1968

[JohnFKennedy]

What if, in 1968, George Wallace had almost swept the South, picking up the states he did (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia) along with South Carolina, North Carolina and Tennessee?

Would we have seen a major third party emerge?

[JohnFKennedy]

In other words, if this happened:



Nixon 270
Humphrey 191
Wallace 77

[Michael Z]

I don't see how a few states could have made such a huge difference. Sure, Wallace would have picked up the whole South, but does that really mean anything?

[JohnFKennedy]

I don't see how a few states could have made such a huge difference. Sure, Wallace would have picked up the whole South, but does that really mean anything?

Just curious on people's views. If he had done so well I think things may have been different.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

What if, in 1968, George Wallace had almost swept the South, picking up the states he did (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia) along with South Carolina, North Carolina and Tennessee?

Would we have seen a major third party emerge?

No.  In 1968-72 Nixon would have pursued the Southern Strategy on Steroids, setting back Civil Rights about 10 years.  Moderate northern (Rockefeller) Repubicans would become alienated and jump the aisle to the Democrats.  The Republicans are further undermined by Vietnam and Watergate.

Rockefeller/Mondale win in 76, carrying the entire country except for the South.  Mondale becomes President in 1979 when Rockefeller dies.  High taxes and inflation wear down on the American people, and Reagan is able to bring Western Republicans back into the fold in 1980.  He wins, and history resumes its normal course.

[Ben.]

If you have a one term Nixon presidency... I don’t see a Rockefeller/ Mondale ticket... even if many of the moderate republicans "jump ship" after a radical Nixon term... more likely is that the short-term polices that Nixon introduced to give an artificial boost to the economy (tariffs and what not, which where soon abandoned) are not introduced at all, then have a solid and electable candidate selected by the Democrats... so a better Muskie campaign and a poorer economy (both not much of a leap) so you then have Edmund Muskie (With a southern Vp, perhaps Carter or Long (ah that would be sweet!) or Al Gore senior maybe even James Eastland or Lloyd Bentsen, then again Bentsen only got elected in 1970 but he had been in the house before he was in the senate )…

So Muskie vs. Nixon and a Muskie win… then in 1976 you probably have Muskie vs. Reagan (the GOP grassroots are really going to be ticked off about losing in 72 and a moderate really wont get a look-in at the GOP nomination imho)… Reagan vs. Muskie would be a very close contest but in the end who ever won would be taking a poisoned chalice as the economic and international problems facing any administration in the late 1970’s would very hard to survive especially with hostile congress (and even Carter didn’t get on with the Democratic dominated congress) for Reagan there would be massive gridlock between the executive and the legislature… and by 1980 a moderate democratic challenger would come along so someone like John Glenn, Lloyd Bentsen or Hugh Carey… imho the most likely Democratic ticket would be Bentsen/ Glenn… even with legislative gridlock and a declining economy Reagan would be a far more competitive candidate than Carter was in 1980 (despite the likelihood of someone like John Anderson having challenged him in the primaries) but in the end Bentsen/ Glenn would beat Reagan/ Schweiker (who was the moderate PA senator who Reagan tagged in 1976 to be his running-mate had he won the nomination against Ford)…

So in that scenario you then have the bizarre situation of a line of presidents as follows… Johnson/ Humphries, Nixon/ Agnew, Muskie/ Long, Reagan/ Schweiker… no two term president since Ike… however the moderate Bentsen now has a good opportunity to turn this around… now that would have been interesting…


Alternatively had Humphrey beaten Nixon… He would probably have faced Reagan in 1972, and despite a much tougher fight than Nixon faced in 1972, I reckon that in 1972 Humphrey would have eventually won out… and then in 1976 Muskie would almost certainly run and probably beat Dole (who would be a likely GOP candidate).. however as with Carter he would probably have faced a collapsing economy and a deteriorating international situation and rather than a challenge from the left (as Carter did from Kennedy) Muskie could have faced an equally tough fight from someone like Henry “Scoop” Jackson… and then would probably have gone on to faced Bush in 1980 and most likely have lost… But hey I can’t take the credit for this Humphrey/ Muskie Timeline here’s the link… http://spiritualist.alternatehistory.com/hhh01.html however the above outline of a succession of one term presidents is my own…                

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If you have a one term Nixon presidency... I don’t see a Rockefeller/ Mondale ticket... even if many of the moderate republicans "jump ship" after a radical Nixon term...

Well, this is assuming the Southern Strategy on Steriods works, and Nixon wins in 72.  Since he absolutely clobbered McGovern in our timeline, I would think he could still get enough of the Midwest and West to win in this What If.

Of course, McGovern could have won as well.  What could we expect from a McGovern administration?

[Ben.]

Of course, McGovern could have won as well.  What could we expect from a McGovern administration?

Shudder...

I respect McGovern, but he would have made a lousy Prez...


Beef what did you think of the LBJ/Humphrey, Nixon/Agnew. Muskie/Long, Reagan/ Schweirker, Bentsen/ Glenn... Timeline, quite proud of that myself...    

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Beef what did you think of the LBJ/Humphrey, Nixon/Agnew. Muskie/Long, Reagan/ Schweirker, Bentsen/ Glenn... Timeline, quite proud of that myself...    

Looks good!

I think Muskie would have been a one-termer.  He would have used the oil embargo to push his environmental agenda, and his refusal to allow Congress to run a deficit would have made the economic situation much worse.

Reagan would have painted him as a high-taxing, over-regulating, big-government liberal, and he would have won in a landslide in 1976.  Reagan would also be riding the coattails of the Sagebrush Rebellion.

To be perfectly frank, love or hate the man, you have to admit Reagan would have kicked ass in the late 70s.  Look at films of President Carter, and you see a deer caught in the headlights.  Carter (who I think is a wonderful man) didn't have the leadership skills necessary to get us through a very tough time.  Reagan did.  Reagan would have won reelection easily in 1980.  Assuming he doesn't start WWIII with Iran and the USSR .

[© tweed]

In other words, if this happened:



Nixon 270
Humphrey 191
Wallace 77

I don't think it would have made much of a difference.