Indian Politics and Political Parties - General Discussion

[jaichind]

In the aftermath of 1980 there was no real organized opposition to INC.  By 1983 as INC started to stumble the opposition started to stir.  In AP a new regional party TDP came out of nowhere to capture power from INC with support from BJP on the right and CPI/CPM/Jananta on the Left.  In Karnataka, old INC(U) supported merged into Janata Party which also formed a grand Right-Left alliance with BJP on the Right and CPI/CPM on the Left to defeat INC.

In 1984 due to the sympathy wave for INC due to Indira Gandhi's assasination there was no real opposition to INC landslide.  There are regional opposition to INC.  BJP was trying to grow into a center-right national opposition to INC.  It had strength in MP (old BJS bastion), HP (old BJS bastion), Delhi (old BJS bastion) Rajasthan (due to Swatantra) and pockets of support across Northern India.   TDP opposed INC in AP, LD took on INC in UP, Haryana, and Bihar.  Left Front took on INC in WB and Kerela, INC(S) took on INC on Maharashtra, and Janata took on INC in Gujarat and Karnataka.  It was no avail as INC swept all before it in 1984.

But what took place in 1983 where there were successful Left-Right alliances to defeat INC left a mark.  As Rajeev Gandhi stumbled in 1987 the anti-INC coalition reformed.  First VP Singh of INC split to create Jan Morcha (JM).  Then JM mereged with Janata, LD and what remains of INC(S) into Janata Dal to take on INC.  What JD did was quite cleaver.  It know that Left Front and BJP cannot coexist, especially as the Ram Temple movement was starting up and BJP had polar opposite positions relative to Left Front on this issue.  What JD did was to work out deals with BJP so neither party will compete with each other in 1989.  It made the same deal with Left Front.  So BJP and Left Front could end up competing with each other but on the whole the anti-INC block was making tactical alliances with each other.  This worked in 1989 even as INC won the most votes by far, they were stopped short of a majority.  With outside support from Left Front and BJP, a JD minority government came into power in 1989.

[jaichind]

After 1989 elections and a JD government is in place, tensions begin again.  BJP is growing in power with the Ram Temple movement, so VP Singh tries to check this with a push for higher quotas for OBCs in education and civil service.  This threatens the BJP strategy of Hindu consolidation and turns Upper Caste voters against JD and into the lap of BJP.  JD then splits on Left-Right lines with a Left wing SJP led by Chandra Shekar splitting out of JD on the premise that JD was too weak on BJP.  Just like in 1979 INC promises support for a SJP government only to withdraw it leading to 1991 elections.  LD also splits from JD which later becomes INLD which is a force in Haryana.

The 1991 elections starts with both JD, SJP, INC losing ground to BJP in the first couple rounds but the assassination of Rajeev Gandhi turns the tide in the later rounds as the sympathy vote moves to INC.  Had Rajeev Gandhi not been assassinated I suspect 1991 election results will be very similar to 1996 and we could have seen a BJP minority government.  As it is INC manages to come close to a majority and forms a government.

After the 1991 elections SP splits from SJP in 1992 which pretty much means the end of SJP is a political force.  JD continues to be a political force although diminished from the split of SJP.  JD(G) also split from JD in the 1991 elections and then merges with INC.  JP in a much smaller form continued to exist but is a non factor in politics.

In 1993 Bihar Peoples Party (BPSP) was formed as a small Bihar splinter of JD as a party of lower castes and in turn was not aligned.  In 1994 Samata Party which is mostly based in Bihar split from JD and forms an alliance with BJP.  Also the Ajit Singh, son of Charan Singh, led the proto-RLD and merged it with INC after the 1991 elections.  

[Famous Mortimer]

It doesn't even look like the SJP ran in the 1991 elections, which is weird since they were kind of the ruling party.

Several sources say Chandra Shekhar, again, the incumbent PM, ran for re-election to parliament as a member of the Janata PARTY.

In 1996 he was apparently a member of the Samata Party.

It wasn't until the 1998 that he ran under the Samajwadi Janata Party (Rashtriya) banner.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, I don't think Jagjivan Ram was still with Janata in 1980. I'm pretty sure he had his own Congress splinter group at that point.

I know Indian parties often don't officially have PM candidates, and I wouldn't be surprised if JP didn't in 1980, but they must have at least had a public face.

[jaichind]

It doesn't even look like the SJP ran in the 1991 elections, which is weird since they were kind of the ruling party.

Several sources say Chandra Shekhar, again, the incumbent PM, ran for re-election to parliament as a member of the Janata PARTY.

In 1996 he was apparently a member of the Samata Party.

It wasn't until the 1998 that he ran under the Samajwadi Janata Party (Rashtriya) banner.

SJP did run in 1991 but ran under the Janata Party symbol.  SJP was too new and was not a "national party" so they ran under Janata Party symbol since JP was still considered a national party.  Kind of the same as Janata running under BKD in 1977.

As for  Chandra Shekhar he was PSP and then joined INC.  But he ran afoul of Indira Gandhi and joined Janata Party.  He was with SJP since.  I do no think he ran under Samanta in 1996.  He would not join a party allied with BJP since that was the reason he split with JD.

[jaichind]

Also, I don't think Jagjivan Ram was still with Janata in 1980. I'm pretty sure he had his own Congress splinter group at that point.

I know Indian parties often don't officially have PM candidates, and I wouldn't be surprised if JP didn't in 1980, but they must have at least had a public face.

Ram did lead Janata Party in 1980.  I think my narrative did miss something that led you to believe what you believe.  After the defeat of Ram-led Janata he split with Janata and created INC(J).  I believe that Ram re-joined INC before his death in 1986 but I am not sure about that.  For sure his  daughter later became a leader in INC and ran in the 1984 elections as an INC candidate.

[Famous Mortimer]

It did seem weird but I'm just finding several sources that list Chandra Shekhar's 1996 affiliated as "SAP." I've so far been unable to find any other parties that could have that acronym besides Samata or Samajwadi. I suppose it could just be a mistake that spread across the internet though.

On the other hand, didn't Shekhar stick with the Janata Party in 1980 despite it being the more right-wing of the two Janata factions? Also Fernandes was Janata Secretary General during the 80s when I'm pretty sure Shekhar was Janata leader. So maybe there were just close personally.

