Results by Census Regions and Divisions
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  Results by Census Regions and Divisions
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Author Topic: Results by Census Regions and Divisions  (Read 6458 times)

excelsus
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« on: April 30, 2014, 09:33:20 AM »

I'm gonna start a new topic now:
Results by Census Regions and Divisions, using the official definitions by the Bureau of the Census:



I know that the classifications of Maryland, Delaware and D.C. are a bit divisive (not to say wrong), but I'll do it the official way.
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excelsus
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« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2014, 09:35:48 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2014, 08:38:56 AM by excelsus »

2012


Region
New England
Middle Atlantic

South Atlantic
East South Central
West South Central

East North Central
West North Central

Mountain West
Pacific West

Northeast
South
Midwest
West
Obama
59.11%
58.24%

50.18%
39.36%
39.97%

52.55%
46.42%

44.35%
58.79%

58.50%
45.71%
50.60%
54.07%
Romney
39.09%
40.33%

48.42%
59.28%
58.57%

45.76%
51.38%

53.02%
38.29%

39.96%
52.87%
47.55%
43.10%

2008



Region
New England
Middle Atlantic

South Atlantic
East South Central
West South Central

East North Central
West North Central

Mountain West
Pacific West

Northeast
South
Midwest
West
Obama
60.64%
58.72%

51.38%
41.02%
41.57%

55.83%
49.47%

47.46%
59.82%

59.27%
47.00%
53.82%
55.92%
McCain
37.53%
40.05%

47.52%
57.79%
57.36%

42.57%
48.71%

50.42%
37.90%

39.33%
51.89%
44.50%
41.85%

2004


Region
New England
Middle Atlantic

South Atlantic
East South Central
West South Central

East North Central
West North Central

Mountain West
Pacific West

Northeast
South
Midwest
West
Bush
40.80%
44.27%

52.82%
59.37%
60.32%

49.40%
53.76%

56.68%
45.16%

43.29%
56.06%
50.78%
48.71%
Kerry
57.70%
54.63%

46.38%
39.91%
38.97%

49.85%
45.16%

41.88%
53.42%

55.50%
43.17%
48.37%
49.86%


2000


Region
New England
Middle Atlantic

South Atlantic
East South Central
West South Central

East North Central
West North Central

Mountain West
Pacific West

Northeast
South
Midwest
West
Gore
56.14%
56.18%

47.15%
43.28%
39.92%

49.20%
44.33%

39.62%
51.87%

56.17%
44.35%
47.67%
48.32%

Bush
36.97%
39.99%

50.50%
54.90%
57.55%

47.66%
51.32%

54.72%
42.80%

39.11%
53.34%
48.81%
46.26%
Nader
5.63%
2.96%

1.46%
1.10%
1.66%

2.26%
3.12%

3.92%
4.15%

3.74%
1.45%
2.53%
4.09%


1992


Region
New England
Middle Atlantic

South Atlantic
East South Central
West South Central

East North Central
West North Central

Mountain West
Pacific West

Northeast
South
Midwest
West
Clinton
44.41%
46.75%

42.76%
43.76%
39.64%

42.92%
40.45%

36.29%
45.08%

46.06%
41.99%
42.15%
42.64%
Bush
31.68%
36.08%

41.31%
44.76%
40.44%

37.19%
36.26%

38.06%
32.72%

34.79%
41.68%
36.90%
34.21%
Perot
23.31%
16.51%

15.51%
10.95%
19.30%

19.38%
22.77%

24.06%
21.39%

18.51%
15.84%
20.44%
22.13%



1996



Region
New England
Middle Atlantic

South Atlantic
East South Central
West South Central

East North Central
West North Central

Mountain West
Pacific West

Northeast
South
Midwest
West
Clinton
56.77%
54.86%

47.69%
45.56%
45.86%

49.56%
45.89%

42.63%
50.36%

55.41%
46.76%
48.40%
48.15%
Dole
31.02%
34.81%

44.05%
47.20%
45.92%

39.82%
42.53%

46.39%
38.20%

33.71%
45.18%
40.68%
40.54%
Perot
10.10%
8.61%

7.50%
6.49%
7.41%

9.50%
10.19%

8.72%
7.53%

9.04%
7.29%
9.72%
7.87%

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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2014, 02:22:32 PM »
« Edited: May 01, 2014, 09:32:07 PM by DistingFlyer »

