Canada 2000: Alliance minority?

[RogueBeaver]

They touched 30% at one point in the polls but were knocked down by a Grit blitzkrieg on healthcare and multiple gaffes. Could a better-disciplined Alliance have cracked Fortress Ontario, or at least reduced Chrétien to a minority?

[DC Al Fine]

I think that an Alliance government would be pretty unrealistic. A Liberal minority yes, but not an Alliance one. You'd need something more than Liberals swinging Alliance to have a right wing government. I'd need at least 2/3 of the following to happen:

1) A resurgent NDP counteracts the effects of right wing vote splits.
2) A strong Bloc result keeping Liberal numbers in Quebec down.
3) The total collapse of the PC's.
 
1 & 3 have their own problems as well. A resurgent NDP would depress the Alliance seat count in the West, and a PC collapse would mean more Liberal seats in Atlantic Canada. I just can't see enough happening for the Alliance to form government.

[RogueBeaver]

That's what I thought.

[King of Kensington]

At 30%, I think the Alliance would have done as well in Ontario as the Conservatives in 2004.  And a seat in New Brunswick (Tobique-Mactaquac).  No way they could have gotten a minority government.