ALG - Pryor up 3

[Donerail]

Here.

It's commissioned by the DSCC and doesn't have crosstabs, but Pryor 48% - Cotton 45%, with a 4% MoE. Basically backs up the Talk Business one.

[windjammer]

Pryor is going Blanche- SAFE REP

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Why exactly is Pryor rebounding? I haven't seen anything come out of Arkansas that suggests that the climate shifted.

[RogueBeaver]

DSCC poll, nuff said. Also what CD said.

[SPC]

Why exactly is Pryor rebounding? I haven't seen anything come out of Arkansas that suggests that the climate shifted.

Assuming that Nate Silver is correct about internal polls giving a 6 point bias to the party of interest, then Cotton should be up about 3 points, which when averaged with the Talk Business Poll gives a tie. Looking at the polls that have shown Cotton ahead, all of them have been either Republican firms or Rasmussen (or do I repeat myself), so I would question whether Pryor has actually rebounded or if Republican-slanted polls were accepted prima facie due to confirmation bias of preexisting notions of Cotton's inevitability.

[MalaspinaGold]

I would argue that better news on the healthcare front might be helping Pryor a little

[windjammer]

This is the third poll that shows Pryor in the lead. I wouldn't say he's flawed, especially because this is the slimest lead!

[publicunofficial]

This is the third poll that shows Pryor in the lead. I wouldn't say he's flawed, especially because this is the slimest lead!

4th, actually

[RogueBeaver]

3 of which are Dem.

[windjammer]

3 of which are Dem.

Yes, but Talk Business is a good pollster isn't it?

Seriously, I understand that the poll showing Pryor with a 10 point lead is flawed, but I seriously believe Pryor is leading by 3 right now.

[RogueBeaver]

Yes - that's why I said 3 of 4.

[DrScholl]

In a competitive race, it's highly unlikely the DSCC would put out misleading polling, they can't really afford to use numbers that are overly favorable to Pryor, that wouldn't do him much good.

Cotton asking for five debates with no moderate is proof that the race is slipping away from him, as is the fact the NRSC hasn't released any internal polling as a counter, all they released was a blog claiming bias.

[LeBron]

This is the third poll that shows Pryor in the lead. I wouldn't say he's flawed, especially because this is the slimest lead!

4th, actually

One of the polls was way too D favoring though (Pryor +10) and the other (Hickman) oversampled LaFrance's/Swaney's numbers in this race, so I wouldn't say Pryor's out of the grave yet and still can't call it anything else yet then tilt R.

I still think this will go right back to lean R in the next few weeks. Cotton has so much support from all of the special interests and Americans for Prosperity while Pryor is busy making gaffes giving this chance for new ads that are currently being whipped up by anti-Obamacare groups. There's no way he loses by the Blanche Lincoln margin (Pryor is worse, but Boozman was a much better and non-controversial Republican candidate), but I still think he'll find a way to self-destruct to Cotton's benefit. Even then if he didn't, AR (aside from the less polar Gov race) is just not winnable anymore for Dems even those who use this "traditional values" strategy.