Here are maps showing the % margins by region & division for 1892-2012:

1892



1896



1900



1904



1908



1912



1916



1920



1924



1928



1932



1936



1940



1944



1948



1952



1956



1960



1964



1968



1972



1976



1980



1984



1988



1992



1996



2000



2004



2008



2012

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excelsus
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« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2014, 03:10:15 PM »

You're already finished? how cool ...
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2014, 03:10:48 PM »

Interesting to see Hoover winning every division in 1928.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2014, 04:05:47 PM »

Pretty interesting. '72 is the first time that the South is more Republican than the rest of the country, and it apparently fails to re-occur until 1988.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2014, 09:00:16 PM »

You're already finished? how cool ...

I'm not quite as quick as all that - I'd made them up some time ago but had never thought to put them up here.
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excelsus
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« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2014, 03:47:43 AM »

You're already finished? how cool ...

I'm not quite as quick as all that - I'd made them up some time ago but had never thought to put them up here.

That's really great work.
But would you mind making the maps a bit smaller? It's a bit confusing this way.
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excelsus
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« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2014, 03:57:51 AM »

There have been five presidents (since 1892) who won each division:

Hoover (1928)
Roosevelt (1932, 1936)
Nixon (1972)
Reagan (1980, 1984)
Bush Sr. (1988, lol)
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excelsus
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« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2014, 05:58:44 AM »

There have been only three third-party candidates (since 1982) who won a division:

Weaver in 1982 (Mountain West)
T. Roosevelt in 1912 (Pacific West)
Wallace in 1968 (East South Central)

None has won a region.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2014, 06:19:38 AM »

There have been five presidents (since 1892) who won each division:

Hoover (1928)
Roosevelt (1932, 1936)
Nixon (1972)
Reagan (1980, 1984)
Bush Sr. (1988, lol)

And only two instances where the loser won more divisions than the winner:
1896 - Bryan (5-4)
1960 - Nixon (5-4)

No loser has ever won three of four regions, but there have been six ties (five of them famously close elections):
1896
1916
1960
1976
2000
2004
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2014, 07:31:34 AM »

Pretty interesting. '72 is the first time that the South is more Republican than the rest of the country, and it apparently fails to re-occur until 1988.

It also happened in 1984:
Northeast - 55-44
South - 61-38
Midwest - 58-41
West - 60-39

The three northern regions collectively went for Reagan 58-42.
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shua
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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2014, 10:15:45 AM »

Those look really cool DistingFlyer!

might double check  84 and 88 for East South Central,  I think they were more Republican than that.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2014, 03:27:47 PM »

Those look really cool DistingFlyer!

might double check  84 and 88 for East South Central,  I think they were more Republican than that.

Have done so: East South Central was 59.8%-39.4% in 1984, and 58.0%-41.3% in 1988. The maps are correct.
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shua
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« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2014, 05:37:41 PM »

Those look really cool DistingFlyer!

might double check  84 and 88 for East South Central,  I think they were more Republican than that.

Have done so: East South Central was 59.8%-39.4% in 1984, and 58.0%-41.3% in 1988. The maps are correct.

I think you image-linked the division map from 1980 again in both cases.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #15 on: May 01, 2014, 09:23:26 PM »

Those look really cool DistingFlyer!

might double check  84 and 88 for East South Central,  I think they were more Republican than that.

