalton also hit the 43% mark but again, he had everything working against him. He was outspent 3:1 while having to contend with Perdue's unpopularity and an exceptionally strong candidate in McCrory. 

Unlike McCrory or Burr, Tillis really doesn't have a region where he can markedly overperform in the general. He's from Mecklenburg County, but only represents the northern part of (which is already heavily R downballot).

As for the undecideds in this poll, they favor Hagan. They skew younger, female and less wealthy. It seems like it will be more of issue of motivating those voters.

Which brings me to badgate's comment...

Yes, as I've said before, if Hagan wasn't from one of my states, I might not be nearly as enthusiastic as I am about her. She's not the most charismatic candidate.

Still, her campaign is emphasizing all the bread and butter issues, especially education and women's issues. I think Democrats will eventually come home to her because 1) the NCGA will be back in session next month 2) the Moral Mondays that go with that will motivate the base and 3) her campaign hasn't really kicked into gear in terms of ads and messaging. 
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Miles
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« Reply #18 on: April 02, 2014, 10:06:28 am »

^ Good; hopefully I've convinced you somewhat.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #19 on: April 02, 2014, 10:13:21 am »

It is no question that IA, MI, NH and NC are the tipping pt states, purple states prez. That gets us to 49, then we can get that 50th seat from a group of states: ME,AK,KY,LA, or GA.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2014, 10:15:51 am by OC »Logged
SWE
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« Reply #20 on: April 02, 2014, 01:38:35 pm »

It is no question that IA, MI, NH and NC are the tipping pt states, purple states prez. That gets us to 49, then we can get that 50th seat from a group of states: ME,AK,KY,LA, or GA.
Huh
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