Match-Ups for the 2016 Republican Primary

[Mister Mets]

Republican primaries are often remembered as conflicts between two figures.

In 1952, it was Eisnehower VS Taft. In 1960, it was Nixon VS Rockefeller. In 1964, it was Rockefeller VS Goldwater. In 1968, it was Nixon VS Reagan (who beat him in the primary vote.) In 1976, it was Ford VS Reagan. In 1980, it was Reagan VS Bush. In 1988, it was Bush VS Dole. In 1996, it was Dole VS Buchanan. It was 2000, it was McCain VS Bush. In 2008, it was McCain VS Romney. In 2012, Santorum was the best of the anti-Romneys.

In that vein, who are the likely finalists? Who is the 2016 nomination likely to come down to?

I will say at the moment that a choice between Jeb Bush and Rand Paul seems pretty stark.

Bonus Question- What would be interesting match-ups, even if you don't think it's particularly likely.

[IceSpear]

Paul vs. Jeb
Paul vs. Walker
Paul vs. Christie

[bballrox4717]

Almost definitely Paul vs Bush (assuming he runs). They're the only two Republicans really capable of putting together a national campaign structure.

If Bush doesn't run, I expect it to turn into a 3 way race between the establishment figure, an evangelical candidate like Huckabee that catches fire, and Paul.

The real trick behind beating Paul is to find an establishment figure that the evangelical right likes. I guess that's why they want Bush even with his current baggage; the Bushes still have major credibility with them from W's presidency.

[Mister Mets]

Paul vs. Jeb
Paul vs. Walker
Paul vs. Christie

Looking at the contrasts...

Jeb VS Paul:
Security state VS Civil Liberties
Compassionate Conservative VS Small Government
Establishment VS Outsider
Elder Statesman VS Newcomer (Paul's political career began after Bush's tenure as Governor ended.

Christie VS. Paul:
Accomplishment VS Vision
Bipartisanship VS Ideological Purity
Bush Appointee VS Ron Paul's son
Ruthlessness VS Morals

Walker VS Paul:
Accomplishment VS Vision
Political Expertise VS Outsider (Scott Walker has been in elected office since he was 26.)
A career exclusively in Wisconsin VS A career in DC
Firm opposition to Democrats VS Outreach

Almost definitely Paul vs Bush (assuming he runs). They're the only two Republicans really capable of putting together a national campaign structure.

If Bush doesn't run, I expect it to turn into a 3 way race between the establishment figure, an evangelical candidate like Huckabee that catches fire, and Paul.

The real trick behind beating Paul is to find an establishment figure that the evangelical right likes. I guess that's why they want Bush even with his current baggage; the Bushes still have major credibility with them from W's presidency.

If Jeb Bush and Rand Paul run, there may be an opening for someone who is in the party's mainstream but lacks the baggage of Jeb Bush's name. They might also make an anti-dynasty argument since Rand Paul's dad also ran for President. I doubt there would be a three way race for long, since the tendency in Republican presidential primaries when one of the top candidates is for another to take that place (Giuliani's fall helped McCain in 2008, the succession of anti-Romneys in 2012.)

[Potatoe]

Paul v. Cruz
Cruz v. Christie
Jindal v. Cruz
Rubio v. Paul

[MurrayBannerman]

Walker v Paul

Rubio v Paul

Bush v Walker

[BaconBacon96]

Bush vs. Paul

Walker vs. Paul

Bush vs. Walker

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Walker VS Paul.

[Randy Bobandy]

Christie vs. Paul

Bush vs. Paul

Bush vs. Christie

[Mister Mets]

The race could come down to Bush vs. Christie or Bush vs. Walker, but those don't seem to have a strong contrast beyond maybe temperament.

Almost definitely Paul vs Bush (assuming he runs). They're the only two Republicans really capable of putting together a national campaign structure.

If Bush doesn't run, I expect it to turn into a 3 way race between the establishment figure, an evangelical candidate like Huckabee that catches fire, and Paul.

The real trick behind beating Paul is to find an establishment figure that the evangelical right likes. I guess that's why they want Bush even with his current baggage; the Bushes still have major credibility with them from W's presidency.

Huckabee vs. Paul would likely be the starkest choice.

[Suburbia]

Walker vs. Paul
Walker vs. Bush
Bush vs. Paul
Thune vs. Paul
Thune vs. Jindal

[ShadowRocket]

Paul vs. Jeb
Paul vs. Walker
Paul vs. Christie

I agree with this. Though I can see an Evangelical-backed candidate like Santorum being somewhat of a factor.