Have done so: East South Central was 59.8%-39.4% in 1984, and 58.0%-41.3% in 1988. The maps are correct.

I think you image-linked the division map from 1980 again in both cases.

Ah, so I did - thank you. Will fix.
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excelsus
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« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2014, 08:31:19 AM »

It's a bit very strange to see Clinton lose the West South Central (albeit by an extremely close margin of 0.06%).
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cope1989
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« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2014, 10:41:50 PM »

I'm really surprised that Obama won the South Atlantic region in 2012. Maryland and Delaware must have put him over the edge, because besides that you have three big Romney states (GA, NC, SC), one state that Obama won decisively but not in a blowout (VA) and then FL, which was so close that the state really doesn't do much to move the overall vote in the region, despite its size.

In numerical terms (margin of victory):

Romney States
NC:  92,004
GA:  304,861
SC:  205,704
WV: 179,386
TOTAL: 781,995

Obama States
FL: 74,309
VA: 149,298
MD: 705,975
DE: 77,100
TOTAL: 1,006,682

Ok, yeah so it's definitely Maryland that gave the region to Obama. That's an amazing margin of victory in a relatively small state, but it's also a good argument that MD and maybe DE don't fit well into the region. The South Atlantic states from VA to FL could be described as lean GOP as a whole but when you add MD to the region it totally swings it. Kinda cool.

I Wish the electoral college was based on census regions because then I'd be living in a blue state!
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excelsus
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« Reply #18 on: May 08, 2014, 07:28:23 AM »

Ok, yeah so it's definitely Maryland that gave the region to Obama. That's an amazing margin of victory in a relatively small state, but it's also a good argument that MD and maybe DE don't fit well into the region. The South Atlantic states from VA to FL could be described as lean GOP as a whole but when you add MD to the region it totally swings it. Kinda cool.

Someone wrote that there were made attempts in the '70s to shift MD, DC and DE to the Middle Atlantic, but the Bureau of the Census wanted to keep consistency. Roll Eyes
Furthermore, West Virginia should be added to the East South Central.

I Wish the electoral college was based on census regions because then I'd be living in a blue state!

Hell no...
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #19 on: May 08, 2014, 11:55:29 AM »

It's interesting to compare 1956 to 1964.

Ok, yeah so it's definitely Maryland that gave the region to Obama. That's an amazing margin of victory in a relatively small state, but it's also a good argument that MD and maybe DE don't fit well into the region. The South Atlantic states from VA to FL could be described as lean GOP as a whole but when you add MD to the region it totally swings it. Kinda cool.

Someone wrote that there were made attempts in the '70s to shift MD, DC and DE to the Middle Atlantic, but the Bureau of the Census wanted to keep consistency. Roll Eyes

I don't understand the eye rolling. These divisions literally only exist for statistical purposes. Changing them makes comparing results impossible.
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excelsus
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« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2014, 11:53:33 PM »

Three [four] presidents didn't win their home division:

1892: Grover Cleveland
1916: Woodrow Wilson
[1968: Richard Nixon]
1992+1996 : Bill Clinton!!! Shocked
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« Reply #21 on: May 17, 2014, 02:27:50 AM »

No loser has ever won three of four regions,

Harrison 1892?
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excelsus
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« Reply #22 on: May 17, 2014, 08:27:16 AM »


Oh, indeed, you're right. Shocked
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Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
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« Reply #23 on: May 21, 2014, 02:11:34 AM »

Three [four] presidents didn't win their home division:

1892: Grover Cleveland
1916: Woodrow Wilson
[1968: Richard Nixon]
1992+1996 : Bill Clinton!!! Shocked

What about 1912 Theodore Roosevelt?

As for Clinton, two words: Ross Perot.
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excelsus
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« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2014, 02:46:16 PM »


T. Roosevelt lost the election that year.


No. Clinton's disadvantage was to live in division that contains Texas, which swallows the other three small states in terms of population.
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