[jaichind]

It did seem weird but I'm just finding several sources that list Chandra Shekhar's 1996 affiliated as "SAP." I've so far been unable to find any other parties that could have that acronym besides Samata or Samajwadi. I suppose it could just be a mistake that spread across the internet though.

On the other hand, didn't Shekhar stick with the Janata Party in 1980 despite it being the more right-wing of the two Janata factions? Also Fernandes was Janata Secretary General during the 80s when I'm pretty sure Shekhar was Janata leader. So maybe there were just close personally.

I think what it could be is that  Chandra Shekhar's SJP did not have national party status it was not as easy for SJP to run UP so he made a deal with Samanta where SJP in UP ran as Samanta.  I know that  Levi Lal's proto-INLD make the same deal with Samanta in 1996 to do the same in Haryana.  This deal did not affect the fact that SJP will not ally with BJP since he is just borrowing a party symbol in a state that Samanta does not plan to contest in anyway.

[jaichind]

In 1996 elections JD vote share and seat share fell further from 1991 mostly as result of losing a lot of its Bihar unit to Samata Party which was allied with BJP as well as attrition of support.  SP did well and a Third Front government which contained JD SP and other was installed with INC outside support to stop the BJP from forming a government.  This actually moved the political center toward BJP as many saw this deal as unfair and robbed the BJP of its right to form the government as the head of the largest front.  

The United Front government was rocked by intra-bloc rivalries as well as sniping from INC.  As BJP became a second pole in addition to INC in Indian politics, JD faced polarization. First in Bihar a significant part of JD under Lalu Yadav split to form RJD in 1997.  RJD was anti-BJP and aligned with INC as well as SP depending on which day it was.   LS also split from JD when a significant bloc of the JD support in Karnataka in 1997 and formed an alliance with BJP.

Eventually INC withdraw support to United Front and elections were called for early 1998.  In Orissa BJD was split from JD and allied itself with BJP.

The 1998 elections began with INC falling apart and NDA looking like it will capture a majority on its own. When Sonia Gandhi decided to come in to active politics the tide turned and UPA was able to hold its own as the Third Front lost ground and NDA was stopped short of a majority.  JD support collapsed due to the various defections over last year.  A NDA government was formed with outside support from TDP who also defected from Third Front after the elections.  Also, after the 1998 elections RLD split from INC which its base with Jats in Western UP.

[jaichind]

The NDA government lasted only one year before the defection of the AIADMK brought down the government and forced the 1999 elections.  The sense of injustice of how the NDA government was brought down started the 1999 elections with many seeing the NDA as having the advantage.  The bipolar nature of Indian politics with NDA vs UPA forced many in JD to pick sides.  JD ended up splitting into JD(U) and JD(S) with JD(U) (mostly based in Bihar and somewhat in Karnataka) aligned with NDA to try to cash in on the NDA wave and JD(S) (based in Karnataka) taking an equidistant position between NDA and UPA although with a subtle pro-UPA bias.  RLD ended up forming an alliance with INC as well as RJD.  JD(U), INLD, Samanta Party, BJD, BPSP, and LS allied with BJP.

The 1999 elections saw NDA winning a majority and UPA losing ground in terms of seats although UPA gained vote share as part of the NDA-UPA polarization.  

[jaichind]

After the 1999 election we had a stable 5 years of NDA government.  LS, Samanta and JD(U) all merged into JD(U).  One of the reasons for that is to increase the JD(U) leverage over BJP within the NDA.  Then in 2000 LJP (based in Bihar) splitting from JD(U) indicating that the lower of the OBCs were not being respected in JD(U) but stayed in NDA.  Then came the Gujarat riots of 2002 and in protest LJP left NDA and aligning with INC and RJD.

The 2004 election started with NDA with a massive lead, but good alliance strategies by INC which included roping in RJD and LJP led to a surprise plurality for the UPA.  RLD allied with SP and both did well in UP.  Also in Haryana INLD broke with BJP and divided both were defeated by INC.  What was left of JP under pro-BJP Subramanian Swamy also allied with BJP in 2004 but with very little impact as JP was without any real political influence.

After 2004 and with a UPA government in place, there was a slow falling out between INC and RJD and LJP over the Bihar Assembly elections of 2005.  As a result in 2009 elections RJD and LJP ran as a Fourth Front along with SP which was pro-UPA but ran separately from UPA.  In Orissa BJD broke with BJP and joined Third Front.  In Karnataka due to a hung assembly JD(S) first formed an alliance with INC and then BJP with both alliances falling apart.  In 2009 BJP and INLD was able to reform their alliance in Haryana and was able to form an alliance with RLD.  In 2009 elections UPA won with a greater plurality and came close to an absolute majority and was a 1998 with UPA and NDA having their roles reversed.  Although in Bihar BJP-JD(U) crushed INC and RJD/LJP whom fought separately and paid for this split. 

For 2014, RLD is with UPA as well as RJD.  JD(U) broke with BJP and LJP in a total surprise joined NDA as LJP felt that it was losing out in alliance talks with INC and RJD.   JD(S) will fight by itself in Karnataka against BJP and INC, in Haryana INLD will fight separately against INC and BJP, and in Orissa BJD will fight separately against INC and BJP.

[Famous Mortimer]

Subramanian Swamy (the last leader of the Janata Party) is an interesting guy.

The last time the Janata Party had a seat in parliament was him in 1998. He won from a district in Tamil Nadu. His platform was that he didn't believe in the Aryan-Dravidian divide and he opposed the Tamil Tigers.

[jaichind]

Subramanian Swamy (the last leader of the Janata Party) is an interesting guy.

The last time the Janata Party had a seat in parliament was him in 1998. He won from a district in Tamil Nadu. His platform was that he didn't believe in the Aryan-Dravidian divide and he opposed the Tamil Tigers.

