Democratic Presidential Primaries in Southern States

[⛄]

Did John Wolfe win one or even two congressional districts?
And why didn't he receive any delegates?

Candidate       Obama    Wolfe

Delegates        47           0

Popular vote    94,936    67,711

Percentage      58.37%  41.63%

Blue: Obama
Purple: Wolfe

[BaconBacon96]

He didn't receive delegates because he didn't do the proper filing in which he was supposed to name his delegates, apparently.

[⛄]

He didn't receive delegates because he didn't do the proper filing in which he was supposed to name his delegates, apparently.

Don't you think it was a plot by the party executive?

[BaconBacon96]

He didn't receive delegates because he didn't do the proper filing in which he was supposed to name his delegates, apparently.

Don't you think it was a plot by the party executive?
[/quote
I'm inclined to think that, yes. Particularly as it happened to Keith Russell Judd in West Virginia as well.

[⛄]

I'm inclined to think that, yes. Particularly as it happened to Keith Russell Judd in West Virginia as well.

Okay, but it's quite reasonable to not allocate delegates to an inmate.

Do you think that Wolfe won a district?

[Nichlemn]

Doesn't look like Wolfe won a district. I don't know the relative votes of the counties, but the fact the counties appear to be fairly evenly mixed throughout the state, combined with Obama's reasonably high percentage margin statewide, makes it unlikely. I think AR-04 was probably closest.

[⛄]

Doesn't look like Wolfe won a district. I don't know the relative votes of the counties, but the fact the counties appear to be fairly evenly mixed throughout the state, combined with Obama's reasonably high percentage margin statewide, makes it unlikely. I think AR-04 was probably closest.

Oooooh, he did...
I've found a site that provides the data for congressional districts:



1st CD:  50.68% for Wolfe
2nd CD: 77.09% for Obama
3rd CD:  78.50% for Obama
4th CD:  50.58% for Obama

It seems like AR-01 was the only congressional district nation-wide that Obama lost against a real person.

[Nichlemn]

Doesn't look like Wolfe won a district. I don't know the relative votes of the counties, but the fact the counties appear to be fairly evenly mixed throughout the state, combined with Obama's reasonably high percentage margin statewide, makes it unlikely. I think AR-04 was probably closest.

Oooooh, he did...
I've found a site that provides the data for congressional districts:



1st CD:  50.68% for Wolfe
2nd CD: 77.09% for Obama
3rd CD:  78.50% for Obama
4th CD:  50.58% for Obama

It seems like AR-01 was the only congressional district nation-wide that he didn't win during the primary season.

Wow, that's a lot more heterogeneous than I thought.

[Sol]

Doesn't look like Wolfe won a district. I don't know the relative votes of the counties, but the fact the counties appear to be fairly evenly mixed throughout the state, combined with Obama's reasonably high percentage margin statewide, makes it unlikely. I think AR-04 was probably closest.

Oooooh, he did...
I've found a site that provides the data for congressional districts:



1st CD:  50.68% for Wolfe
2nd CD: 77.09% for Obama
3rd CD:  78.50% for Obama
4th CD:  50.58% for Obama

It seems like AR-01 was the only congressional district nation-wide that he didn't win during the primary season.

Anything in KY or WV?

[⛄]

A candidate called "uncommitted" seemed to have campaigned very hard in Appalachia...



1st CD: 55.60% uncommitted
2nd CD: 52.12% for Obama
3rd CD: 81.50% for Obama
4th CD: 55.49% for Obama
5th CD: 60.35% uncommitted
6th CD: 58.78% for Obama

[Miles]

I wonder how close Obama came to losing WV-03.

[Miles]

Crunching WV from the SOS site. Obamas %:

CD1- 61.2%
CD2: 64.8%
CD3: 53.6%

[⛄]

I wonder how close Obama came to losing WV-03.

Let me do the calculating for you:


           Obama    Judd
WV-01: 61.21%   38.79%
WV-02: 64.80%   35.20%
WV-03: 53.60%   46.40%

Best county for Obama:        Jefferson (77.68%)
Best county for Judd:           Mingo (60.24%)
Narrowest county for Obama: Mercer (50.26%)
Narrowest county for Judd:    Boone (51.58%)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Doesn't look like Wolfe won a district. I don't know the relative votes of the counties, but the fact the counties appear to be fairly evenly mixed throughout the state, combined with Obama's reasonably high percentage margin statewide, makes it unlikely. I think AR-04 was probably closest.

