Lebanese general election (May 6th 2018)

[oddfellowslocal151]

   In general how do Maronite political figures feel about Assad.  Wouldn't they kind of like him as being better, at least in theory, toward the Syrian Christians than most of his opponents?

It runs the spectrum, and is more about the different leaders' stances on the Iran/Saudi split. They all share a common disdain for Syrian refugees, but that's every politician in the country.

...Which reminds me, something to keep in mind is that like 25% of the pop. of the country is Syrian refugees, which, when you add in Palestinian refugees, guest workers, under-21s, and those who abstained from voting, makes this a really small pool of people deciding.

[palandio]

It seems to me that the simple March 8 vs. March 14 calculations proposed by Reuters among others don't give an accurate picture of the internal dynamics in Lebanese politics. In particular Future and FPM seem to have converged to a certain degree, alienating their former allies. In fact they fielded joint lists in many constituencies.

And it's not like many non-Shia voters voted for actual Hezbollah candidates. Amal/Hezbollah didn't win anything close to an outright majority on their own.

Of course the overall trend is still relatively friendly to Hezbollah's strategic position:
- Amal/Hezbollah have monopolized the Shia vote.
- A sizeable part of Sunnis has voted for Hezbollah-friendly candidates (not for Hezbollah proper). E.g. preliminary results from Tripoli/Minniyeh/Denniyeh are: Future 5 seats, Mikati list (relatively Hezbollah-friendly) 4, Karami list (very pro-Syrian) 2, Rifi list (very anti-Hezbollah) 0. Less pronounced, but similar, in West Beirut and Sidon.
- Pro-Syrian Christian/secular outfits like Marada and SSNP have won seats.
- The FPM, which despite its pact with Future is still relatively Hezbollah-friendly, has won many seats.
- Future is not as hawkish anymore as it has been in the past.
- FPM+Future don't have a majority. If they want to build a stable majority in a fragmented parliament, the Amal/Hezbollah block will be the most solid option instead of collecting all the minor localist politicians or the Christian Right (LF, Kataeb, etc.) which is at odds with FPM.

[palandio]

The LF (Lebanese Forces), which is Christian/Maronite-dominated and clearly anti-Hezbollah, seems to have more than doubled their seat count to 17.

Future and FPM lost, Future a lot, FPM a bit.

Anti-establishment candidates didn't manage to break through. In Beirut it seems that Paula Yacoubian gained a seat and Joumana Haddad came close to gain another one.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Results by party (Note these are prelim and are subject to change):

Future Movement - 20 seats
Independents - 16
Amal - 16
FPM - 16
Lebanese Forces - 13
Hezbollah - 12
Progressive Socialists - 9
Azm Movement - 4
Kataeb - 3
Marada Movement - 3
Syrian Social Nationalist Party - 3
Tashnaq - 3
We are All National - 2
Al-Ahbash - 1
Independence Movement - 1
LDP - 1
National Dialogue - 1
PNO - 1
Union Party - 1

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Results by party:

Future Movement - 20 seats
Independents - 16
Amal - 16
FPM - 16
Hezbollah - 12
Progressive Socialists - 9
Azm Movement - 4
Kataeb - 3
Marada Movement - 3
Syrian Social Nationalist Party - 3
Tashnaq - 3
We are All National - 2
Al-Ahbash - 1
Independence Movement - 1
LDP - 1
National Dialogue - 1
PNO - 1
Union Party - 1

Hezbollah-Amal faction: 72
Hariri faction: 40
Unknown (I am not familiar with some party positions): 16 (Independents)
65 needed for majority

Am I blind or I don't see Lebanese Forces here?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Results by party:

Future Movement - 20 seats
Independents - 16
Amal - 16
FPM - 16
Hezbollah - 12
Progressive Socialists - 9
Azm Movement - 4
Kataeb - 3
Marada Movement - 3
Syrian Social Nationalist Party - 3
Tashnaq - 3
We are All National - 2
Al-Ahbash - 1
Independence Movement - 1
LDP - 1
National Dialogue - 1
PNO - 1
Union Party - 1

Hezbollah-Amal faction: 72
Hariri faction: 40
Unknown (I am not familiar with some party positions): 16 (Independents)
65 needed for majority

Am I blind or I don't see Lebanese Forces here?

Oops, forgot to add them

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

For some reasons multiple sites display a different amount of seats, English websites and Arabic websites have differing results, I am using LBCI for results.

[palandio]

Yeah, all these independents got elected on party-sponsored lists. That is one of the reasons why FPM leader Gebran Bassil (Michel Aoun's son-in-law) claims that "his parliamentary bloc" has 30 seats (incl. Tashnag and FPM-friendly independents). This would in turn result in a theoretical majority for the "parliamentary blocs" of FPM+Future+LF, which would strengthen the strategic position of FPM vs. both Future+LF and Amal+Hezbollah.