Well, Subramanian Swamy is a Tamil Brahmin so he is obviously opposed to the Dravidian narrative style of politics. He was in the BJP for a while and then manage to get himself to become the head of the defunct Janata Party.  He is mostly pro-AIADMK (Jayalalitha herself is a Tamil Brahmin) and pro-BJP but between the two he is closer to Jayalalitha.  He merged JP into BJP mostly because he cannot join a party with the word DMK in it.  He is most famous for making various attacks on the Gandhi family, especially Sonia Gandhi.  His claims about the Gandhi clan are

1) Sonia Gandhi faked her Oxford degree
2) Sonia Gandhi who is Italian is most likely a bastard child of a German soldier as she was born   when her father was away and her town under German occupation in WWII.
3) Gandhi clan is involved in massive corruption
4) Rahul Gandhi is a rapist and obsessive gambler
5) Sonia Gandhi never got Indian citizenship should not be allowed to be MP

[Famous Mortimer]

Just a couple more questions and then I'll know everything about India.

1) What was the difference between the Praja Socialist Party and the Samyukta Socialist Party?

2) What role did the division between Gandhian socialists and Nehruvian socialists play in party politics?

3) Can you give a breakdown of castes by region? Or are they all evenly distributed? I was under the impression northern India had more upper caste people but I guess I was just misunderstanding/conflating with the Aryan/Dravidian hypothesis.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

3) Can you give a breakdown of castes by region? Or are they all evenly distributed? I was under the impression northern India had more upper caste people but I guess I was just misunderstanding/conflating with the Aryan/Dravidian hypothesis.

There are some state figures here though I'm not entirely sure on the accuracy.

[jaichind]

Praja Socialist Party means Peoples Socialist Party and  Samyukta Socialist Party means United Socialist Party.

PSP was formed in 1952 when CSP merged with KMPP.  In 1955 Lohia split from PSP to form Socialist Party (SP).  Then in 1962 SP and PSP mereged into SSP.  And in 1964 the party of SSP that was PSP split from SSP to re-form PSP only to reunited with SSP into the Socialist Party in 1972. 

During the period of split, 1955-1972, the main difference between the two are that the PSP was more representing landed peasants while SSP was more or an urban union based movement.  Also under Lohia SSP saw INC as the main enemy and was not adverse to form alliances with CPI and BJS to defeat INC. 

[jaichind]

As for Gandhian socialists vs Nehruvian socialists, after the death of Gandhi, Nehru's brand of Fabian socialism dominated the INC even though members of INC would mouth the propaganda of  Gandhian socialism.  Opposition of INC have used this against INC over the years.  The mastermind of the Jananta Party of 1977, Jayaprakash Narayan, was a follower and believer of  Gandhian socialism.  Jayaprakash Narayan was in INC but went on to split INC by forming the CSP.  He then retired from politics to work for Gandhian socialism at the village level in the 1950s.  His return to politics was to fight against Indira Gandhi's "betrayal" of Gandhian socialism and started a movement which finally led to the merger of most opposition parties into Janata Party in 1977.  On the Right, the BJP from time to time back in the 1980s and 1990s also used Gandhian socialism as their principle as a way to get OBC votes and expand from their upper caste vote base.

[jaichind]

Now that the election is over I would like to post my own history of Indian elections. I find most literature on this topic somewhat frustrating because when numbers are published they tend not to take pre-election alliances into account which often include independents as well, mostly because it is quite tedious to do.  They just post the seats won and vote share by party and move on with their very interesting and valid analysis.   Also the independent vote share 1967 and before is quite high and that is more of a function of rules of party registration which leads various party candidates to run as an independent even though they are clearly aligned with a party if not an entire front.  But I feel not taking pre-poll alliances and aligned independents into account often leads us to miss certain dynamics of an election.
I did some work on my own to correct this with my own methodology.  I tend to see an election as a battle between various fronts.  These fronts often include independents supported by the parties within the said front.  A front will usually have one or sometimes two pivot parties that other parties and independents would from pre-poll alliances with on a state by state basis.  Of course the concept of fronts in Indian elections is mostly something that developed during the 1971 election but I can retroactively construct proto-fronts before 1971.  
The rules I will use to define a front would be
1)   The name of the front would be a retroactive one.  If a front eventually evolved into something that ended up having a name, I will name the front with the name it would eventually adapt.  So all fronts led by INC would be called UPA and all fronts led by BJP would be called NDA even though UPA as a name did not really come into being until 2004 and NDA as a name did not appear until 1998.
2)   A front is defined as parties or independents that are allied with a pivot party of a said front on a state by state basis.  So a party could belong to different fronts from different states.  Sometimes a pivot party of one front could be very weak in a state and forms an alliance with another pivot party into another front.  In such a case the vote this pivot party captures would count toward the other front.  
3)   On principle, a front could not have more than one candidate per seat.  I will allow for some “friendly fights” when it is clear there is an alliance between the parties in said state for the front but the alliance is not perfect.
4)   I define something called “Regional front” which are made up of the sum significant regional parties or national parties plus independents that are aligned with them which on a state by state basis might not belong to a front.  This will also include rebels from parties within other fronts that I cannot include in the fronts of their mother party since that would violate the one candidate per front rule I have.  The idea is that all votes/seats that are not included in the various fronts and this Regional front are votes and seats won by true independents which are not aligned with any significant party or are truly irrelevant parties.  
5)  Where there is a bloc of regional parties in a significant state that is running as a bloc I will try to identify that as oppose to put them into "Regional Front" especially if they capture a large enough share of the national vote.

[jaichind]

1952

Front        Votes              Vote Share    Candidates     Wins                  
UPA      48,169,973           45.46%            486              367
NDA      11,706,524           11.05%            274               29
LF         15,630,858           14.75%            213               51  
SF         19,385,966           18.30%            427               31
JRF             796,730             0.75%               8                  3
PRF         1,111,975             1.05%              12                 4
RF           1,079,088             1.02%                                   4
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                                          92.38%                                489      out of 489 seats

LF means Left Front
SF means Socialist Front
RF means "Regional Front"

1) This is the first post-independence election in India.  INC led UPA was expected to do well but the scale of victory was somewhat surprising.  

2) NDA which pivots around BJS did not do so great which is not surprising given the sigma of the Gandhi assassination although it did somewhat well in WB due to the popularity of BJS founder Syama Prasad Mookerjee.  BJS mostly has strength in urban areas but most of the seats this front won are mainly proto-Swatantra forces in rural Northern India mostly made up of former princes.  Center-right parties like RRP HMS UPPP KLP CNSPJP and GP all had their pockets of influence in rural areas and got their share of seats and votes for the NDA front.  

