UK - Alternate Coloring
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Author Topic: UK - Alternate Coloring  (Read 14711 times)
DistingFlyer
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« Reply #50 on: October 05, 2014, 01:56:37 AM »
« edited: October 05, 2014, 02:12:00 AM by DistingFlyer »

And the big smash of 1997:

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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #51 on: October 06, 2014, 09:18:58 AM »

And 2001:

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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #52 on: October 06, 2014, 12:59:51 PM »

And now the last two elections:

May 2005


May 2010
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #53 on: August 23, 2015, 02:13:02 PM »
« Edited: August 23, 2015, 02:17:15 PM by DistingFlyer »

With official constituency counts now published (and myself back home from sea), here are maps for margin & winners' share of the vote for 2015:


And the constituency swings:


And the Tory & Labour vote shares for each seat:


Once again, thanks to afleitch for the original constituency outlines.
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doktorb
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« Reply #54 on: August 24, 2015, 12:56:47 AM »

Great maps and work folks.

1997 and 2015 on the same page:



 
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #55 on: August 24, 2015, 04:45:20 AM »

Does anyone have the map for 1945? It's one of the few I've never seen anywhere on this forum.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #56 on: August 24, 2015, 04:57:52 AM »

Does anyone have the map for 1945? It's one of the few I've never seen anywhere on this forum.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/88/UK_Election_1945_Map.png
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #57 on: August 24, 2015, 05:00:06 AM »


Oh, the beauty! Cheesy

(too bad it's not shaded though)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #58 on: August 24, 2015, 09:49:51 AM »

And that's my outline map as well. Yay.

Anyway IIRC stepney made one once, but I can't recall where it was posted or whether the image is still even online?

Either way I've been meaning to get round to doing some stuff of that election for a while, so maybe watch this space.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #59 on: September 05, 2015, 03:36:49 PM »

This'll be a bit of a long one - Liberal & SNP/PC support, by seat, for each election:

Feb 1974



Oct 1974



May 1979



Jun 1983



Jun 1987



Apr 1992



May 1997



Jun 2001



May 2005



May 2010



May 2015

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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #60 on: September 10, 2015, 07:51:17 AM »

What I find most interesting is the gradual greening of Pembrokeshire (Little England beyond Wales). Any suggestions why that might be?
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #61 on: April 01, 2018, 06:02:56 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2018, 06:29:39 PM by DistingFlyer »

A little late, I realize, but finally found a set of 2017 vote figures that seemed final (and didn't mysteriously contain 2015 results in some constituencies!), so here's a map for last summer's vote.

Most striking is how uniformly dark the right-hand map is, showing the winning candidate's share of the vote. Successful Tories averaged 55.4% of the vote, their best showing since 1959; Labour winners averaged 59.5%, their best since 1966. Additionally, Liverpool Walton produced the biggest Labour majority (77.1%) since 1945, while Christchurch, with a Tory majority of 49.7%, is the darkest blue constituency (with the exception of five 2015 seats) since 1979.



I should have a swing map up soon.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #62 on: April 01, 2018, 07:31:43 PM »


Hopefully Lib/Nat support maps following? Smiley
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #63 on: April 01, 2018, 07:41:38 PM »

Yes, I'll be putting up party vote maps for them too (plus Labour & the Tories, of course).
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EPG
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« Reply #64 on: April 02, 2018, 05:28:38 AM »
« Edited: April 02, 2018, 05:44:29 AM by EPG »

A little late, I realize, but finally found a set of 2017 vote figures that seemed final (and didn't mysteriously contain 2015 results in some constituencies!), so here's a map for last summer's vote.


Electoral Commission data still off? (Edit: I haven't followed this thread, why is St Ives so dark in left-hand map?)
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EPG
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« Reply #65 on: April 02, 2018, 06:08:01 AM »

There are still some unreconciled differences even in official sources, like whether Labour in Milton Keynes South won 28,987 votes (Milton Keynes Council and Electoral Commission) or 28,927 (House of Commons Library provisional figures).
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #66 on: April 02, 2018, 06:42:47 PM »

Here's a swing map for 2017:




In some ways it's like 1992, with a 3% swing to Labour in England & Wales offset to 2% UK-wide due to a pro-Tory swing in Scotland. However, the regional differences are even more pronounced than 1992, with a very large Scottish swing to the Conservatives and a very large urban swing to Labour.

The swing differences are less between regions than within regions: central London swinging very hard, with the eastern suburbs & Thames-bordering constituencies going the other way. The eastern part of West Yorkshire, along with most of South Yorkshire, also swung Tory while western Sheffield & the rest of West Yorkshire swung Labour. Similar differences can be seen in Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, and the urban West Midlands.

If one was to characterize these differences, it would be that the most longtime loyal Labour areas either swung Tory or at least very little to Labour, while the areas that haven't been as Labour-friendly or at least haven't been for as long did swing very hard. Even when the Tories were forecast to win very heavily, such a swing difference seemed to be expected.

Also, here are the party support maps - first Tory & Labour:



And here are the Liberals & Nationalists:





One final note: I've updated the earlier 2017 map to correct a few mistakes I initially made in Hertfordshire & Cornwall.
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EPG
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« Reply #67 on: April 03, 2018, 02:39:56 PM »

Here's a swing map for 2017:
If one was to characterize these differences, it would be that the most longtime loyal Labour areas either swung Tory or at least very little to Labour, while the areas that haven't been as Labour-friendly or at least haven't been for as long did swing very hard. Even when the Tories were forecast to win very heavily, such a swing difference seemed to be expected.

Many of them are heartlands of White English ethnics, often where culture and immigration are or have been significant vote swingers. The Black Country, the Thames Estuary, the east coast, and more recently there was a very bad conspiracy to hurt children concentrated among some British Pakistanis in South Yorkshire. What I can't explain: Tyne Tees land (formerly known as the North-East Euroregion). The other phenomenon is LD collapse from 2nd or 3rd in a handful of constituencies where they had built a vote among natural Tories.

Why this all happened to help the incumbent Tories in 2017 is another question. My guess is that Ukip did unusually well among those voters in 2015, and they fell back to their "natural" home (since 1970).
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #68 on: April 03, 2018, 02:44:17 PM »

Here's a swing map for 2017:
If one was to characterize these differences, it would be that the most longtime loyal Labour areas either swung Tory or at least very little to Labour, while the areas that haven't been as Labour-friendly or at least haven't been for as long did swing very hard. Even when the Tories were forecast to win very heavily, such a swing difference seemed to be expected.

Many of them are heartlands of White English ethnics, often where culture and immigration are or have been significant vote swingers. The Black Country, the Thames Estuary, the east coast, and more recently there was a very bad conspiracy to hurt children concentrated among some British Pakistanis in South Yorkshire. What I can't explain: Tyne Tees land (formerly known as the North-East Euroregion). The other phenomenon is LD collapse from 2nd or 3rd in a handful of constituencies where they had built a vote among natural Tories.

Why this all happened to help the incumbent Tories in 2017 is another question. My guess is that Ukip did unusually well among those voters in 2015, and they fell back to their "natural" home (since 1970).

Yes, most of these areas did have much higher-than-average UKIP support in 2015, so the higher pro-Tory swing wasn't really a surprise. The area around Newcastle is an exception, as you pointed out.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #69 on: April 29, 2018, 01:13:41 AM »

Was able to track down a proper set of notional results for 1970, so here is a map with swings for February 1974:




And for those who are interested, here's a 1970 notional map:

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