India 1991 w/Rajiv

[RogueBeaver]

Let's say that Rajiv has better security or avoids threats for the campaign's remainder. Who wins? Also, how would another Rajiv term work out?

[jaichind]

We have a pretty good answer to that question.  In 1991 the election was broken up into several phases.  All districts that voted before Gandhi's assassination showed a significant swing from INC and JD to BJP.  In all districts that voted after Gandhi's assassination showed a significant swing  from JD to INC with BJP making small gains.  So assuming that Gandhi was not assassinated the BJP would likely have won the election with a plurality and perhaps formed a minority government.  It would be that or INC forming a government with JD support from the outside versus an outright INC government in 1991.

[RogueBeaver]

Which of those scenarios is more likely? Perhaps let the BJP govern, and if they fail then INC swoops in again? Or INC cobbles together a deal with JD?

[TX Conservative Dem]

Big question is whether Rajiv would have groomed a successor to succeed him as PM.