3) LF which pivot around CPI but also included a number of Leftist parties did well mainly because their strength was concentrated in WB, Hyderbad, and Kerela.  Having proto-DMK (mostly running as independents) with Left front also helped in Madras.  

4) SF which consist of mainly of SP and KMPP both which are Socialist-Left splinter of INC were hoping to do well and hold UPA below an absolute majority and had a disappointing result.  SF challenged UPA across the board with SP taking on UPA in urban areas and KMPP in rural areas and was defeated across the board.  

5) JRF is Jharkhand Regional front which is really JHP and some pro-JHP independents.  JHP's agenda is the creation of a tribal based Jharkhand from Bihar and really is proto-JMM.  This proposal has a large segment of support in the tribal dominated part of Southern Bihar.

6) PRF is Punjab regional front which is just SAD.  The SAD agenda is a creation of a smaller Sikh dominated Punjab versus the larger Punjab where the Sikh did not from an absolute majority.  SAD split honors with UPA in the Sikh parts of Punjab.
 
7) Most of the "Regional Front" seats are mostly from INC rebels which managed to win 3 seats as well other rebels from other fronts.

On the whole there were some coordination between NDA, LF and SF to try to put up a united opposition to UPA, or else the scale of UPA victory would be even greater.  About 8% of the vote went to true independents or very minor players which still indicates that the party system is still being formed with a low level of polarization.  

[jaichind]

1957

Front        Votes              Vote Share    Candidates     Wins                  
UPA      57,898,977           48.04%            494              371
NDA      14,458,076           12.00%            233               23
LF         21,688,524           18.00%            215               59    
SF         15,384,878           12.77%            222               26
JRF            832,570              0.69%             14                 7
RF          3,647,916              3.03%                                   8
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          94.52%                              494      out of 494 seats

1) UPA which is pretty much just INC plus some independents was able to consolidate its position as the dominate ruling alliance.   SAD also merged into INC since 1952 adding to the UPA position in Punjab.

2) 1957 was another year of disappointment for NDA.  BJS was able to grow its base in urban areas but with the death of BJS founder Syama Prasad Mookerjee, it declined in WB.  Within the NDA there is consolidation toward the BJS as parties like HMS and RPP declined and their votes flowed to BJS and other center-right parties like ZP and KLP disappeared all together with most of their votes flowing to their BJS ally.   Also as UPA was able to grow its roots in former most rural princely states in Northern India, NDA backed independents in those areas also lost ground to UPA.  

3) LF for sure grained ground across the board.  Proto-DMK plus the rest of other LF parties continue to gain ground and seats in Madras.  A lot of various CPI united front leftist parties slowly merged into CPI which also help to consolidate LF.  

4) SF which was soundly defeated in its attempt to become a truly national opposition front to NDA became more realistic after its defeat in 1952 with the merge of SP and KMPP into PSP.  SF now contested a lot less seats concentrating its dwindling resources in places it can win.  As a result its vote share declined although its seat share did not go down much.  

5) JRF which is Jharkhand Regional front and dominated by JHP expanded on their success from 1952.  In 1957 they manage to expand into Orissa where some JHP backed independents also had strong performances in the tribal part of Orissa.

6) In the "Regional Front" side, they are various rebels of all stripes.  PSP rebels were especially numerous and has hurt the SF even as SF which had a disappointing 1952 election has seen their fortunes fall even more in 1957.  Proto-NJP which is about creation of a Gujarati speaking state out of Bombey state and has NDA leanings also appeared on the scene by winning a couple of seats.

Just like 1952, there were various tactical anti-UPA understandings between the NDA, LF and SF or else the scale of the UPA victory would have been even greater.  Around 6% of the vote went to true independents so there are signs that the party system is maturing.

[jaichind]

1962

Front        Votes              Vote Share    Candidates      Wins                  
UPA      52,172,073           45.30%            494               362
NDA      17,892,730           15.54%            380                39
LF         21,988,577           19.09%            270                53  
SF         12,169,173           10.57%            292                23
NRF         1,436,851             1.25%              79                  3
JRF             525,598             0.46%              14                  3
PRF            944,878             0.82%                8                  3
RF           3,384,771             2.94%                                    8
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          95.96%                                494      out of 494 seats

1) UPA declined somewhat from 1957 mostly due to split of Swatantra (SWA) which is a center-right split from INC which in turn joined NDA, but on the whole UPA was able to hold its own despite this defection because it was able to pick up support from SF voters to make up for this loss.  The rise of LF in Kerela where it formed the government in 1957 trigger the first intra-front alliance in a state.  PSP in Kerela joined UPA to fight the common enemy of LF.  

2) 1962 is the year of the NDA surge.  With SWA splitting from INC and joining BJS as a pivot party, the NDA vote and seat share surged. CNSPJP in the Jharkhand part of Bihar also merged into SWA.  Although due to poor coordination between the various NDA parties (BJS,SWA,HMS, and RPP) there were many states where alliances were not formed and as a result a lot of potentially NDA votes were accrued under "Regional Front."  If it had not been for this poor alliance building the NDA could have advanced even more.  Of course this is more of a process of BJS and SWA felling out each other's strengths in different states before committing to an alliance.  The NDA would have done even better in terms of seats if these alliances were worked out well and if the NRF were not formed as a center-right rival to NDA.

3) If NDA stagnated in 1957, then LF stagnated in 1962.   Only the whole LF was able to hold its own relative to 1957 but did not make much progress beyond that.  The LF advance in Madras was halted due to the growth of SWA which was able to capture a lot of the anti-UPA vote from DMK-CPI-REP which in turn blunted the LF advance in Madras.

4) The decline of the SF continued in 1962.  PSP split into PSP and SOC and even though this pair still formed an alliance at many states they were not perfect and added to the woes of the SF on top of an declining vote share.  PSP and SOC were still able to win in some of their old strongholds and still managed to not lose too many seats.  

5) NRF is NDA rebel front.  NRF consist of RRP which never really worked with NDA since 1952 and HMS which in 1952 and 1957 tried to work within the NDA framework took advantage of the clear right wing upsurge to try to capture some of that right vote share and seats for itself in its own front outside of NDA.  On the whole they did win a few seats but never made a real impact other than to hurt NDA chances in places like UP and MP where the drift to the right was obvious.