Oooooh, he did...
I've found a site that provides the data for congressional districts:



1st CD:  50.68% for Wolfe
2nd CD: 77.09% for Obama
3rd CD:  78.50% for Obama
4th CD:  50.58% for Obama

It seems like AR-01 was the only congressional district nation-wide that Obama lost against a real person.

That's surprising. I would have thought at least one of either the 1st or the 4th would have blacks as a large enough proportion of the Democratic primary electorate to give Obama a clear victory.

[⛄]

That's surprising. I would have thought at least one of either the 1st or the 4th would have blacks as a large enough proportion of the Democratic primary electorate to give Obama a clear victory.

On the face of it, those both results may seem strange.
However, if you figure out that the African American strongholds lie only in the Southern halves of either congressional district and that the Southern Arkansas counties are only sparsely peopled, the results become more plausible. Furthermore, there are only six counties which are majority black.

[Flake]

Could you calculate Oklahoma?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

A candidate called "uncommitted" seemed to have campaigned very hard in Appalachia...

I now at least one person who voted for that candidate, in the northern district (4).

Anyway, wasn't there a lot of opposition to Obama is Oklahoma?

[⛄]

           Obama    Terry      Rogers
OK-01   71.79%   13.81%    6.91%
OK-02   42.20%   25.43%   18.63%
OK-03   47.63%   22.07%   16.40%
OK-04   53.19%   17.23%   16.68%
OK-05   77.89%     8.33%    7.81%

[⛄]

That's surprising. I would have thought at least one of either the 1st or the 4th would have blacks as a large enough proportion of the Democratic primary electorate to give Obama a clear victory.

Here's the county map with the different color shapes.

Obama's best county:       Wolfe's best county: Obama's narrowest county: Wolfe's narrowest county:

Pulaski (86.19%) Sevier (75.36%) Woodruff (50.72%) Logan (51.23%)

[Nichlemn]

Kind of amazing that there's a county in the US where over 3/4 of the Democratic primary voters voted against Obama. I'm curious to know what its recent electoral history was like.

Sevier County

2012: 72% Romney, 24% Obama
2008 - 68% McCain, 28% Obama
2004 - 54% Bush, 44% Kerry
2000 - 49% Bush, 49% Gore

As expected, a large R->D swing, but honestly somewhat less than I thought. I thought Gore would have comfortably won in a place like that.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

That's surprising. I would have thought at least one of either the 1st or the 4th would have blacks as a large enough proportion of the Democratic primary electorate to give Obama a clear victory.

On the face of it, those both results may seem strange.
However, if you figure out that the African American strongholds lie only in the Southern halves of either congressional district and that the Southern Arkansas counties are only sparsely peopled, the results become more plausible. Furthermore, there are only six counties which are majority black.

When you consider that someplace like Dallas Co has a black pop >40%, it just shows how many of the whites, who voted not just for McCain and Romney but also for Bush by what looks like 3-1 in 2004, are still voting in the Democratic primaries.  The combed strength of Democrats both black and white draw even more people to the D primaries because that's where the action is. In the Northwest, the Republicans are stronger so I suppose those voting in the D primary are more likely to identify with the national party.

Thanks for the maps.

[Flake]

Alabama?

[⛄]

Obama:

AL-01: 81.11%
AL-02: 89.22%
AL-03: 88.03%
AL-04: 56.77%
AL-05: 67.84%
AL-06: 95.45%
AL-07: 89.40%

I find it a bit astonishing that Obama performed in the 5th CD better than in the 4th CD.

[⛄]

Louisiana used the district lines from the last decade to allocate the primary delegates:

district LA-01: LA-02: LA-03: LA-04: LA-05: LA-06: LA-07: State:

Obama 62.30% 94.73% 62.88% 77.67% 76.44% 80.34% 60.41% 76.94%

Wolfe 19.62% 2.46% 17.24% 11.90% 11.48% 9.77% 22.04% 11.66%

Ely 10.76% 1.59% 10.75% 5.94% 6.97% 5.43% 9.44% 6.38%

Richardson 7.32% 1.22% 9.13% 4.50% 5.11% 4.47% 8.11% 5.02%

[Miles]

I find it a bit astonishing that Obama performed in the 5th CD better than in the 4th CD.

Why? CD5 is more educated and less rural.