6) JRF is Jharkhand Regional front which consist of JHP and various pro-JHP candidates in Jharkhand and parts of Orissa.  The Jharkhand movement clearly is ebbing in terms of vote share but JRF did win 3 seats.  After 1962 JRF will fuse into INC but the Jharkhand movement will live on in various independent candidates with JHP background followed by the formation of JKP as a successor of JHP.  Later an even more radical JMM will emerge as a torchbearer of the Jharkhand movement.  

7) PRF is Punjab regional front.  In 1957 SAD merged into INC but due to conflicts where the SAD goal of a Sikh dominated Punjab was not realized, SAD split back out in 1962 and shared honors with UPA again in 1962 in Sikh part of Punjab.

8 ) The "regional front" is a combination of regional parties, INC rebels which in a troubling sign for UPA is now more numerous and taking up more vote share, and of course various center-right NDA parties that did not run within the NDA front for certain states.   ML also became an active force in Kerela and to some extent Madras which took a good deal of the vote and won 2 seats.  PSP rebels are also still numerous and managed to take a seat.

As the strengths of NDA and LF grows, the level of intra-front tactical coordination between NDA, LF and SF is on the wane so even as NDA and LF vote share grows and UPA vote share declines, the UPA seats are not that damaged.  Overall the trend of NDA and LF gaining in urban area from UPA and UPA gaining from SF in rural areas continued.  1962 is the year that the right finally is beginning to shake off the stigma of the Gandhi assassination of 1947.  1967 will be an even better year for NDA but that is merely fusing the various pro-NDA votes shares into one front.  The basis of the 1967 NDA success was planted in 1962.   This time only less than 5% of the vote share are going to true independents which is a even deepening of the party system and greater partisan polarization and the rise of the center-right NDA.

[jaichind]

1967

Front        Votes              Vote Share    Candidates     Wins                  
UPA      59,494,852           40.79%            517              284
NDA      27,193,889           18.64%            445               83
LF         31,802,222           21.80%            329              102
SF         12,681,612             8.69%            256               33
RF           6,026,539             4.13%                                 18
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                                          94.06%                               520     out of 520 seats

1) 1967 is a watershed election as it herald the end of the INC system of 1952.  The disastrous war with PRC in 1962 after the 1962 elections, death of Nehru, and economic problems meant that the domination of the INC was coming to and end.  UPA lost votes across the board and a combination of alliances between rival fronts plus a lost of vote share to other fronts and rebels meant that the INC seat count fell significantly as to be barely over the majority mark.  More regional INC splinters emerged that came to hurt UPA.  BAC was formed in WB and aligned with LF while JAC formed in Orissa and aligned with SF.  The only thing on the positive side of the ledger since 1952 is the merger of a weakened JHP into INC which does help UPA in the Jharkhand part of Bihar.  The growth of INC rebels and splinters bodes poorly on the prospects of UPA for the next election if it continues on this path.  It will turn out things will NOT continue on the same path.

2) NDA gained ground in terms of seats mostly due to consolidation and coordination within NDA parties like BJS and SWA which also took advantage of the relative decline of UPA.  NRF parties like RPP and HMS mostly becoming inactive and transferring their vote base into NDA also helped with the consolidation.  In terms of vote share once we take into account of the consolidation and coordination within NDA parties NDA did not grow that much.  Again, the growth seems to take place more in urban areas while UPA still has the advantage in rural areas.  

3) LF made gains against UPA mainly in WB (due to alliance with BAC and PSP), Kerela (due to SSP coming over to support LF as well as MUL), and Madras (to be called TN after 1967 as DMK came into power) (due to the anti-Hindi movement as well as SWA joining LF in Madras into a DMK-CPI-SWA grand united front which crushed UPA).  Also SAD joining LF added to the seats and vote share of LF.  CPM split from CPI in 1965 but for the purposes of federal election both CPI and CPM are part of LF and both are pivot parties of LF.

4) SF continued their slide in vote share but due to a even greater slide in UPA support actually gained seats relative to 1962.  In some LF bastions the SF parties are beginning to join LF due to the decline of SF strength.

5) The "regional front" this time around is mostly massive number of INC rebels which won a large number of seats (6) and votes.  INC rebels hit hard in places like WB where INC splinter BAC already took a bloc of INC vote share there and Maharastra.   It also includes the re-emerged JKN, ADM which is a SAD splinter and various other small state regional parties.    Proto-TPS which are pro-Telegana INC rebels also are appearing in larger numbers.   There are also more BJS and SWA rebels since this time NDA is doing a better job of coordinating which in turn leads to more rebellion.  SWA rebels also won 2 seats and damaged NDA in Bihar. While JHP merged into INC, the Jharkhand movement continued as proto-JKP took its place and won a seat in the Jharkhand region along with some of the old JHP vote base.

In 1967 the truely independents actually captured 6% of the vote which is an increase from 1962.  This is a sign of a breakdown of the INC machine but not all the votes lost are flowing to significant players in other fronts but instead is splintering.  The number of NDA LF and SF supported independents are going down as the party structure continue to solidify and party identities continues to grow at the voter base level.  On the other hand the decline of UPA also means that this is the beginning of era of horse trading and politics of defections at the politician level.  Intra-front tactical deals are on the decline between NDA LF and SF in the pre-election phase or else the UPA decline would have been worse.  On the other hand as the UPA declines and the prospect of a non-UPA government increases the level of deals between NDA LF and SF post-election increases.

[jaichind]

1971

Front        Votes              Vote Share    Candidates     Wins                  
UPA      74,520,762           50.83%            498              400
NDA      34,300,507           23.40%            486               52
LF         10,588,294             7.22%            148               28      
SF           4,107,884             2.80%            139                 4
BF           3,135,694             2.14%              89                 1
CF           5,312,919             3.62%              79               15
WBRF      1,138,146             0.78%              29                 2
TRF         1,873,589             1.28%              14                10
PRF         1,257,802             0.86%              12                 1
ORF         1,053,176             0.72%              20                 1
RF           2,659,099             1.81%                                   4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          95.46%                               518     out of 518 seats

After 1967, the INC when through a series of splits which in turn led to a realignment of the party system.  First Charan Singh split off and crated the BKD taking OBC middle small landing peasants in UP and other parts of Northern India with him.  At the time BKD was seen as a leftist split from INC.  VHP as a Haryana splinter also split from INC in 1967.  Then in 1969 INC itself split down the middle between Indira Gandhi's leftist INC(R) and the Kamaraj and later Morarji Desai's rightist INC(O).  All things equal INC(R) was stronger and was supported by other parties of the LF like CPI and DMK.  INC(O) formed an alliance with NDA and became a pivot party of the NDA.  Also in 1969 TPS which is really proto-TRS with a one point agenda of creating Telenagan split from INC as well as UTC which is a proto-BJD split off from INC as an Orissa splinter.  INC(R) continued was a minority government with outside support from CPI and DMK until the mid-term elections of 1971.  The leaders of INC(O) made a mistake by delaying their fallout with Indira Gandhi.  One of the reasons INC(R) retained most the the old INC support was that in the 1969 Presidential elections, the Indira Gandhi faction aligned with the LF to support the leftist independent Giri, while the rightist Syndicate faction of the INC aligned with NDA to back the official INC candidate Reddy.  Giri won which was a signal for those in the INC on the sidelines that they should jump on Indira Gandhi bandwagon.  Had the split taken place before the Presidential election the INC(R) advantage would not have been so great.

1) The UPA of 1971 is well to the left of the UPA of 1967 and was able to retain a majority of the old UPA vote base.  The UPA election machine of 1967 was in decline and Indira surged to victory by destroying the old INC machine (much like Koizumi 2005 "Vote for LDP to destroy LDP") and making direct appeals based on a new leftist agenda.  UPA with INC(R) at its core got CPI from the LF to join it in certain states (like Kerela, TN and Punjab) and limited understanding with CPI Front (CF) in others (UP, WB).  UPA also got DMK from the LF to align with UPA. UPA also got PSP to support it in Gujarat and other places where PSP was not running.  Most literature speaks of the INC in 1971 as "restoring" the old position of INC in the Nehru's days.  If one looks at it from a front perspective, Indira Gandhi's UPA far exceeded what Nehru's accomplished both in terms of vote share and seats, especially when we take into account that UPA did not contest all seats since it had some tactical understanding with CF in UP and WB.

2) The NDA with the injection of INC(O) had expected to do well enough to keep UPA from a majority if not capture a plurality itself.  SWA by now had come into decline and the NDA pivot parties are now INC(O) and BJS.  SSP also now joined NDA in several states as did VHP and even BKD in Maharashtra.   Overall the NDA also known as the Grand Alliance in 1971 totally flopped as they could not come up with a leader that could match Indira Gandhi's charisma.  In fact, by NDA running against Indira Gandhi actually hurt their cause (perhaps like UPA and TF running against Modi in 2014 boomeranged on them).  Overall all INC(O) seems to have done is to cannibalize the NDA vote although INC(O) was strong in Gujarat and TN and was able to push up NDA support in those states.

3) The LF completely split under the leftward shift of the UPA.  DMK when over the UPA as did CPI in some states.  RSP and MUL also went over to UPA with CPI in Kerela.  Dalit based RPG split from RPK went from LF to UPA in Maharashtra.  In WB it is complete chaos with CPI coming to a partial understanding with UPA but CPI and CPM pitted with each other in a fratricidal battle.  Worse, BAC also had a falling out with LF and went off on its own taking FBL with them.  In Punjab SAD ended their alliance with LF and went off on their own.  What the LF is left with is a CPM dominated alliance in Kerela and WB, and CPI joining UPA in some states and split off into its own front in other states that choose not to join UPA.  As a result in terms of vote share and seats LF fell in a dramatic fashion from 1967.

4) The SF is coming close to ceasing to exist also as a result of the polarization between UPA and NDA stemming from the INC split of 1969.  SSP joined NDA in several states and PSP is backing UPA in several states as well.   Also BKD led BF also is competing for the same vote based as the SF and adds to the woes of SF.  What remains tried to put up a front with SF but in terms of shares of votes and seats it is coming close to the end of this front which is really just one of the last steps of the decline of SF since 1951.

5) The BF (BKD front) led by BKD was considered left of UPA in 1967 when it was formed but by 1971 was considered center-right.  BKD clearly had some understanding with NDA and had some tactical alliances and even joined NDA in Maharastra. Overall BF did well in terms of votes as a new front but did not win much in terms of seats other than to split the anti-UPA vote.

6) The CF (CPI front) is mostly CPI in states that it did not join UPA.  In places like UP and WB CF reached tactical understanding with UPA and to some lesser extent in places like Orissa and Bihar.   As a result, CF should be seen as a allied front of UPA as CF supported to UPA after the election.

7) The WBRF (West Bengal Regional Front) was led by INC splinter BAC that was with LF in 1967 but then broke with the CPM and now is leading a front in WB of other former LF members like FBL and RSP to challenge UPA NDA and LF figuring that it could fish in troubled waters.  It failed to do well an by 1977 BAC would reemerge back into INC.

8 ) TRF is Telengana Regional Front based on TPS. Note that pro-Telengana INC rebels have been already fighting the UPA in the Telengana region of AP for years.  In 1971 this movement exploded with the creation of TPS which is mostly made up of INC rebels.  TPS managed to take 10 seats in a year where the UPA is winning everywhere which is quite impressive.

9) PRF is Punjab Regional Front which is a reunited SAD that decided to leave the LF to go off on its own again.  SAD was brushed aside by the UPA wave but did establish itself as the main opposition to UPA in Punjab.

10) ORF is Orissa Regional Front which is made up of the INC splinter UTC.  UPA swept Orissa as UTC split the anti-UPA vote with the SWA led NDA in Orissa.  UTC did establish itself as the main opponent to UPA in Orissa.

11) The RF first of all various INC rebels.  And the rest are rebels of all types as regional parities that are active in very small number seats such as JKN which mostly ran as independents since JKN boycotting polls and the newly emerged SHS in Maharashtra.  A reemerged JKP which continued to push for Jharkhand  also made its appearance as well as CNSPJP which split from SWA to form JAP also emerged in the Jharkhand part of Bihar.

The vote and seats share received by UPA was unprecedented and represented a massive mandate for UPA.  The true independent vote fell to less than 4% and is a sign of the polarization of the electorate.   The chaos of the split of the old INC lead to a great fragmentation of political forces with many regional forces going off on its own to try to capture a share of the power on its own.  Of course turnout in 1971 actually dropped from 1967 which itself is a sign of the death of the turnout machine of the old INC which mostly went over to INC(O) only to be crushed by Indira Gandhi's new INC.  Those that did turnout clearly voted for a mandate for UPA.

P.S.

I tried to create a chart of estimated the net flows of votes were from 1967 to 1971 and I came up with below

xxx   UPA   NDA   LF   SF   BF   CF WBRF  TRF   PRF   ORF   RF    Oth    67
UPA   35.7  3.3   0.0  0.0  0.7  0.5   0.0    0.4    0.0    0.2   0.0   0.0   40.8
NDA   0.0  17.8  0.0  0.0   0.3  0.0   0.0    0.2   0.0    0.3   0.0   0.0   18.6
LF      9.3   0.9   6.9  0.0   0.0  3.1   0.8    0.1   0.7    0.0   0.0   0.0   21.8
SF      4.0  0.7   0.3   2.7   1.0  0.0   0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0   0.0   0.0     8.7
RF     1.0   0.5   0.0   0.1  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.5    0.1    0.1   1.8   0.0     4.1
Oth   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.1  0.0   0.0   0.1    0.1    0.1   0.0   4.6     6.0
71   50.8 23.4   7.2  2.8   2.1  3.6   0.8   1.3    0.9     0.7  1.8    4.6   

The far right is column is the 1967 results and bottom row are the 1971 results.  One can see that LF lost a lot of votes to CF (makes sense) and WBRF (makes sense) as well as UPA which is really the result of the shift left by UPA.  LF also lost SWA in TN which was in LF in TN in 1967 but was in NDA in 1971 in TN.  UPA lost votes to NDA through the defection of INC(O), BF via the creation of BKD, and various regional fronts with mostly the various INC splinters.  SF lost votes to UPA NDA and BF through polarization.  What this chart shows how little impact INC(O) had on joining NDA which is small relative to what UPA got from getting LF and SF votes.  The truly independent and minor party vote from 1967 stayed there or went over to UPA or NDA as part of the polarization and mostly in favor of UPA.  What is also clear is that out of the around 41% vote share that the UPA got in 1967 it retained most of that vote share, around 36%, even though it shifted to the left to capture the LF vote.

[jaichind]

1977

Front        Votes              Vote Share    Candidates     Wins          
UPA      76,191,101           40.33%            542              188
NDA    101,283,752           53.61%            539              352
CF           3,110,163             1.65%             87                   0
RF           2,443,760             1.29%                                    2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          96.88%                               542  out of 542 seats

The period between 1971 and 1977 is a period of party consolidations mergers and then extreme polarization around Indira Gandhi and the Emergency of 1975-77.  In the aftermath of the UPA landslide of 1971 various INC splinters re-merged into INC such as TPS and BAC.  SWA which had been in decline even by 1971 fell further after the death of its founder Rajaji and by 1974 had merged with BKD to form BLD.  The two Socialist parties SSP and PSP also concluded that they had to merge into SOC and concentrate limited resources.  Seeing the power of the UPA in the 1971 landslide, BJS, INC(O), SOC and BLD formed an alliance on a state by state basis to try to counter UPA.  They were able to beat UPA in the Gujarat Assembly elections in 1975 which along with a Allahabad High Court judgment against Indira Gandhi on some election technicality infraction led Indira Gandhi to put India in a state of emergency for 21 months.   The emergency was actually positive for the economy but that coupled with various draconian measured related to family planning and slum cleanup led to the erosion of Muslim and Dalit support for UPA in Northern India.   Still, when the emergency was suspended and the 1977 election came, it was expected that the UPA would win.  What upset this expectation was the merger of INC(O), BLD, BJS and SOC into the Janata Party (JNP).  Then CFD which is led by INC dalit leader Jagjivan Ram split from INC and merged into JNP.  Furthermore, other INC splinter parties such as UTC and JAC that were hostile to Indira Gandhi ergo did not merge into INC now also merged into JNP.  The result was a massive anti-UPA landslide in Northern India even while UPA had the upper hand in Southern India.

1) UPA still retained the CPI as part of UPA in some states (like WB, Kerela, and TN).  DMK had broken with UPA over the emergency, but DMK itself split in 1972 and the AIADMK allied with UPA instead.  UPA also retained dalit support like RPI in Maharashtra and also parties like RSP, KEC and MUL in Kerlea.  As a result UPA did well in the South and Maharashtra but was crushed in Northern India.  What took place in Northern India was real all anti-UPA forces merged into JNP PLUS the defection of the significant part of the INC Muslim and Dalit vote based to JNP.  As a result most election results in Northern India were along the lines of JNP 55%-60% vs INC 30%.  One the plus side UPA did rope in JKN into UPA and as a result UPA managed to do well in J&K.

2) I still called the JNP led front NDA mostly because almost all the components of the JNP are to the right of INC in 1977.  The emergency led to all sorts of political forces now joined up with JNP to defeat UPA.  They included regional parties like DMK and SAD as well as the the CPM across the board and other leftist parties like PWP and RPK in Maharastra as well as FBL and RSP in WB.  So in other words, the LF in 1977 pretty much merged into NDA to form a grand alliance to defeat UPA.  It is in this context one has to understand the impressive and unprecedented 53.61% vote share of NDA in 1977.

3) CF which is CPI led front is the CPI in states which did not choose to join UPA.  Given the bipolar battle between UPA and NDA this front did not come up with much votes and no seats.

4) There are really no other real fronts in 1977 other than a bipolar fight UPA and NDA.  The only seats won by RF is a JNP rebel and MAG which is a Goa regional party that did not join either UPA nor NDA.  In WB there are also significant INC rebels due to CPI being in UPA in WB.  At the same time in WB there are significant LF rebels due to the merger of LF and NDA in WB.  The Kashmir Accord of 1975 also meant that the extremist separatist elements will now contest elections and won a good bloc of votes in J&K.

To date what NDA achieved in 1977 is the highest vote share won by any front ever and not to be matched since.  Of course this is only possible because of the bi-polar nature of the election of 1977.  In fact the UPA vote share of 40.33% is quite respectable and not that different from UPA in 1967.  The seat share difference were massive when compared to 1967 mainly due to the almost complete consolidation of the anti-UPA vote in Northern India.   The fact that around 3% of the vote went to minor or truly independent candidates is another sign of the polarized nature of the election.

From my point of view, what UPA accomplished in 1971 with 50.83% vote share was more impressive than what NDA achieved in 1977 with 53.61% mostly because of the bipolar nature of 1977 whereas 1971 was still more of a multi-polar election and UPA did not run in all the seats due to tactical adjustment with CPI led CF.  

[jaichind]

1980

Front        Votes              Vote Share    Candidates     Wins                  
UPA       91,714,202          46.36%            528              381
NDA      45,067,903           22.78%            481               34
LF         17,824,808             9.01%              97               57
NF         23,258,522           11.76%            357              43
CRF         7,746,439             3.92%            186                8
JRF             549,025             0.28%              28                2
RF           1,859,841             0.94%                                  4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          95.04%                               529  out of 529 seats

The JNP led government started to show signs of falling apart a year or so into the new administration.  This makes sense as JNP is really a fusion of disparate parties like BJS SWA BKD, SOC, INC(O), CFD, and various other regional splinters.  There then developed a rivalry between BKD and SOC factions on the one hand and the BJS SWA INC(O) and CFD facations on the other.  The other development which helped the JNP in the short run but then actually acted as a force to accelerate the JNP split was the breakup of the INC.  Indira Gandhi wanted an INC which was completely loyal to her which led to two rounds of splits of INC into INC(I) (pro-Indira) and INC(U).  The BKD and SOC factions then, with support from both INC(I) and INC(U) broke away from JNP to form JNP(S) which brought down the JNP government.  Then INC(I) backed out of their support of JNP(S) leading to new elections.  JNP(S) formed an center-left alternative  front to the JNP led NDA which I call National Front (NF).  The real NF would not be formed until 1989 but just like in 1989 the NF of 1980 was a center-left opposition front and had tactical alliances with the LF and in some states NF parties joined LF and vice versa.

1) UPA this time, under the influence of Sanjay Gandhi, ran much more to the right than the UPA of 1977 and 1971.  It focused on bringing stability to Indian politics.  In a reverse of 1977, UPA this time roped in DMK as part of UPA and also retained JKN as a member in J&K.  In Goa INC(U) actually joined UPA even thought INC(U) is with NF in most relevant places.  JNP actually joined UPA in Kerela which is a sign of the extreme polarization between UPA and LF that national enemies of UPA would still join UPA in Kerela.  Overall UPA was able to sweep the elections as the anti-UPA vote was split in Northern India as well as the return of Muslim and Dalit vote to UPA.   The JNP government was seen as a regime for upper castes and OBCs and that drove Muslim and Dalit votes back home to UPA.  Still, UPA could not replicate its 1971 results mainly because CPI and other Leftist parties now are solidly back with LF now that UPA has swung back right again.  The UPA victory in terms of vote share and seats very much resembles 1962.  

2) NDA is mostly the JNP which now is composed of the BJS SWA INC(O) and CFD factions.  Even though AIADMK supports NF at the national level, in TN, AIADMK joined NDA since JNP's INC(O) faction still has significant strength in TN.  AIADMK's main goal is to find significant allies to counter its local DMK enemy in TN.  CPI and CPM also joined NDA in TN and fought along side AIADMK against DMK-INC even as they oppose NDA at the national level. This is also a sign of the TN polarization between DMK and AIADMK.  SAD also stayed with NDA just 1977.  The NDA was defeated on all places and despite a significant vote share only ended up with 34 seats.  The creation of the NF led by JNP(S) split the anti-UPA vote in Northern India and if anything NF got its support in the right places to win a few seats whereas NDA could not even manage that.

3) Now that UPA has swung right the schism between CPI and CPM over CPI's support of Indira Gandhi is over as CPI and CPM are both back in LF.  The CPM traditionally has been strong in WB and Kerela but weak in places like UP and Bihar whereas CPI has strength in Northern India like UP and Bihar.  The experience the CPI had where it allied with UPA in 1971 and 1977 had led this block of support in those states to dissipate.   As a result LF in 1980 focused mostly in states like WB and Kerela where it had strength and CPI/CPM mostly joined up with NF in states where they were weak.  INC(U) joined LF in Kerela to fight UPA there.  The realistic approach LF took in 1980 as well as unity between CPI and CPM led to LF winning a good haul of seats despite its lower vote share.

4) NF is pivoted around JNP(S).  Other than leftist parities that joined in NF in some states, NF is mostly JNP(S) and INC(U).  Although INC(U) coordination with NF is inconsistent.  INC(U) is actually with UPA in Goa, LF in Kerela, and running under its own front in most states.  INC(U) joined NF in Gujarat and AP.   Still in a good portion of states the INC(U) led CRF front had tactical understanding with NF which had good concentration pockets of support in UP and Bihar that it was able to withstand the split of JNP and JNP(S) when it came to beating INC.  NF and LF also had some tactical understandings even in states where they could not legally join forces (like in states where CPI/CPM joined NF).  As a result NF managed more seats than NDA even though it got a lot less seats.

5) INC(U) intended to join NF but as the election started it ended up running on its own front with the CRF front or Congress Rebel Front.  INC(U) joined UPA, LF, and NF in different states but overall CRF ran on its own account.  CRF did have some tactical understanding with LF and NF in some states and was able to win a few seats when it could have ended up with nothing if the anti-UPA vote was completely split.

6) JRF is Jharkhand Regional Front which has reemerged as a significant force once the 1977 polarization is over.   In the Jharkand region JKD and its more radical version proto-JMM continues to grow.  The 1977 polarization suppressed the Jharkhand vote but now the movement continues where Jharkhand parties continues to win vote share in Jharkhand part of Bihar as well as tribal parts of WB and Orissa.  JRF managed 2 seats but showed that the Jharkhand movement is alive.

7) Various small regional parities and rebels won the 4 seats that RF managed to get.   There are still some INC rebels one of whom managed to win a seat.  SUC which is a LF splinter in WB won some votes.

Just like 1977 although it is not as extreme, the competition between UPA NDA and LF/NF/CRF ate up most of the political oxygen. Around 5% of the votes are for true independents or minor players which is fairly low by historical standards when compared to the 1950s and 1960s.  Turnout is down from 1977 as a sign of disillusionment by the failure of the JNP government.